Posted on 19 January 2011. Tags: biden
- Post-Biden Analysis
He came, he saw but he didn’t conquer. Vice President biden came to Islamabad and tried to say all the right things. The news emanating from Pakistan seems to indicate that Islamabad is not buying most of what he said. The troika of leadership in Pakistan is skeptical of US intentions and leery of American moves in Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the post-Wiki era, almso
Pakistan’s leadership does not appear to be convinced with US Vice President Joseph Biden’s clarifications about their concerns, adjudging them to be contradictory to ground realities.
The Vice President of the US made a pit-stop in Islamabad to discuss the endgame in Afghanistan and to explore what would it take to get Pakistan and the Pakistani military establishment to extend wholehearted cooperation to the US and give it a face saving exit from Afghanistan.
Vice President Josepeh Biden is a friend of Pakistan has mens well. However he is often over-ruled by President Obama and his sagacious advice not taken by the US Administration.
Despite his good credentials and obvious good feelings for Pakistan, Islamabad was in no mood to listen to American lectures.
The face-saving exercise entailed words to win over the Pakistani leadership. Joseph Biden tried to dispel some of the Pakistani fears and “misconceptions about US actions and … intentions”. It turns out that he did not have much success in Islamabad.
Pakistan doesn’t want aid, it want more trade. It wants the US to dismantle its protective barriers built up to ward off high quality Pakistani Textiles. This has not happened in a decade.
The US Vice President wasn’tt be able to show progress on the FA or the ROZ, so he extended “support to Pakistan to help strengthen its economy, improve governance and security, and respond to its development needs.”
Pakistan has been losing $20 billion per year ever since the US began its invasion in Afghanistan. There is nothing that the US can offer to make amends for the 30,000 Pakistani dead, or the permeation of the Klashnikov culture into Pakistani society. Islamabad demanded early disbursement of annual US 1.5 billion dollar financial assistance, much of which has been diverted for Flood Relief Activities in 2010 and 2011.
According to reports in the Pakistan media “These apprehensions, which were conveyed by Army chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani to President Barack Obama, included the perceived US interest in transactional nature of ties with Pakistan; that war on terror had been imposed on Pakistan; alleged violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty by the US; supposed US disrespect for Islam; much-touted American inner desire to defang and destabilise Pakistan; and its supposed indifference to Pakistan’s strategic concerns particularly vis-à-vis India.”
The Pakistanis did not hold back the punches. Islamabad has listed Pakistan’s issues. “A senior official in a background briefing on Saturday pointed to Mr Obama’s security strategy envisioning a greater role for India and Japan for Asian security and stability, and the growing support for Indian bid for UN Security Council’s permanent seat as an indicator of a major shift in the dynamics of world order.” These are the issues that irk Pakistan. It is amazing that Washington doesn’t quiet get it.
If mutual trust has to be built that the US has to drop its India-Centric approach in South Asia and come to terms with the new reality in Pakistan. Pakistan will not allow a Bharati presence in Afghanistan, and will not act against the interest of China. For Pakistan, its prime relationship for the next century is with China not the US. After Premier Wen visited Pakistan, and announced $20 billion in investment, there is nothing that VP Biden can to do match that. US aid will be to further the potency of the Pakistani army so that it can assist ISAF–thats it, nothing more, nothing less. Pakistanis know that. They will not antagonize the Americans–they are simply biding time. Under the table all Pakistanis will be counting 180, 179, 178–days left when the Americans begin leaving Afghanistan. Pakistan will not change direction. Its Foreign policy and long term strategic goals are on track.
Dawn reports that “US ‘exceptionalism’ was evident in this case.
He went on to caution against economically squeezing Pakistan, destabilizing it and disturbing the societal balance. ‘Our message is that do not try to turn Pakistan into a battlefield,’ the official said, mentioning incidents in Karachi, Data Darbar bombing, sectarian strife and bomb attacks as part of what could be described as an international conspiracy.”
VP Biden has rushed to Islamabad tofind out what is going on with the regional conference on Afghanistan and the talks with the Talibs. Mr. Biden is concerned that Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are working with Afghanistan without US sponsorship. Mr. Biden’s visit is significant as it follows the visit of Burhanuddin Rabbani, head of Afghan High Council for Peace, who met Pakistani leaders to discuss a future course of Afghanistan–all in preperation for announced July pull out.
