THE REPERCUSSIONS OF MEDDLING IN PAKISTAN IS A SPECTACULAR BLOWBACK THAT SHOULD NOT BE TRIED!

Pakistani Nukes on the Move by Ahmad Qureshi
The mere suggestion that the “CIA” (includes all agencies) “knows” realties on the ground in Pakistan is laughable. The Pakistanis are not stupid. They are fully aware of American plans. The Hindukush mountains, the Himalyas, the inhospitable deserts, and the plains offer huge sites for hiding small missiles and the large terrain and cannot be bombed out of existence.

Do we have similar plans for Britain, France and Israel or is this nonsense reserved for the “little brown boys” of Pakistan. This entire train of thought is racist and bigoted.

Pakistan developed a nuclear program as a result of the 1971 debacle (half the country was lost) when the USA failed to help Pakistan despite membership of CENTO and SEATO and two executive defense agreements. Pakistanis pledged “never again” and wanted to defend their freedom and their land.

Pakistanis helped the USA in her war with the USSR. Pakistan was sanctioned as a reward for the defeat of the USSR in Afghanistan and it’s ultimate implosion.

Ingrates in the administration should appreciate Pakistan and Pakistani measures to support the USA.

From SEATO, CENTO to the destruction of the USSR, Pakistan has been an ally. This is no way to treat an ally. Pakistan has more than 30,000 scientists working in the nuclear field. Entire universities are devoted to materials and nuclear research. To think that all depends on the much maligned Mr. Khan is stupid and silly. Mr. Khan is a hero is Pakistan and Pakistanis developed the bomb when Pakistan was under sanctions (by its allies of the cold war). The program at the time was clandestine, and no one is sorry that a nuclear program was developed.

Historical records are full of “CIA” incompetence.

1) The “CIA” failed to see the implosion of the USSR.

2) The “CIA” funded Castro and failed to see the rise of Fidel as in anti-American.

3) Most recently the “CIA” failed to forsee Pakistan’s nuclear explosions

4) The “CIA” failed to see the realities of Iraq and Afghanistan.

5) The “CIA” has no clue about OBL and was unable to nab him

To think that the “CIA” knows about Pakistani war heads is as silly as knowing that the CIA knew about Iraqi WMDs.

Pakistan has 160 million people who are proud and can defend the country. President Ayub Khan said it best when he said in his book “Friends Not Master”.

The way to help Pakistan is to create a Marshall Plan for Pakistan.

The only way to secure Pakistani nukes is to eliminate bias, contempt and mistrust of the Pakistanis. For the past 60 years, Pakistan is the most mis-treated friend of the USA. It is un-American to treat Pakistan this way.

<a href=”http://rupeenews.com/2007/12/11/the-plan-to-topple-pakistans-military”>Plan to Topple Pakistans Military Fails</a>

On deconstructing the wrong paradigm

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/u-turn-in-our-thinking-deconstructing-the-wrong-paradigm/

Rebutting Cohen

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/30/rebuttal-to-cohenâ??s-four-crises-and-a-peace-process-kargil-internationalized-the-kasmir-issue-and-put-a-death-knell-to-simla/

Another prophecy of doom

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/here-we-go-again-another-indian-prophecy-of-doom-the-first-one-came-in-1947/

Pakistanis want to hear “Thank You” for the US

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/pakistanis-want-to-hear-thank-you-and-are-sick-of-do-more/

Pakistanis to USA: We want “Friends Not Masters”

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/â??friends-not-mastersâ?-a-response-to-deception-hiding-in-plain-sight-pakistan-and-nuclear-proliferation-by-chuck-leddy/

Say Thank You

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/ingrate-friends-should-say-â??thank-youâ?-instead-of-â??do-moreâ?/

Pakistan US Relations should be normal not transactional

http://rupeenews.com/pak-american-relationship-should-not-be-transactionalit-should-be-normalread-bidens-only-comments/

Response to Congressman Hoyer on Pakistan

http://rupeenews.com/2007/11/27/letter-to-congressman-hoyer-about-pakistan/

On inadequate US Aid

http://rupeenews.com/2007/12/09/us-may-boost-accountability-for-aid-to-pakistan-pakistan-should-revise-the-bill/

Where is Osama Bin Laden

http://rupeenews.com/2007/12/09/2008-where-is-the-world-is-osama-bin-laden-someone-knows/

Pakistan has more then 20,000 soldiers protecting her weapons in deep silos in the mountains. More than 30,000 scientists work in the nuclear proram. A small number work in the missle program. The arguments for securing Pakistani assetts is as absurd as looking for WMDs in Iraq.

