Is this a warning shot over the bow to Mr. Zardari? Is the US ready to bal hardball with the PPPP? US Drone shot down in FATA: What’s next?

A tsunami has hit the political establishment of the Pakistan Peoples Party Parliamentarians. There is not escape for them. This is treason and the people will hold them responsible for allowing drones to take off from Pakistani territory while they publicly condemned the attacks.

This situation is untenable. How long can the “wink wink nod nod” farce of Drones go on? This can not continue.

It all being traced back to a gaffe by by California’s powerful Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee. It was instantly denied by her office and then denied by the US State Department as well as the Pakistani establishment. However the damage had been done. The government of President Asif Ali Zardari already reeling from economic woes and a capricious issues in Swat is now embroiled in the fight for its own very survival.

The Shamsi airbase in 2006 with three drones apparently visible

The news and the denial by Senator Feinstein about the drone attacks emanating from US bases in Pakistan shows the extent of the US tentacles that have growing within the highest corridors of power. Many in Pakistan hoped that the removal of General Musharraf from the presidency would eliminate the farce and the duplicity that has gone on in Washington and Islamabad.

You can fool some of the people all the time, all the people some of the time, but not all the people all the time.

The CIA been flying “Predators or UAVs” in Pakistan since 2002. There have been 30 strikes since August with 11 top leaders of Al Qaeda taken out, according to intelligence reports.

Senior officials also confirm that Pakistan has been aiding the U.S. in its Predator unmanned aerial vehicle strikes in Pakistan’s tribal areas, despite its leaders very public protests that they see the strikes as a breach of sovereignty.

Both President Asif Ali Zardari and General Ashraf Kayani, the head of Pakistan’s army, have turned a blind eye to the strikes. According to the officials, these two leaders have launched no protests behind the scenes to U.S. officials

Pakistanis are seething at the denials as well as the double-dealing of the PPPP. The popularity numbers of Mr. Asif Zardari are already very low and this incident will further help the opposition. What about the other air bases? What will the electorate say when they find out that the US functions from several air bases in Pakistan.

The US was secretly flying unmanned drones from the Shamsi airbase in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Baluchistan as early as 2006, according to an image of the base from Google Earth.

The image — that is no longer on the site but which was obtained by The News, Pakistan’s English language daily newspaper — shows what appear to be three Predator drones outside a hangar at the end of the runway. The Times also obtained a copy of the image, whose co-ordinates confirm that it is the Shamsi airfield, also known as Bandari, about 200 miles southwest of the Pakistani city of Quetta.

An investigation by The Times yesterday revealed that the CIA was secretly using Shamsi to launch the Predator drones that observe and attack al-Qaeda and Taleban militants around Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan.

US special forces used the airbase during the invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, but the Pakistani Government said in 2006 that the Americans had left. Both sides have since denied repeatedly that Washington has used, or is using, Pakistani bases to launch drones. Pakistan has also demanded that the US cease drone attacks on its tribal area, which have increased over the last year, allegedly killing several “high-value” targets as well as many civilians.

The Google Earth image now suggests that the US began launching Predators from Shamsi — built by Arab sheiks for falconry trips — at least three years ago.

The advantage of Shamsi is that it provides a discreet launchpad within minutes of Quetta — a known Taleban staging post — as well as Taleban infiltration routes into Afghanistan and potential militant targets farther afield.

Google Earth’s current image of Shamsi — about 100 miles south of the Afghan border and 100 miles east of the Iranian one — undoubtedly shows the same airstrip as the image from 2006.

There are no visible drones, but it does show that several new buildings and other structures have been erected since 2006, including what appears to be a hangar large enough to fit three drones. Perimeter defences — apparently made from the same blast-proof barriers used at US and Nato bases in Afghanistan — have also been set up around the hangar.

A compound on the other side of the runway appears to have sufficient housing for several dozen people, as well as neatly tended lawns. Three military aviation experts shown the image said that the aircraft appeared to be MQ1 Predator unmanned aerial vehicles — the model used by the CIA to observe and strike militants on the Afghan border.

The MQ1 Predator carries two laser-guided Hellfire missiles, and can fly for up to 454 miles, at speed of up to 135mph, and at altitudes of up to 25,000ft, according to the US Air Force website www.af.mil

The News reported that the drones were Global Hawks — which are generally used only for reconnaissance, flying for up to 36 hours, at more than 400mph and an altitude of up to 60,000ft. Damian Kemp, an aviation editor with Jane’s Defence Weekly, said that the three drones in the image appeared to have wingspans of 48-50ft.

“The wingspan of an MQ1 Predator A model is 55ft. On this basis it is possible that these are Predator-As,” he said. “They are certainly not RQ-4A Global Hawks (which have a wingspan of 116ft 2in).”