Islamabad knows that the US is putting the economic squeeze on Pakistan. “The IMF has not released any tranche under its standby arrangement since June and is yet to disburse about $3.5 billion under the programme, while disbursements under the Kerry-Lugar Act are also slow to come. Besides, a large portion of commitments made at a donors’ conference in Tokyo are also yet to be realised. These and snail paced Coalition Support Fund reimbursements have all compounded Pakistan’s economic woes.”All these actions have created a mindset in Pakistan which is not conducive to a “Strategic partnership”. While Pakistan discussed “strategic alignment’ the US was seen as unreliable.
A similar message, though diplomatically couched, was evident in Foreign Secretary Salman Bashir’s meeting with a Congressional delegation, led by Senator Mitch McConnell.
“The foreign secretary underlined that the global landscape was in a flux and that it was necessary for Pakistan and the US to work closely with each other in order to be on the same page on issues of mutual concern and interest.”
Pakistan, which had suffered immensely from the long war in Afghanistan, needed a sustained support from its friends, especially the US, to address multiple challenges. Whether the US would be forthcoming in its help, it was very clear the the Pakistanis would not be swayed by words. Only actions is what Pakistan believes.
Posted in Current Affairs, Pak CA, Politics, US CA, US Int Rel., US Poli
Posted on 19 January 2011. Tags: biden
- Biden’s sanity vs. Petraeus jingoism
There are two schools of thought in the US. Actually there are zillions, but two major camps seem to be emerging on the Afghan war strategy. One the one hand we have defeated Generals who are trying to justify their incompetence, and on the other hand we have politicians who understand the politics of elections and want to make sure that the Obama presidency is not cut short to one term. Vice President has a stake in the success of President Obama, because his own political career depends on Obama winning the elections.
Vice President Obama’s visit to Islamabad this week gives us a deep insight into American foreign policy and its future direction in West Asia. Mr. Biden is deeply respected in Pakistan and he has a lot of equity with the military and political establishment in Islamabad. Ms. Hillary Clinton with her penchant for loose talk does not command respect or awe in Pakistan.
President Obama’s decision to send VP Biden to Pakistan was a good omen for Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan. VP Biden has been a strong proponent for ending the insanity of the war in the Hindu Kush.
Mr. Biden’s meeting with Ambassador Karl Eikenberry was specially poignant. Eikenberry has been instrumental in asking for a withdrawal and he as a strong opponent of the surge. Mr. Biden met with Eikenberry to chart out the future course of action–because both of them don’t buy the Petraeus rhetoric on how well the war is going in Afghanistan.
Vice President Joe Biden has been bucking for reconciliation with the the Taliban to end the war. He agrees with General Kayani that the Talibs do not pose any real threat to the US national security interests.
General David Petraeus who has his own presidential ambitions wants and intensification of the war so that he can claim he defeated the Talibs.
General Petraeus want to stay in the long war while the Obama and Biden camps are bucking for a face saving exit. Wikileaks, Woodwards’ book (Obama’s War) and statements by President Obama clearly shed light on President Obama’s intention to get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible.
Many analysts really believe that the Vice President’s current trip may be decisive in sowing the seeds of sanity, and sustainable peace in Afghanistan.
One did not get the impression about President Obama’s thinking while he was in Delhi, but some think that the Obama administration has realized that Pakistan’s concerns are not being addressed. Mr. Biden’s speeches in Islamabad can be seen as mending fences with Pakistan. Loose lips sinks ships. Mrs Clinton cannot make up her mind, whether she is a Viceory or a Secretary of State. She is unable to grasp the limits of US power, and she has no inkling about the regional dynamics in South Asia. Her paranoia about Bharat and here inability to listen to genuine concerns of the Pakistanis stand out as great impediment to peace in Khyber. Since Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has lost all credibility in Pakistan she did not make the trip to Islamabad. VP Biden, rather than Ms. Hillary Clinton has been assigned articulate its long-term strategy for the region.
That being said–perhaps the Americans were playing “Good Cop and Bad Cop”, with Mrs. Clinton as the Bad Cop and Mr. Biden as the Good Cop.
The Washington Post had reported that Mr. Biden would increase aid to Pakistan. This did not happen-though who knows the workings of the US military and what it does with inter-military transfers.