Pakistan was the only nation dismembered after World War Two. Pakistanis have pledged “Never Again” and no amount of arm twisting will let Pakistanis give up their sovereignty. Pakistani friends of the USA have the following advise for American diplomats: The diplomats and “journalists” should “do more” and take memory improvement pills.  The selective amnesia of these diplomats and columnists conjure up images of ”The Ugly American“ that has forgotten “Charlie’s War” (Congressman Charlie Wilson) and the fact that it was the CIA that created these Frankenstein’s monsters in the “Unholy Wars” (Cooley) and left us to clear the garbage. This attitude perpetuates the belief by a growing number of Pakistanis that they supported the wrong superpower and that Pakistan would have been better off with the USSR borders at Torkham.

Benazir’s banal bilious blathering will ensure her electoral defeat. No Pakistani leader can give up AQ Khan to the predators. AQ is openheimer and Einstein and General Washington rolled into one for Pakistanis.

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I found this article by Ejaz Haider as particularly informative. 

A twice former prime minister needs to know the difference, very clearly, between what is necessary and what is irrelevant and must also appreciate the sensitiveness of certain issues

Ms Benazir Bhutto seems to evince more interest in Dr AQ Khan than one would advise her to. Consider.

In recent months, the first time she chose to speak about Dr Khan was at the Middle East Institute (MEI) in Washington DC in the last week of September. She was quoted as saying that if the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) wanted to have access to Dr Khan, she would not mind the Agency quizzing him in Pakistan.

When this statement appeared in this newspaper, her party spokesman, former Senator Farhatullah Babar, reacted by saying that she had been misquoted. The very next day, again at the MEI in Washington at a press meet where this scribe was also present, Ms Bhutto, in answer to a question about her earlier statement and the rebuttal by her party, chose to rebut her party’s rebuttal. That flip-flop was also carried in this and other newspapers.

Now, one newspaper, reporting her Thursday meeting with Arab ambassadors has quoted her as holding out the promise again that if the IAEA asked for access to Dr Khan, she would not oppose it.

Here’s the question: has the IAEA given any indication to Ms Bhutto that it wants to interrogate Dr Khan? Not possible, simply because Ms Bhutto has no official position right now and if the IAEA is dealing with someone, it has to be the current government. It must be noted that such dealings have nothing to do with the internal question over the legitimacy or otherwise of any government. Until such time that a government is in place, foreign governments and organisations have to deal with it even if such a government is unpopular at home.

Here’s the second question then: if it is highly unlikely that the IAEA has approached Ms Bhutto on this issue, why might she be holding forth on it?

Let’s eschew the element of conspiracy in this scenario and assume that Ms Bhutto is doing so because she has an opinion on it and not because she has been put up to the task of raking up the ghost of Khan by some external actor. What is the basis of her opinion? Does she or her party have the expertise to deal with a question that possibly cannot be – or should not be – be a priority, involved as she is in trying to find political space for herself in a situation fraught with uncertainty?

The answer to this is certain: no.

In fact, going by what Feisal Naqvi wrote in these pages about the absence from the PPP manifesto of any reference to Webcop (Workers and Employers Bilateral Council of Pakistan) (“The PPP manifesto”, Daily Times, December 4) – even though the party boasts its concern for and expertise in labour laws and conditions, it is doubtful that either Ms Bhutto or the PPP could win an IAEA quiz on the full spectrum of nuclear issues or the body of international laws and treaties covering the entire range of nuclear-related activities.

Such being the case, a few observations are in order.

First, some aspects of national security should remain non-partisan. Pakistan’s nuclear programme and anything that may threaten it falls in that category.