Pakistan’s only drones are Italian Galileo Falcos, which were delivered in 2007, according to a report in last month’s Jane’s World Air Forces.

A military spokesman at the US Embassy in Islamabad declined to comment on the images — or the revelations in The Times yesterday. Times Online

 

The question remains. Why did Senator Diane Feinstein a reputable, sober and politicians “leak” the news that that the drones were taking off from Pakistan Airspace. This could be a pressure tactic to scare the Zardari Government and perhaps a warning shot over overtures to the TTP in Swat.

The capital is rife with rumors confirmed by former Supreme Court Chief Justice Bhagandas that change is in the air. There is a distinct possibility that the PPPP government may not be able to absorb the devastating blow of the drones. The blow will be fatal if the drone attacks continue.

Of course the militants in FATA will not target Shamsi Airforce base and try to shoot down the drones before and after the takeoff. 

LAHORE, PAKISTAN – The confirmation Wednesday that Pakistan allowed the CIA to build a secret airbase in southern Pakistan to launch drone attacks inside Pakistani territory has lifted the lid on what had become an open secret in official circles.

It is likely to infuriate opposition groups, as well as embarrass the Pakistani government. For months, it’s been on the defensive over the continued airstrikes, as the Monitor reported in November. Islamabad has repeatedly pleaded with the US to stop the politically sensitive drone attacks, which have killed more than 150 people since August. As recently as last week, Pakistani government officials let it be known that an end to Predator drone operations topped the wish list that they handed to US special envoy Richard Holbrooke during his visit here last week. Pakistani foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi denied two days ago that drones were being launched from Pakistani territory.

According to the Times of London, the Shamsi airbase is located in a remote region in Pakistan’s southwestern province of Baluchistan, “within reach of militants in Baluchistan, southern Afghanistan and in Pakistan’s northern tribal areas.”

The News, a Pakistani daily, notes that the base can be viewed on Google Earth.

The issue of bases in Pakistan was raised in an “apparent gaffe” by Sen. Diane Feinstein, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee, in Washington last week. It was the first time a US official had publicly commented on where the Predator aircraft take off. Oops! Pakistan condemns US’s drone attacks (but also hosts them). By Issam Ahmed | Correspondent 02.18.09

The PPP of course is in a tizzy. It has been caught with its pants down. It cannot blame all of this on President Musharraf now. The opposition will make political hay out of this to no end.

Major-General Athar Abbas, Pakistan’s chief military spokesman, was not immediately available for comment. He admitted on Tuesday that US forces were using Shamsi, but only for logistics.

He also said that the Americans were using another air base in the city of Jacobabad for logistics and military operations. Pakistan gave the US permission to use Shamsi, Jacobabad and two other bases — Pasni and Dalbadin — for the invasion of Afghanistan in October 2001.

The image of the US drones at Shamsi highlights the extraordinary power — and potential security risks — of Google Earth.

Several governments have asked it to remove or blur images of sensitive locations such as military bases, nuclear reactors and government buildings. Some have also accused the company of helping terrorists, as in 2007, when its images of British military bases were found in the homes of Iraqi insurgents.

Last year India said that the militants who attacked Mumbai in November had used Google Earth to familiarise themselves with their targets. Google Street View, which offers ground-level, 360-degree views, also ran into controversy last year when the Pentagon asked it to remove some online images of military bases in America.

Solutions to “Obam’as Vietnam”
Kabul: The Final Spring Offensive? End of NATO?
Afghanistan: The writing is on the wall. Can Obama read it? UK Brig. Smith: “We’re not going to win this [Afghan] war”
Failure and Defeat in Afghanistan: Inevitable Frustration & misdirected Payback for ally Pakistan
US Charge of the Light Brigade into Pakistan is a US failure and has to stop
Pakistan’s do more list for the USA
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan run by Taliban Huge Migraine for India
Facing the Khyber poltergeist & Ganges hobgoblin

NATO war: UK 1880 defeats in Afghanistan

Cambodiazation of the Afghan war
Rescueing the Pashtuns of Afghania from Afghanistan
Unite! Erase the Durand Line The only solution is the inevitable confederation between Pakistan and Afghanistan

In 2001 the US was considered the liberator and was immensely popular in Afghanistan and even though there was a tiff with Islamabad on the Nuclear bomb, America was still popular in Pakistan. The elites in both countries were definitely pro-American–many educated and trained in the USA. There was tremendous goodwill  left over from the First Afghan war. President Bush had an opportunity to use the weakened USSR to build bridges and spread American influence from Karachi to Kabul and then spread it to Baku, Samarkhand, Bokhara and right up to the Chinese border and beyond.

