Posted on 16 June 2008.
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US-Iran eyeball to eyeball: Who blinked?
Have the dogs of war gone away in Iran? Has Israel ben kept at bay? Will the US make peace with Iran? These are the questions in front of President Barack Obama. Here are some data points that are very important.
The Bush Administration’s sanctions have not worked. In fact, they brought Iran closer to the Palestinians. So what are the reasons for the change in American policy? Apparently Washington thought it over and decided that the US cannot fight four wars at the same time. With the fiasco in Lebanon, Iraq on slow cook, and oil reaching $150 a barrel the Bush legacy was in serious jeopardy of being remembered only for $50 per gallon of oil (just like the Carter presidency is remembered only for 24% interests).
With an armistice with Iran, the US may continue its war in Afghanistan with ferocity and Iran may stay neutral—and actually may help the NATO effort by assisting the Indians who are building a road to connect their Chahbahar port to Kabul and beyond.
Peace hasn’t broken out in the Gulf. The US and Israel may take advantage of the geopolitical situation when and if they deem it in their interests. Right now it seems that the US has determined that Afghanistan is more important.
Reporting from Washington — The Obama administration has decided to retain the official who led the Bush administration’s effort to squeeze Iran with economic sanctions, providing an important clue on how it intends to approach the Islamic Republic. Stuart Levey, Treasury Department undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, will remain in his post, officials said. Levey has overseen an effort to dissuade international banks from dealing with Iranian government agencies and firms that U.S. officials believe support terrorism or help defy U.N. resolutions on nuclear nonproliferation. Obama administration keeps Bush official involved with Iran sanctions. Stuart Levey was part of efforts for global financial boycotts. By Paul Richter February 3, 2009
In the first sign of a clear policy shift on Iran, the Obama Administration is planning to accept Iran as a Nuclear Power with strict controls.
Three allies – Britain, Germany, and France – have spent five years talking to Iran about ending its nuclear program, only to fail. Those talks did perhaps deflect a possible attack on Iranian atomic facilities by Israel or the Bush administration. But they resulted in only limited United Nations-approved sanctions on the Islamic regime. And this “EU-3″ group of negotiators did finally set a condition that Iran must suspend its nuclear quest before talks resume. Now Mr. Obama wants to drop that precondition. This new US position makes some in Europe wonder if the new president may end up not being tough enough on Iran or may even be ready to accept it developing atomic weapons. But Obama’s message to Europe is this: Talking with Iran will help bring more support for tougher sanctions applied by even more countries, and thus help prevent a military confrontation. China, for instance, still supplies Iran with much of what it needs. The Christian Science Monitor, Feb 1st, 2009
The bluster of “all options are on the table”, and Badminton team going to Iran all is quiet in the Gulf. Apparently the Americans in a 180 degree U-turn decided to meet with the “axis of evil” terrorist state and then all of sudden we hear that the epitome of evil Mr. Ahemedinijad will be presented with the resume of a US diplomat stationed in Tehran. Tehran? TEHRAN? Yes Tehran, the very same capital of the country that took over the US Embassy and threw trash out in the American flag after walking over it.
Hamas’s leader-in-exile, Khaled Meshal, spoke Monday at Tehran University, where he thanked Iran for its support during the recent Israeli offensive in Gaza. “I thank Iran for its official, unofficial and public support,” Mr. Meshal said. “You are our partner in this victory.” Iran is a major supporter of Hamas, and its Parliament has pledged to rebuild the Palestinian Parliament building in Gaza. The New York Times.
The NEI however estimates that the window of opportunity is fast passing and may already have passed. Because of the wasted effort in Iraq and because all of NATO is bogged down in Afghanistan, there may be little appetite for new wars.
In sharp contrast to the NEI report, the US intelligence is sending other warning signals. “We judge with moderate confidence that the earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon in late 2009,” U.S. National Intelligence director Michael McConnell said. “But that is very unlikely.”
The Joint Chiefs of Staff know the Iraq War has almost broken the US Army. Wouldn’t they adamantly oppose the notion of an attack on Iran, which would see Shiite resistance groups in Iraq cut US supply convoys from Kuwait bringing fuel and water to the big US bases? Wouldn’t Shiite forces as a whole finally commence a campaign of eviction of the American occupier? Wouldn’t this puncture the fantasy that General Petraeus’ “surge” is working? Will the US Really Bomb Iran? By ALEXANDER COCKBURN
Iran’s fatal mistakes in Afghanistan paved the way NATO intervention and created an atmosphere for the Israeli attacks on Iran. Iran not only accommodated the US actions in Afghanistan, it actually allowed the US actions in Afghanistan, it actually helped the US.