Biden doesn’t quite believe General Patreaus and thinks that the so called success was “fragile and reversible.” Kabul, Washington and Islamabad agree that 2011 marks the beginning of the transition. 2014, despite the rhetoric will make the end of the Afghan adventure.
Biden’s his primary focus was on Afghanistan’s peace and reconciliation process. He wanted hear first hand the bottom line of the Pakistanis. Islamabad told him that it wants a friendly government in Kabul sans Bharati influences. What Biden does with the information will describe peace in Afghanistan or perpetual mimetic war. His decisions will direct the future of US foreign policy and determine who will be in the White House in the next elections.
Islamabad holds the key to both–so its in the driver’s seat.
Posted in Current Affairs, Pak CA, Politics, US CA, US Poli
Posted on 16 April 2008. Tags: 1947, 5 Es, AAJ, Abu Dhabi, Afghan, Afghania, Ali Bhutto, Aliph, Allied forces, America, America–Sweet Land of Liberty, Amin Fahim, Ann Coulter, Arabs, ARY, ARY One World, ARY TV, ARYOneWorld, Asif Ali Zardari, Asif Zardari, Asifa, Asrar Ahmad, Assassination, Athens, Azhar, Bakhtawar, Benazir, Benazir Bhutto, Bhutto, Bible, biden, Bilawal Bhutto, Bombay constituency, Bombay presidency, Brahmin, Brazil, Britain CA, British Empire, Carnage, Chaudhry Rehmat Ali, Chaudhry Shujaat, CIA, CNN, Communication skills, Cowri, Current Affairs, Current Affairs of America, David Horowitz, Dawn, Democracy, Dinar, Dr. Ghamdi, Dr. Shahid Mahmud, Dubai, Durand Line, education, Election Commission of Pakistan, Elections, Elections in Pakistan, Eliminate Durand Line, Emersen, employment, Empty promises, energy, England, English, environemnt, equality, Faiza Dawood, Fatima Bhutto, Flour, Foreign Investment, Fox, Gandhi, GEO, Geo TV, Gert Wilders, Ghinwa Bhutto, Guru Nanak, Hafiz Saeed, Hamid Mir, Hamilton, Hindi, Hindu Mahasaba, History, History of Pakistan, History of Urdu, House of Lords, http://www.BLOGSOFPAKISTAN.COM, http://www.PAKBLOGESPHERE.COM, http://www.PAKBLOGSPHERE.COM, http://www.PAKISTANBLOGSPHERE.COM, http://www.PakistaniBloggers.com, http://www.PakistanLedger.com, http://www.PakPunch.com, http://www.RupeeNews.com, http://www.RupiNews.com, Hussain Haqqani, Imarn Khan, Imran Khan, Independence, India, Indian, Investment, Irshad Manji, ISI, Jamaat e Islami, Jang, Javed Iqbal, Jefferson, Jemima Khan, JF-17 Thunder, Jinnah, John, Kalachi jo goth, Kama Sutra, Kamran Khan, Karachi, Kashif Abbasi, Kauri, Khalid Malik, Killed, Kissinger, Kodi, Koran, Lahore, Language skills, Lashkar e Mohammadi, Lashkar e Taiba, Lashkar e Toiba, Letters, Liaqat bagh, Liaquat Bagh, Locke, Lord nazir, Lover, Machiavelli, Madison, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, manzil nahin nishan e manzil hai, Marina Khan, Mashriq, Media, Molana Masood Azhar, MQM, Mr. 10%, Ms. Faiza Dawood, Ms. Shaista Wahidi, Muhammad, Muhammadi, Mumbai, Musharraf, muslim league, Nadia Khan, Naheed Khan, Naqai e Waqt, National Assembly, National Assembly of Pakistan, National Language Authority, Nawaz Sharif, Nehru, Now Dero Feroz, Now or Never, Nuclear Bombs, Nuclear proliferation, Nukes, Occidental Urban Legands, Oriental Myths, Paine, Paisas, Pakistan, Pakistan Election Commission, Pakistan International Airlines, Pakistan Muslim League, Pakistan National Language Authority, Pakistan Television, Pakistani Americans, Pakistani bloggers, Pakistani Britishers, Pakistani elections, Pakistani fighter plane, Pakistani Nukes, Pakistanis refuse to call is “partition”. It was a, Panja Sahib, Peloponesia War, Pervaiz Ilahi, Pervez, Pervez Ilahi, PIA, PML (N), PML (Q), Political Science, Politics, Politics of Pakistan, PPP, Prices, Prime Minister, Prince, PTV, Punjab, Punjabi, Quran, Rahman Malik, Rai, Rawalpindi, Rawalpindi Epress, Rehman, Riots, Robert Spencer, RSS, Rupee, Rupees, Sanam