How can you convert a population full of American fans into US policy haters? It is a classic test case of lessons learned in a tragedy of errors. What did the Neocons do and how did they do it? Instead of using a covert force of 5000 Navy seal to nab the evil guys, the Bush Neocons waged a global war on terror. They used daisy cutters on Afghanistan, nuclear tipped bombs in Iraq and drones in Pakistan. Abu Graib, Gitmo, renditions and torture have tarnished America and its image as the beacon of freedom. The fire is raging from the Nile to the Euphrates; From the Indus to the Amu Darya. All goodwill is gone.

Vietnam, half a world away, seemed alien to many Americans and to Westerners generally. Afghanistan might as well be the moon. At least Vietnam had been a French colony, albeit a troubled one. Afghanistan resisted colonization, dispatching 19th-century British and 20th-century Russian soldiers with equal efficiency. “Afghanistan is not a nation, it is a collection of tribes,” according to a Saudi diplomat who did not wish to publicly disparage a Muslim neighbor. In Vietnam, the Ngo Dinh Diem government was seen as illegitimate because Diem was a Roman Catholic in a mostly Buddhist country and because it was propped up by the United States. In Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai’s government was essentially created by the United States after local warlords, backed by American airpower, ousted the Taliban in 2001. (Karzai was elected in his own right in 2004, but at a time when he was clearly favored by America and faced no serious rivals.)

As in Diem’s Vietnam, government corruption is epic; even Karzai says so. “The banks of the world are full of the money of our statesmen,” he said last November. His former finance minister, Ashraf Ghani, rates his old government as “one of the five most corrupt in the world” and warns that Afghanistan is becoming a “failed, narco-mafia state.” In a country where seven out of 10 citizens live on about a dollar a day, the average family each year must pay about $100 in baksheesh, or bribes (in Vietnam, this was known as “tea” or “coffee” money). Foreign aid is, after narcotics, the readiest source of income in Afghanistan. But it has been widely estimated that because of stealing and mismanagement in Kabul, the capital, less than half of the money actually finds its way into projects, and only a quarter of that makes it to the countryside, where 70 percent of the people live. Newsweek, With Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai

Today as a result of thee failed policies, 80% of Afghanistan is in the hands of wealthy drug-lords who have money and arms. Pakistan is seething with anger at the loss of civilian casualties in FATA and Swat. The writing on the wall for US policy makers is clear. How do they deal with it? They can continue the flawed policy of covert sabotage, and overt war or they can build a new Central Asia.

• The war in Afghanistan is unwinnable (British and American Generals). UK Brig. Smith: “We’re not going to win this [Afghan] war”
• The economic price of the war is untenable for the UK and the US. Afghanistan: The writing is on the wall. Can Obama read it?
• The mini-surge of 30,000 troops is not materializing and has been reduced to three brigades only.Reality check on War in Afghanistan 
• The traditional supply route via Pakistan’s tribal areas and the mountainous Khyber Pass has become increasingly vulnerable to Taliban attack.Uzbekistan pressured the IMU is scared of Taliban reprisals on supplies to Kabul
• US base at Minas is being “sold” to the Russians cutting off a possible route to Kabul. Russia asserts itself in Central Asia
• 80% of Afghan territory is under insurgent control. US attacks on Pakistan have fueled the Afghan insurgency
• The price of transferring “non-military” hardware through Russia is to give up Ukraine and Georgia back to Russia is too big a price to pay. Moscow’s pound of flesh for allowing base & supplies to Afghanistan
• Failure and Defeat in Afghanistan: Inevitable Frustration & misdirected Payback for ally Pakistan
• Hot War: A response to Cold Start. American attempts to use India to pressure Pakistan backfired as Pakistan moved its forces to the Eastern front. Pakistani response to India’s Cold Start Strategy
• According to Bruce Reidel Mullah Omar promised safe passage to the Americans and was interested in joining the government if the foreign troops would leave.Kabul: The Final Spring Offensive? End of NATO?
• Imran Khan predicts that the USA will leave Afghanistan in one year. Other analysts and “Taliban” leaders are willing to allow them 2 years. The Grand Bargain? Pakistan key to Afghan Great Game
•  Solutions to “Obam’as Vietnam”

The 20th anniversary of the defeat of the USSR in Afghanistan is a poignant reminder to occupation armies that the Hindu Kush mountains are the “graveyard of empires“. The Khyber for 5000 years has witnessed the hordes of invaders come down to the Indus–but the Khyber Pass is a one way street. No invader has been able to go up the Khyber and occupy Pakhtun lands. The Mongols, Alexander, the British, the Russians all discovered it the hard way.NATO war: UK 1880 defeats in Afghanistan.The rising fire of Anti-Americanism has engulfed the land from the Indus to the Amu Darya.