Did Iran invite the israeli attack?
The Iranian bourse opened in 2008. Are we looking at a perfect storm that began on Feb 11th, 2008.
Has the danger passed?
The headache for the Bush administration in South America is turning into a migraine. The minor rash called Iran is turning to lifelong allergies. From Venezuela to Ecuador to Cuba anti-Americanism is…
History is a strange thing. Some people know it all, ’til their paradigm is shattered. Historians are still squabbling over how America got involved in WW2. Americans think that it was Pearl Harbor–an unprovoked attack without a declaration of war. The Japanese insist that a food and oil embargo enforced on a starving Japan with a US Naval blockade was the actual declaration of war. The Japanese insist that Pearl Harbor was an act of self preservation, a way to break the embargo and feed itself.
Many in the world think that the Iranian Oil bourse was a declaration of war on the Almighty Dollar. Many think that the rhetoric against Israel is a call for war by Teheran.
“All preparations have been made to launch the bourse; it will open during the 10-day Dawn (the ceremonies marking the victory of the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran) The bourse is considered a direct threat to the continued global dominance of the dollar because it will require that Iranian “oil, petrochemicals and gas” be traded in “non-dollar currencies.”[Press TV, Iran] Iranian Finance Minister Davoud Danesh-Jafari
This is serious business.
Many believed that the USA would go to war to protect the Dollar. It did not. The USA attacked Iraq, six months after Saddam Husein had switched to the Euro. Counting the days after tomorrow, there are barely six months left for the Lame Duck president to execute a war with Iran. The new thinking was a massive attack on Iran.
“They’re about taking out the entire Iranian military.”
This particular spine-chiller comes from Alexis Debat, excitingly identified as “director of terrorism and national security” at the Nixon Center. According to Debat, the big takeout is what the U.S. Air Force has in store, as opposed to mere “pinprick strikes” against the infamous nuclear facilities.
Predicting imminent war on Iran has been one of the top two items in Cassandra’s repertoire for a couple of years now, rivaled only by global warming as a sure-fire way to sell newspapers and boost website hits.
Debat was re-roasting that well-scorched chestnut, the “Shock and Awe” strategy, whereby-back in March of 2003-the U.S. Air Force proposed to reduce Iraq’s entire military to smoldering ruins. In the event, “Shock and Awe” was a resounding failure, like all such pledges by Air Force commanders to destroy the enemy’s military since the birth of aerial bombardments nearly a century ago. Such failures have never stopped the US Air Force from trying once again, and there are no doubt vivid attack plans now circulating the government. Will the US Really Bomb Iran? By ALEXANDER COCKBURN
With direct contact made with the Iranians the dogs of war seem to have passed. The US does not have the bandwidth to fight in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq.
In 2008 India launched a Iran specific satellite for the Israelis. India’s traditionally friendly relations with Iran have come under unprecedented strain because of the launching of an Israeli spy satellite by an Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) rocket. This comes in addition to recent tensions caused by India’s refusal to attend talks to complete a commercial deal on a proposed Iran-India-Pakistan gas pipeline. The satellite, launched a fortnight ago, is equipped with a synthetic aperture radar, which captures images of small as well as large objects day and night while penetrating cloud cover. It is widely believed to be designed to enable Israel to track activities in its neighborhood, in particular, activities pertaining to Iran’s nuclear program. Praful Badawai Asia Times
India built four consulates and 13 “Information Centers” in Afghanistan ostensibly to keep track of Pakistan. These listening posts are actually keeping track of and monitoring Iran. During the 90s Iran played a game with India in supporting the Northern Alliance. This kept Afghanistan in chaos and allowed the OBLs of the world to take control of some of the key areas. Iran worked against the interests of the Pakhtuns and against the allies of Pakistan. Eventually the Pakhtuns were able to overwhelem the Iranian and Indian supported bases but Iran’s negative role paved the way for the NATO and ISAF forces to enter and remain in Afghanistan. Initially Iran worked with the Americans to remove the Pakhtuns from power. If Iran is invaded by Israel or the USA, Iran has to blame itself for working against the interests of the Pakhtuns.