Bhutto, Sarhad, Savage, Seductress, Selective Amnesia of Americans: Pakistan is the most mi, Senate, Senate of Pakistan, Sex, SEX LIFE OF MRS INDIRA GANDHI, Shaharyar Azhar, Shahbaz Sharif, Shaikh Rasheed, Sherry Rehman, Shoab Akhtar, Shujaat Hussain, Sikhs, Sind, Sindh, Socrates, South Asia, South Asian History, Sparta, Subcontinent, talat Husain, Talat Hussain, Taliban, Taslima Nasrin, Television, Terrorism, The real scoop, The States, Tubelight, Two Nation Theory, UAE, Unitarianism and Islam, United States of America, Urban Myths, Urdu, Urdu Newspapers, Urdu proficiency of Pakistani Politicians. Urdu, US, US Aid, USA, USA. Islam, War on Terror, Watandost, Were the American Founding Fathers Muslim? Deism, Western press, Wheat, Worst Islamphobe, Zardari, Zulfiqar Ali, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Jr., Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto Junior
Triple Aid to Pakistan is not enough. Aid should be 20 times that number. Compensation for lost opportunities is separate.
Pakistan has lost about $10 Billion per year (DOD calcualtion) plus opportunity costs. That alone in lost money is $100 Billion. The lost opportunity costs is 10 times that amount.
Invoice for Defeating terror, Securing Pakistani Nukes $150 Billion per annum.
Pakistan was unfairly sanctioned during the 80s and this allowed Korea and others to get ahead. Wish list of Pakistani people. More than 1000 Pakistanis have been killed. Pakistani Cheese for Western “Whine”
This aid deal is inadequate. Turkey was offered $38 Billion for attacking Iraq. Egypt’s $35 Billion debt was forgiven. Israel gets Billions.
The USA should wipe Pakistan’s $38 Billion debt, and confirm Pakistan’s sovereignty.
Pakistan needs 1000 hospitals, 100,000 shools, 1000 new universities, 5 new dams, freeways, and nuclear power plants. This open ended war is bad for the country.
Let us hope the PPP and the PMLN does not sell the country’s soul for a few Dollars.
On deconstructing the wrong paradigm of the USA media
Pakistanis want to hear “Thank You” from the ingrate Americans. Nothing is good enough!
Pakistanis to USA: We want “Friends Not Masters”
Pakistan US Relations should be normal not transactional
On inadequate US Aid to Pakistan
US offers Pakistan government $7bn in non-military aid to fight terrorism
· Civilian cabinet told drone air strikes will be curbed
· New strategy marks break with Musharraf and army
This article appeared in the Guardian on Thursday April 17 2008 on p17 of the International section. It was last updated at 00:02 on April 17 2008.
The US has promised to curb air strikes by drones against suspected militants in Pakistan, as part of a joint counter-terrorism strategy agreed with the new civilian government in Islamabad, the Guardian has learned. That strategy will be supported by an aid package potentially worth more than $7bn (£3.55bn), which is due to go before Congress for approval in the next few months.
The package would triple the amount of American non-military aid to Pakistan, and is aimed at “redefining” the bilateral relationship, US officials say.
Pakistan will also be given a “democracy dividend” of up to $1bn, a reward for holding peaceful elections and forming a coalition government. Of that, $200m could be approved in the next few days.
The aid package, being put together by the Democratic senator Joseph Biden, will mark a decisive break in US policy on Pakistan, which for much of the past nine years focused on President Pervez Musharraf and the Pakistani military as Washington’s primary partners in the “war on terror”. Officials in Washington said yesterday that the shift had already been made.
“Senator Biden wants to show the relationship is much broader than a military one, and that we are willing to sustain it over time,” one of the senator’s senior aides said yesterday.