OTTAWA, Feb 17 (Reuters) – The situation in Afghanistan seems to be getting worse and a solution will require more than just military force, U.S. President Barack Obama said on Tuesday. “There are a lot of concerns about a conflict that has lasted quite a long time now and actually appears to be deteriorating at this point,” he told CBC television in an interview ahead of his visit to Canada on Thursday. Obama voiced appreciation for Canada’s military engagement in Afghanistan and gave no hint that he would ask Prime Minister Stephen Harper to extend the combat mission there beyond the mid-2011 date agreed by Parliament. “Very soon we will be releasing some initial plans in terms of how we are going to approach the military side of the equation in Afghanistan,” he said. “But I’m absolutely convinced that you cannot solve the problem of Afghanistan, the Taliban, the spread of extremism in that region, solely through military means,” he added. “We’re going to have use diplomacy, we’re going to have to use development, and my hope is that in conversations that I have with Prime Minister Harper that he and I end up seeing the importance of a comprehensive strategy.” (Reporting by Randall Palmer; Editing by Frank McGurty). Reuters. Obama sees Afghan situation deteriorating. Tue Feb 17, 2009 1:53pm EST

Several tectonic shifts have happened in the land of the Pamirs in the past few weeks. The reverberations from these earthquakes will be felt all the way to Washington and beyond. Facing the Khyber poltergeist & Ganges hobgoblin. The election campaign in Afghanistan has already started. Installing an Anti-Pakistan government in Kabul. Unable to venture beyond the confinement of his own capital, the mercurial Mr. Karzai was seen campaigning in Moscow and Delhi. The last days of the last “emperor”. The “Mayor of Kabul” is being replaced.  Mr. Hobrooke rebuffed Mr. Karzai by not meeting him for three days. The snub was very evident by the itinerary of the American envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan (“K” for Kashmir is silent in his portfolio). Mr. Holbrooke like President-Elect Biden (a few weeks ago) mentioned the inefficiency of the government in front of the frustrated host. The Grand Bargains for Kabul

While neighboring Iran is predominantly Shiite, and has traditionally backed the Sunni Taliban’s foes in the Northern Alliance, Tehran may also be the source of some of the more sophisticated IEDs turning up on the battlefield in Afghanistan. Certainly Iran has some interest in seeing the American forces on its border bleed a little. At times, though, the United States can seem like its own worst enemy in Afghanistan. Lacking enough troops, forced to cover vast areas, U.S. forces depend far too heavily on strikes by A-10s, F-15s, even B-1 bombers. In 2004, the U.S. Air Force flew 86 strike sorties against targets in Afghanistan. By 2007, the number was up to 2,926—and that doesn’t count rocket or cannon fire from helicopters

The American people have had enough of these “perpetual mimetic wars”. They want to throw the Orwellian “1984″ into the dustbin of history. How do Hillary Clinton, Bruce Reidel and Joseph Biden use Big brother’s “War is peace and Peace is War” philosophy to camouflage the campaign rhetoric? The challenge for the architects of the “new” Afghan policy is to place all blame on Karzai’s incompetence, NATA recalcitrance, and Pakistan duplicity:– then cloak failure as success, hide the inevitable defeat, declare victory now and withdraw from Kabul while they can– with some sense of respectability. Here is the rhetoric that we can expect. Newsweek, With Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai

The Grand Bargain? Pakistan key to Afghan Great Game. The secular Pakistani Awami National Party (ANP) which has been missing in action for months, finally stood up to be counted and has arranged a peace deal between the Swati militants and the Pakistani Army. Much to the chagrin of the West, there is celebration in Swat and people across the spectrum wants the fighting to stop.

 
  ISLAMABAD, Feb. 17 (Xinhua) — Britain said Tuesday that it had concerns over an agreement for the introduction of Islamic courts in parts of Pakistan’s   northwest. “We need to be confident that they will end violence, not create space for further violence,” said British High Commission spokesperson Jennifer Wilkes in a statement.     “They need to be clear, robust and monitored long-term, and include enforceable measures on cross-border movement to tackle cross-border militancy,” he said.

Wilkes said that Britain also recognized the Pakistani government’s efforts to restore peace and security to Swat.     “Swat’s problems require a comprehensive approach, bringing together security measures, development and governance. Any solution should also reflect the will of the people of Swat,” he said. Pakistan’s provincial government in the northwest and leader of a pro-Taliban banned Islamic group signed a deal Monday, abolishing un-Islamic laws and setting up Islamic courts in Malak and Division in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP).     The courts will also be set up in the Swat valley where Pakistani Taliban have been fighting against the security forces over the past two years.

