Pakistan’s Unique Once-in-a-lifetime Demographic Dividend
Some worry about the astronomical rise of the population of Pakistan in the next few decades. India is supposed to be around 1.6 billion, and Pakistan’s Projected Population will be 228,800,000 in 2025 and 295,000,000 in 2050. The youth dividend can be used build the country. Pakistan will have the youngest population in the world.
With the discovery of Gold, Coal, Copper and Uranium worth hundreds of billions of Dollars in Reko Diq and other sites– the demographic dividend will be very critical to Pakistan.
Here are some excerpts from a paper on the demographic dividend for Pakistan Pakistan Development Review, Spring, 2008 by Durr-E-Nayab). The full article in published on stapins.org (http://stapins.org/2010/11/11/pakistans-demographic-dividend/) and this is published on Pakistan Patriot.
Although population of Pakistan is still increasing, the changing age structure offers it an opportunity to avail for economic growth.
Population growth and size have remained the focus of debate for centuries but the recent demographic transition in developing countries has made social scientists take note of the changing age structure of the population as well. As a result of declining population growth and consequent changes in age structure, the proportion of working-age population is increasing in most developing countries. An associated decline in the dependent age population offers a window of opportunity, referred to as the ‘demographic dividend’. Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, and is experiencing a once-in-a-lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines.
Ever since Malthus gave his apocalyptic views, in the late 18th century, on ever-increasing population and starvation, a debate has persisted over the relation between population growth and economic growth and development. Social scientists, mainly economists and demographers, continue to argue whether population growth encourages, discourages or is independent of economic growth. (1) The focus of this debate however has mainly remained confined to population size and growth, giving little consideration to the age structure of the population. Bringing age structure dynamics in this debate can be attributed to Coale and Hoover (1958), who argued that sustained high fertility and falling mortality make governments and households burdened with high youth dependency rates, lowering tax revenues and household savings, respectively.
Needless to say, fertility decline in Pakistan has lagged far behind many countries in Asia, even in South Asia. However, now that the demographic transition is finally taking place, corresponding changes are starting to appear in the age-structure of the population.
The Pakistani CBR (Crude Birth Rate) peaked at about 45 in the late 1970s to early 1980s, when the demographic transition took off and decreased to 30 births per 1000 population by the year 2006. By 2050 it is expected to almost half, at 16 births per 1000 population. The CDR has progressively declined from 24 deaths per 1000 population in 1950 to approximately eight in the year 2006. It will continue to decline before increasing again after year 2045.
The demographic dividend occurs when decline in birth rate, which normally follows mortality decline with the onset of the demographic transition, leads to changes in age structure of a population.
The essence of demographic dividend thus is that the young and the old tend to consume more than they produce, unlike working-age population, who contribute more to output and savings than they consume.
Consequently, the value of output per capita tends to increase when the population of working-age individuals is relatively large and tends to decrease when a relatively large part of the population consists of young and elderly dependents.
The East Asian countries were the first to complete the demographic transition outside the Western countries.
Korea’s experience of demographic transition can be taken as a case to illustrate the process of changing age-structure. Demographic transition in Korea followed a very steep path, turning one of the youngest populations out of the more developed economies in 1950s
Pakistan is also going through the demographic transition, with fertility rates finally showing a declining trend. It is now experiencing a once in a lifetime demographic dividend as the working-age population bulges and the dependency ratio declines.
Can we use this, or let it digress into a demographic disaster? Of course the focus of the enemy is to let this demographic boon deteriorate itself into a demographic disaster.
Pakistan’s economic performance during the last three decades has been impressive with the real GNP growing at an average rate of six percent per annum.
This is why they hate us?
But what is happening in Europe and Russia? Here is an alarmist view that is responsible for much of the panic and racism in Europe (Minaret bans, Opposition to Mosques, and head-scarf bans).
“The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and Muslims our soldiers…”
The above statement is not from the head of the Jamaat e Islami– they were thundered by the Prime Minister of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the so called ‘Secular’ Turkey.
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- Population: Thinking about our Future (theoildrum.com)
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