A US administration official said: “Each day Musharraf’s influence becomes less and less. Civilians are in control. People aren’t meeting with Musharraf any more … we are very pleased with the new civilian government.”
Pakistani officials say much of the new counter-terrorism aid will be spent on civilian law enforcement institutions, such as the interior ministry, the intelligence bureau and the federal investigation agency, rather than being channelled almost exclusively through the army and the military-run Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) organisation.
The new government says it has also won American support for its policy of opening a dialogue with Pashtun tribes along the Afghan border, led by an ethnic Pashtun group, the Awami National party, that is part of the government coalition.
The new understanding on air strikes by US Predator drones is seen in Islamabad as a critical benchmark for the new relationship.
In January senior US intelligence officials flew to Islamabad and struck an agreement with Musharraf to give the American military a freer hand in the use of Predators against targets in Pakistan’s tribal areas, which have become havens for al-Qaida and other foreign jihadists as well as Taliban forces fighting Nato forces and the government in Afghanistan.
The subsequent increase in Predator strikes – estimates of the number range up to eight – caused outrage in Pakistan. Britain also broke with Washington over the reliance on air strikes often guided by uncertain intelligence.
Pakistani officials say they have been given assurances by Washington that there will be close consultation with the civilian government, not with Musharraf, before any future strikes.
However, the use of Predators is held as a closely guarded secret and US intelligence is reluctant to share information about targets, and there is some scepticism in Islamabad over whether the deal will stick.
“We’ll have to take them at their word, won’t we,” said the new information minister, Sherry Rahman, in an interview in Islamabad. She added that Washington’s previous emphasis on ties to Musharraf and the Pakistani military “hasn’t provided the results that were supposed to happen on the ground”.
The US has given Pakistan about $10bn in military aid during the past seven years, but it has not diminished the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, while Pakistani extremism is also on the rise. Some officials in Washington believe most of the money has been used to build up Pakistan’s conventional forces for use in a possible future conflict with India, rather than spent on counter-insurgency.
Furthermore, much of the money being used for counter-terrorism is being misspent, both Pakistan and US government officials say. As an example they say that Musharraf distributed the $25m reward money for capturing or killing “high value” al-Qaida targets in the form of an “inverted pyramid”.
“A few thousand would go to the police constable on the ground who actually spotted the guy, but the millions go to the generals up the chain,” a Pakistani official said. No wonder, he added, that the tip-offs stopped coming in and the number of high-profile arrests dropped.
The New Deal
· $1.5bn a year in civilian aid for at least five years
· $1bn “democracy dividend” as a reward for holding elections and forming a coalition government
· Counter-terrorism aid will be performance-based
· The Pakistani government will be consulted before any further air strikes against militants on Pakistani soil by US unmanned “Predator” aircraft
· More counter-terrorism assistance will be given to civilian law-enforcement and intelligence organisations
Posted in Current Affairs, Pak CA, US CA
Posted on 15 April 2008. Tags: Afghan, biden, Iraq CA, Pakistan
The Mongols tried it. The Mecadonians tasted it. The British were defeated. The Soviets left Afghanistan. What would 100,000 American troops be able to do in Afghanistan which 150,000 plus Soviet troops could not do?BIDEN: Mr. Ambassador, is Al Qaeda a greater threat to US interests in Iraq, or in the Afghan-Pakistan border region?
CROCKER: Mr. Chairman, al Qaeda is a strategic threat to the United States wherever it is-
BIDEN: Where is most of it? If you could take it out, you had a choice, the Lord Almighty came down and sat in the middle of the table there, and said, ‘Mr. Ambassador, you can eliminate every al Qaeda source in Afghanistan and Pakistan, or every al Qaeda personnel in Iraq, which would you pick?’
CROCKER: Well, given the progress that has been made against al Qaeda in Iraq, the significant decrease in its capabilities, the fact that it is solidly on the defensive and not in a position as far-
BIDEN: Which would you pick?
CROCKER: I would therefore pick Al Qaeda in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border area.
Joe Biden wants to pick either Iraq of Afghanistan to go after? Mr. Crocker the current Ambassador to Iraq and the former Ambassador to Pakistan attempted to say yes, but was forced into picking one or the other. Mr. Crokcer picked the Pakistan-Afghanistan border
Posted in Current Affairs, US CA, US Int Rel.