 Meanwhile Sufi Muhammad, chief of the banned Tehrik Shariat-e-Nifaza Muhammadi (TSNM), Tuesday led thousands of his followers to Swat to convince the local Taliban to lay down arms and accept the agreement on Islamic laws.     Muhammad, father-in-law of Maulana Fazalullah, the chief of Swat Taliban, will meet Fazaullah Wednesday, according to local press reports. Britain expresses concerns on Pakistan’s Islamic law agreement, www.chinaview.cn 2009-02-17 23:00:49

The “peace deal” will be sabotaged in due course by “the powers to be” who do not want to see stability in Pakistan. That is inevitable, however it buys the Pakistani government some time to sort our the players and put together a long term strategy on coping with the problems in the restive Malakand Division. Pakistanis see a difference between the insurgents fighting the Americans in Afghanistan and the insurgents within Pakistan. There is no stomach in Pakistan to bomb and kill their own fellow citizens. Much to the chagrin of the West, Pakistan has signed a peace deal with the Swat militants.Obama’s advisor predicts focus on talks and reconciliation

Islamabad: Maulana Sufi Mohammad, leader of the Tahreek-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat Mohammadi (TNSM) and spiritual leader of Swat Taliban, has reached Swat valley to persuade his son-in-law and militant leader Maulana Fazlullah to accept the recently signed peace deal with the government.

Sufi Mohammad was warmly welcomed in Swat as he reached there from Timar Garah on Tuesday along with a convoy of supporters which consisted of hundreds of vehicles. Banners and posters by locals on roads and in bazaars welcomed Sufi’s convoy and his peace initiative.

Sufi Mohammad will persuade Fazlullah not to challenge the government’s writ, lay down arms and restore peace to the restive Swat valley where Taliban fighters have pitched themselves against the military troops for the last several months resulting in dozens of civilian casualities and a loss of billions of rupees to property and business. Leader arrives in Swat valley with message of peace. By Fasihur Rehman Khan, Correspondent
Published: February 17, 2009, 23:56

Tough lessons in geography. The US has been thrown out of Kyrgyzstan. Russia promised to pay double the rent of the base and also gave Kyrgyzstan double its national budget–cool cash worth $2 Billion. This creates a huge problem for America. Her supply lines are already been choked at the Kyber and harassed along the way. Russia is asking for its pound of flesh for allowing the supplies through Russian territory. Moscow is asking for an end to NATO expansion which may be a hard bargain for NATO and the US to accept. Kyrgyzstan in a well calculated move throws out the US bases. Anti-Occupation forces choke US Afghan war

Feb. 3 (Bloomberg) — Kyrgyzstan will close an air base used by the U.S. as a staging point for operations in Afghanistan, potentially undermining President Barack Obama’s planned troop increase aimed at defeating the Taliban. For three years, the Kyrgyz government tried to renegotiate the amount paid by the U.S. to use the base, “but we encountered no understanding from the U.S. side,” Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev told reporters in Moscow today. The decision was made “in the last few days,” he said.

The U.S. Defense department said the base issue is still being discussed with Kyrgyzstan. Before Bakiyev’s announcement, President Dmitry Medvedev said Russia will lend Kyrgyzstan $2 billion and provide another $150 million in economic aid. The two countries reached an agreement on settling Kyrgyzstan’s debt to Russia, part of which will be written off and the rest repaid with assets. Obama plans to boost U.S. forces in Afghanistan under a strategy similar to the troop “surge” ordered by former President George W. Bush in Iraq. There are currently about 36,000 U.S. troops in Afghanistan. Other NATO members have contributed another 32,000 troops to the Afghan mission, according to the alliance.

Base at Manas

The base at Manas Airport near the Kyrgyz capital Bishkek was established in 2001 and serves U.S. and allied troops in Afghanistan. It gained additional strategic importance when Uzbekistan closed a similar base on its territory in 2005. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates’s spokesman, Geoff Morrell, said today he believed the terms for continued use of Manas were still under negotiation.

“I’ve seen President Bakiyev’s comments, but we have received no formal notification from him or any other Kyrgyz official to close the base,” Morrell said in an interview. “We’ve been in discussions with Kyrgyz authorities for some time now, and we anticipate continuing those discussions to the point where we are able to resolve them to our mutual satisfaction.” Earlier, in a Pentagon briefing, Morrell told reporters that Manas is “a hugely important air base for us” because it provides “a launching-off point to provide supplies to our forces in Afghanistan.” Later, in the interview, he said it wasn’t the only means.