Two, the government has so far handled the Khan affair as best as it could, based on a two-pronged strategy: it has raised the comfort level of concerned foreign governments and organisations and at the same time drawn its red lines which no external actor can cross – IAEA too falls in the latter category. This has not been easy but it has been done.

Third, while it makes no sense to condone what Dr Khan and his associates did since their actions threatened Pakistan’s national security, let us not lose sight of the fact that Khan did not break any law while doing what he did. This is why even the IAEA could not come up with a legal case against him. Let me explain: Pakistan is not a party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty. That treaty’s force was based on three things – its legality, the normative standard it sought to establish and the coercion it could bring to bear on recalcitrant states on the basis both of the legal and the normative.

Pakistan, in developing its nuclear potential, broke no legal principle. However, it was coerced on the basis of the normative (a case very different from Iran, for instance).

Ditto for Khan. His actions, internationally, can be condemned on the basis of the normative alone. If he is legally answerable to some entity, it is the Pakistani state. And on that score he has been tried and the file on him closed.

Fourth, while Pakistan has taken a high profile position and measures in the Khan case, other governments, whose nationals were involved in the network, have singly failed for the most part to do so.

Finally, a word of advice: a twice former prime minister needs to know the difference, very clearly, between what is necessary and what is irrelevant and must also appreciate the sensitiveness of certain issues. The PPP, as a party, needs to develop some degree of expertise on both the nuclear issue as well as, if Feisal Naqvi is right, on labour laws.

Ejaz Haider is Consulting Editor of The Friday Times and Op-Ed Editor of Daily Times. He has written extensively on nuclear issues over the years. He can be reached at sapper@dailytimes.com.pk

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Frederick Kagan and others at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) make a career of making enemies out of lifelong friends. Invading a MNNA (Major Non Nato Ally) is the height of stupidity. This is a tsunami.

Kagan’s outbursts may be a direct result of the increasing frustration at the failures in Iraq and the route of NATO forces in Afghanistan which spell the imminent fall of Kabul. The combined might of RAW-and Khad is trying to portray “instability” in Pakistan as an excuse to invade another Muslim country and consecrate the Crusade that the fanatics talk about.

This self-full-filling prophecy has grave consequences for South Asia and the Middle East. Incursions may ignite a fire that may not be containable. Do we want to deal with cardboard caricatures, or do we deal with reality?

One forgets that this is the fourth largest country in the world, nuclear armed and in certain regions of the country the entire population is armed. Does sanity suggest that we antagonize 160 million people? For what and for whom? For getting OBL? One of the worst case scenarios is if Americans are taken hostages and then attempts are made to rescue them. This would be embarrassing for the USA and Pakistan. The risk vs. reward may not be worth it.

Then there is always the possibility of a catastrophe where many Pakistani civilians die as a result of a strike. An accident could occur. If the Pakistanis are not aware of a strike missiles could be launched which could start a regional war. Pakistan and India are nuclear armed. In such a case, all bets are off, and the result would be horrible for the planet.

Pakistan has a 10 division well trained and well equipped army, one of the most professional armies in the world. Most of the officers were trained in the UK, USA, and Australia etc. The army has a centralized control with intense loyalty to the officer corps. More than 500,00 soldiers are in reserve, and like Israel all Pakistani high-schoolers (11th and 12th grades) are trained in basic two year military training called NCC (National Cadet Corp).The army is armed to the teeth, with local arms production M-16, Kalashnikovs, heavy artillery and now airplanes (knockoff of F-16s called JF-17 Thunder). They also have one of the best missile programs in the world, better than that of India.

“The Regime” consists of the army support, an elected National Assembly and Senate with representation of all the political parties including a heavy and intense presence of the MMA, PML and PPP opposition.

Now to eliminate all this would require a full scale invasion. 400,000 American soldiers and mercenaries (contractors) could not do it in Iraq, which has one fifth of the population and was sanctioned for ten years.

Now let us talk about invading Pakistan. Whose army is going to do it? One will need at least two million soldiers to occupy the country partially, and no one in 5000 years has been able to hold it.