India was building the Iranian port of Chahbahar and also building the roads and rail links all the way up to Afghanistan. All of Iran is infested with RAW-Mossad agents sending information on every move Iran makes.
India vs. Pakistan–Gwador vs. Chabahar.
NATO forces are being increased in Afghanistan, ostensibly to quell the resurgence of the Taliban. Spy vs. Spy: Kabul, London, Delhi, Islamabad and Swat. Taliban prepare for Spring
Iranian target maps. Don’t wait for the attack to begin on Iran. The war has already started and Iran has been facing the brunt of this for years. The Government of Baluchistan setup in the Middle Eastern capital along with support to Jundallah as well as the Kurds, Arabs (Khuzistan) and the Baluch are only some of the insurgencies raging in Iran.
The Jundallah, the terror group operating inside Iran recently changed its name to “Peoples Resistance Movement Of Iran” (PRMI). Various Jandallah spies were arrested in Pakistan. Iran claims that the group is funded by the $250,000,000 that Congress has allocated for covert actions in Iran. The covert actions have been conducted in Sistan-Baluchistan and also in Khuzistan (Arabistan) provinces of Iran.
Though many think that war is a distant possibility, Israelis are not taking any chances.
“Israel calls for shelter rooms to be set up in a bid to prepare the public for yet another war, this time, one of raining missiles.” [Press TV, Iran]
“The next war will see a massive use of ballistic weapons against the whole of Israeli territory,” claimed retired general Udi Shani. [Global Research]
In the best signal yet, the US is opening up people to people contacts with Teheran.
WASHINGTON (JTA) — The United States is sending a team to a women’s badminton tournament in Iran.
A delegation of 12 Americans, including eight athletes, coaches and managers, will participate in the Fajr International Badminton Tournament from Feb. 5-8, at the invitation of the Iranian Badminton Federation, the U.S. State Department said.
The delegation is part of “people-to-people” outreach launched by the Bush administration and aimed at cultivating support even as tensions simmer between the two governments over Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. U.S. sending badminton team to to Iran, February 3, 2009 Jewish Telgraphic Agency
Map of US facilities around Iran
Late last year, Congress agreed to a request from President Bush to fund a major escalation of covert operations against Iran, according to current and former military, intelligence, and congressional sources. These operations, for which the President sought up to four hundred million dollars, were described in a Presidential Finding signed by Bush, and are designed to destabilize the country’s religious leadership. The covert activities involve support of the minority Ahwazi Arab and Baluchi groups and other dissident organizations. They also include gathering intelligence about Iran’s suspected nuclear-weapons program.
1) Iran will block the Gulf of Hormuz pushing the price of oil from $250 per barrel (the day the attack starts) to $500 per barrel when the Gulf of Hormuz is blocked. This translates to at least $50 or more for a gallon of gasoline at the pump.
2) Sorties of small gun boats armed with Exocet copies will be unleashed at the American Air carft carriers creating huge casualties for America. Iran has honed a swarming tactic, in which small and lightly armed speedboats come at far larger warships from different directions.
3) Shahab missles from hardened silos will begin reaining down on American Air bases as well as on Israel proper. Iran has already affirmed that it will target Israel’s Dimona reactor. Nuclear leaks from the reactor may unleash another holocaust for Jews and Arabs alike.
- 4) Hizbullah will begin raining Qasam rockets on Northern israel and apparently had the ability to target as far south as Tel Aviv. During the war in Labanon, all of Norhtern Israel spent more than a month in shelters. This time it may be worse.
5) Israel’s worst nighmare may be a full scale attack by Syria as well as from the Palestinians in Jordan, West bank and Gaza.
6) Muqtada Sadar and other pro-Iranian groups in Baghdad will rise up in rebellion in Iraq and make life hard not only for the pro-Iranian Maliki government but also for the forces in occupation. Iraq is declared a pro-Iranian Islamic republic.
7) The Pakhtuns may rally and attack Kabul and overthrow the Vichey government of Mr. Hamid Karzai. NATO and ISAF unable to sustain the farce of an Afghan government pack up and go home.
A nuclear attack on Iran may change things forever. The soaring oil pricies beyond $50 per gallon bring unmentionable misery on the innocent people throughtout the world. American trasnportation comes to a halt and air conditioned homes and offices are left without comfort. Hospitals are unable to provide services and schools are closed.
9) The world as we know it comes to an end.
US air bases aour Iran are targets for Iranian retaliation
Iran threatens to hit 32 US bases, Israel
Map of possible war with Iran