‘Multiple Supply Lines’

“We have multiple supply lines into Afghanistan, both by air and ground,” Morrell said. “While we would much prefer to continue operations in Manas and will work to make sure that’s the case, there are a number of routes by which we can continue to supply our troops and sustain our operations.” The announcement about Manas came on the same day that insurgents attacked and damaged a bridge on the U.S.’s main land supply route into Afghanistan along that country’s border with Pakistan. Insurgents have stepped up attacks on the route in recent months. As a result, Morrell said, the U.S. has sought to open alternatives into Afghanistan from the north. Medvedev said Russia and Kyrgyzstan would combine forces to help provide stability in Central Asia. He also reiterated Russia’s willingness to cooperate with the U.S. to bring order to Afghanistan. 

“Our countries will also help operations in the region that are being conducted against terrorism, and we’re prepared for coordinated actions with coalition countries,” he said. Medvedev visited Uzbekistan, which borders Afghanistan, last month on the heels of a tour through the region by Army General David Petraeus, commander of all U.S. forces in the Middle East and Central Asia. Petraeus said on Jan. 20 that the U.S. had secured “additional logistical routes into Afghanistan” through Central Asia as its main supply route through Pakistan becomes increasingly vulnerable to attack by the Taliban. Petraeus visited Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan, skipping Uzbekistan, which in 2005 told U.S. forces to leave a base used as a transit point for supplies, troops and aircraft coming in and out of Afghanistan. Kyrgyzstan to Close U.S. Air Base Used for Afghan War By Lyubov Pronina . To contact the reporter on this story: Lyubov Pronina in Moscow at lpronina@bloomberg.net 

US Charge of the Light Brigade into Pakistan is a US failure and has to stop. The mini-surge has begun. Pat Buchananan reports that the 30,000 promised troops may not materialize and the mini-surge may only be confined to the regiments. Khyber Pass choked for NATO supplies

US commanders have been contemplating sending up to 30,000 more soldiers to bolster the 33,000 already here, but the new administration is expected to initially approve only a portion of that amount. White House press secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday the president would decide soon.

The new unit — the 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 10th Mountain Division — moved into Logar and Wardak provinces last month, and the soldiers from Fort Drum, NY, are now stationed in combat outposts throughout the provinces. Several roadside bombs also have exploded next to the unit’s MRAPs — mine-resistance patrol vehicles — but caused no casualties, he said.Dawn

The brilliant intellectual and one of the most quoted men on the planet, Noam Chomsky and former Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf say that there will be no change in American policy in South and West Asia. The results on the ground certainly do not show any change, however the realities on the ground may force the administration to come out of the thinktank cocoons and not simply react to conditions on the ground. President Barack Obama had a small window of opportunity where he could have made a difference. His silence on Gaza and continuation of drone bombings in Pakistan is fast depleting his capital. All this spells disaster for Obama.

WASHINGTON: President Barack Obama has approved a modest increase in U.S. forces for the flagging war in Afghanistan, administration, defense and congressional officials said Tuesday. The Obama administration was announcing Tuesday that it will send one additional Army brigade and an unknown number of Marines to Afghanistan during the coming six months. Officials speaking on condition of anonymity said the total is about 17,000 troops. About 8,000 U.S. Marines are expected to go in first, followed by about 9,000 Army troops.The new units are a Marine Expeditionary Brigade from North Carolina and an Army Stryker brigade from Fort Lewis in Washington state. International Herald Tribune. Associated Press writers Jennifer Loven, Lolita C. Baldor, Pamela Hess, Anne Flaherty and Lara Jakes contributed to this report.

The lack of troops shows a huge supply and demand problem in the US army and NATO forces. There are no additional troops to spare. So while the thinktanks dictate a continuation of the failed policies, the conditions on the ground dictate a lack of will at implementing the policies. This is a classic setup for failure. The USSR had 250,000troops plus another 150,000 irregulars in Afghanistan. 400,000 troops and a 150,000 strong Afghan Army was unable to keep them from being routed. The NATO troops do not venture out of their comfort zones. It is only the US army that pursues the insurgents. 60,000 soldiers in Afghanistan will be unable to quell the insurgency and reverse the march to Kabul.

There are external factors to the malaise. Another challenge would to assuage India, keep Russia at bay and try to maintain some links with the Central Asian Republics who have not fully returned to the Russian fold.. Moscow’s pound of flesh for allowing base & supplies to Afghanistan. The American War Strategy has been impacted by the changes in Kyrgyzstan. Cambodiazation of the Afghan war has not helped the US war effort.“American Taliban in Kabul?

Russia has been pressuring Kyrgyzstan amid unease at the US’s growing footprint in central Asia. US attempts to supply coalition troops fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan were in danger of suffering a major setback today after Kyrgyzstan signalled it was considering shutting down a key US military base. The central Asian republic is contemplating closing down the US military facility near its capital Bishkek. The Manas airbase – home to 1,000 US army personnel since 2001 – is a key staging post for coalition forces fighting in nearby Afghanistan. Both US and Nato commanders have expressed dismay at the possible closure. It comes at a time when Nato is desperately trying to expand its supply routes to Afghanistan via the northern countries of central Asia following a series of devastating attacks on truck convoys from Pakistan.