Before the country is attacked many unnamed capitals and cities may go up in smoke, the Gulf of Hormuz would be blocked (ending supply of oil to the world), the Suez Canal would be choked, and many oilfields would be radio active for the next ten thousand years. This would mean the end of life as we know it. MAD (mutually assured destruction is the wave of the future).Any takers?

Pakistan may also decide to re-realign itself with Russia and China and leave the USA high and dry. Peace is the only way. Let us build bridges of harmony and rethink the strategy of war and “taking out nukes”.

Loose Talk from the likes of Kagan reverberates into a tsunami in Islamabad and may take out all moderate forces in Pakistan.

Western estimates put Pakistan as having 50 nuclear bombs. Independent analysts put the number higher than 250 and they are buried deep in the mountains and deserts of Pakistan. After testing a “near stealth” nuclear capable cruise missle with a range of more than 400 miles the Pakistan Army on December 11th 2007 issued a very hard warning, and a threat of retaliation to those who think that they will be able to seize the Nuclear weapons of Pakistan. The fire that burns from Gaza to the Indus and beyond may engluf many.

If you liked this article you may also enjoy this one:

http://rupeenews.com/2007/12/08/insight-here%e2%80%99s-a-cue-on-aq-%e2%80%94ejaz-haider/

Incursions may ignite a fire that may not be containable.

Do we want to deal with cardboard caricatures, or do we deal with reality?

One forgets that this is the fourth largest country in the world, nuclear armed and in certain regions of the country the entire population is armed. Does sanity suggest that we antagonize 160 million people? For what and for whom? For getting OBL? One of the worst case scenarios is if Americans are taken hostages and then attempts are made to rescue them. This would be embarrassing for the USA and Pakistan.

The risk vs. reward may not be worth it.

Then there is always the possibility of a catastrophe where many Pakistani civilians die as a result of a strike. An accident could occur. If the Pakistanis are not aware of a strike missiles could be launched which could start a regional war. Pakistan and India are nuclear armed. In such a case, all bets are off, and the result would be horrible for the planet.

Pakistan has a 10 division well trained and well equipped army, one of the most professional armies in the world. Most of the officers were trained in the UK, USA, and Australia etc. The army has a centralized control with intense loyalty to the officer corps. More than 500,00 soldiers are in reserve, and like Israel all Pakistani high-schoolers (11th and 12th grades) are trained in basic two year military training called NCC (National Cadet Corp).The army is armed to the teeth, with local arms production M-16, Kalashnikovs, heavy artillery and now airplanes (knockoff of F-16s called JF-17 Thunder). They also have one of the best missile programs in the world, better than that of India.

“The Regime” consists of the army support, an elected National Assembly and Senate with representation of all the political parties including a heavy and intense presence of the MMA, PML and PPP opposition.

Now to eliminate all this would require a full scale invasion. 400,000 American soldiers and mercenaries (contractors) could not do it in Iraq, which has one fifth of the population and was sanctioned for ten years.

Now let us talk about invading Pakistan. Whose army is going to do it? One will need at least two million soldiers to occupy the country partially, and no one in 5000 years has been able to hold it.

Before the country is attacked many unnamed capitals and cities may go up in smoke, the Gulf of Hormuz would be blocked (ending supply of oil to the world), the Suez Canal would be choked, and many oilfields would be radio active for the next ten thousand years. This would mean the end of life as we know it. MAD (mutually assured destruction is the wave of the future).Any takers?

Pakistan may also decide to re-realign itself with Russia and China and leave the USA high and dry.Western estimates put Pakistan as having 50 nuclear bombs. Independent analysts put the number higher than 250 and they are buried deep in the mountains and deserts of Pakistan. After testing a “near stealth” nuclear capable cruise missle with a range of more than 400 miles the Pakistan Army on December 11th 2007 issued a very hard warning, and a threat of retaliation to those who think that they will be able to seize the Nuclear weapons of Pakistan.

Peace is the only way. Let us build bridges of harmony and rethink the strategy of war and “taking out nukes”

If you liked this article you may also enjoy this one:

http://rupeenews.com/2007/12/08/insight-here%e2%80%99s-a-cue-on-aq-%e2%80%94ejaz-haider/