Russia has been pressuring Kyrgyzstan to evict the Americans, amid unease in Russia’s military at the US’s growing footprint in central Asia, an area Moscow regards as its backyard. The Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiyev was today in Moscow holding talks with Russia’s president Dmitry Medvedev. Tonight, Kanat Tursunkulov, an official from Kyrgyzstan’s foreign ministry, told the Guardian: “Our president has said the [US] base is very helpful for the stability of the region and Afghanistan.” Asked whether that meant the president would now shut it down, he said, “There’s no comment on this.”

But Kommersant newspaper reported that Bakiyev is seeking a $450m (£312.5m) loan from Russia for his impoverished ex-Soviet republic, and the write-off of $180m in debts. In return, Russia “counts on a favourable decision on the destiny of the US Manas airbase on Kyrgyz territory”, the newspaper reported – possibly even tomorrow. Today, however, analysts said that Russia would not want the issue to jeopardise its relationship with the Obama White House. Rather, Moscow wanted to use the Kyrgyzstan base as a bargaining chip in a much wider strategic dialogue – over the future of the US missile defence shield in Europe, for example, and Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine.

“Russia is inviting the west for a dialogue. At the same time it is showing off some of its trump cards. The Manas base is one of them,” Andrei Grozin, a central Asian analyst at the Institute for the Study of Post-Soviet States in Moscow, said. He added, “In effect Russia and China are saying, ‘We can get rid of this base. That doesn’t mean we want to do it now. We want to cooperate.’ But in return Russia wants concessions [from Washington] on missile defence and no invitation from Nato to Georgia or Ukraine.”

Yesterday Robert Simmons, the special envoy to Nato’s secretary general, visited Kyrgyzstan and urged its government not to shut the base. He described it as a “vital link in our fight against international terrorism”, adding, “The presence of the airbase is a large contribution to Nato operations.” The US military chief in the region, General David Petraeus, visited Kyrgyzstan last month to explore new transport routes to Afghanistan. He also toured Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan. Russia has offered to transport non-military supplies to Afghanistan. But Nato has yet to reach a comprehensive transit deal with Afghanistan’s immediate central Asian neighbours.

Since the 2001 war in Afghanistan, central Asia has been at the centre of a strategic competition between the US and Russia. The rivalry is reminiscent of the 19th-century conflict between imperial Britain and tsarist Russia, played out in the velvet mountains of the Hindu Kush, and famously dubbed the Great Game. In a significant victory, the Bush administration persuaded Uzbekistan’s authoritarian rulers to allow a US military base on its territory. In 2006, however, the Uzbek regime kicked the Americans out following a secret deal with Moscow. China is also a significant player in the region’s complex geo-politics. President Barack Obama has already signalled a shift in foreign policy – with the war in Afghanistan and a new relationship with Iran the two priorities in the new post-Bush era. He plans to build up US troop numbers in Afghanistan, possibly doubling numbers to 60,000 this year. But the traditional supply route via Pakistan’s tribal areas and the mountainous Khyber Pass has become increasingly vulnerable to Taliban attack.

Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, is in deep economic trouble. The small country faces rising unemployment, a growing trade deficit, and is struggling to pay its gas and electricity bills. The normally disunited opposition has got its act together and now threatens President Bakiyev. Closure of US base in Kyrgyzstan could alter Afghanistan strategy. Luke Harding in Moscow , guardian.co.uk, Tuesday 3 February 2009 19.50 GMT

Pakistan & drones. The PPPP controls the Senate, the National Assembly, and has coalition governments in three provinces. The Prime Minister belongs to the PPP and President Zardari essentially has all the powers that General Musharraf used to have. It is amazing the the New York Times calls Mr. Zardari’s government weak. “Shoot the drones”: Shireen Mazari. Even if the Pakistan Peoples Party government is able to last the firestorm over the drone bombings, it will be under tremendous pressure to withdraw the base facilities that hosts the drones. Halting the suicide bombers needs a holistic strategy and an immediate stopping of drones. If it continues the current policy, it will be thrown out of office in 2012 or before. Pakistan’s legitimate interests?. The “government in waiting” is the irascible Nawaz Sharif whose popularity has soared over this issues. How long can the “wink wink nod nod” farce of Drones go on? Imran Khan has also taken advantage of the confusion and his popularity has increased, specially among the Pakhtuns. Nawaz Sharif aligned with Imran Khan and the Jamat e Islami would not bode well for American interests in Pakistan. Pakistan’s “Do More” list for the USA. The Amir e Jamat e Islami recently visited Beijing and both Imran Khan and Mr. Sharif have been very critical of American policy in the region. Imran Khan in a recent interview saw the US withdraw out of Afghanistan in  years time. Sabotaging Obama: CIA provoking Pakistan into shooting the drones

Americans are appropriately skeptical about the chances of success in Afghanistan. A recent NEWSWEEK Poll shows that while 71 percent of the people believe that Obama can turn around the cratering economy, only 48 percent think he can make progress in Afghanistan. Deploying a U.S. force of 60,000 will cost about $70 billion a year. Training and supporting the 130,000 to 200,000 troops required for a proper Afghan Army would take another decade and could cost at least $20 billion. Petraeus has consistently warned that Afghanistan will be “the longest campaign in the long war” against Islamic extremism. But it’s far from clear that Americans have the appetite for such a commitment: after the economy, their top priority is health care (36 percent). Only 10 percent put Afghanistan at the top of their list, even fewer than nominate Iraq. If there is no real improvement on the ground, by the 2010 midterm elections, candidates for office may be decrying “Obama’s war.” Newsweek. With Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai

• Obama to unveil new policy: Marshal Plan & end to bombing raids in Pakistan
• Peek into Obama’s brains: Bruce Reidel on Pakistan
• Growing consensus in the Obama team: Much of Pakistan’s problems originate in Afghanistan
• Obama advisor Weinbaum predicts total Afghan policy review: Sees focus on talks & Reconciliation
• Afghanistan: Gen. Petraeus’ Pakistani advisers: Indians jittery
• Obama adviser Weinbaum gives deep insights into new Afghan policy

Does Obama have the courage to implement the real solutions to Obama’s Vietnam (Afghanistan). Is the US ready to withdraw from Afghanistan. The US has been negotiating with the “Taliban” for several months now and a meeting was held under the auspices of the Saudi monarchs. Mullah Omar promised safe package to the Americans and was interested in joining the government if the foreign troops would leave. Convincing the US Tin ear–of the Pakistani point of view

The idea of becoming subservient to India is abhorrent. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. USA has not met with any appreciable success to divide the Taliban by winning over the moderate elements and making them share power. Efforts will be renewed to win over Mullah Omar who has hinted at sharing power provided a firm time-table of foreign troop withdrawal is announced. Two-year timeframe will be offered as in case of Iraq, which will subsequently be dishonoured. Negotiations for power sharing will be undertaken only when the US-Nato military tilts the balance in its favour to be able to bargain from a position of strength. This implies more bloodshed, not realising that more the provocations by US troops, fiercer will be the response from the militant forces. Its oppressive acts will accelerate rather than de-accelerate violence thereby making foreign troops based in Afghanistan that much vulnerable to attacks. Military power can win a war but cannot defeat terrorism, which grows like wild weeds. Terrorism is a product of injustice; without eradicating root causes which breed terrorism, the disease cannot be cured by applying force. Obama and his team must take into account the consensus that has emerged among the western analysts that dialogue based on sincerity of purpose and genuine efforts to remove root causes is the key to settle Afghan imbroglio. The Statesman. US converting defeat into victory in Afghanistan. The writer is a retired Brig and a defence and political analyst based in Rawalpindi. ah.raja@yahoo.com . Asif Haroon Raja:      Pakistan first: The devastating effects of appeasing India and kowtowing to the USA

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan run by Taliban Huge Migraine for India

So why not just get out? As always, it’s not so simple. If the Americans pull their troops out, the already shaky Afghan Army could collapse. (Once they lost U.S. air support, South Vietnamese troops sometimes refused to take the field and fight.) Afghanistan could well plunge into civil war, just as it did after the Soviets left in 1989. Already, the Pashtuns in the south regard the American-backed Tajiks who dominate Karzai’s administration as the enemy. The winning side would likely be the one backed by Pakistan, which may end up being the Taliban—just as it was in the last civil war.

Some argue this wouldn’t be such a bad outcome, if the Taliban could be bribed or persuaded to not let Al Qaeda set up terrorist training bases on Afghan territory. According to one senior Taliban leader, a former deputy minister in Mullah Mohammed Omar’s government who would only speak anonymously, some Pakistani officials are urging the insurgents to do something like this now—in return for talks with the Americans. On the other hand, Islamabad could be playing with fire. Given the longstanding ties between the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban, a jihadist state on its border is a threat to Pakistan, too. And here, U.S. national-security interests definitely do come into play. Newsweek. With Ron Moreau and Sami Yousafzai

Rescueing the Pashtuns of Afghania from Afghanistan 
Unite! Erase the Durand Line The only solution is the inevitable confederation between Pakistan and Afghanistan

We wrote this story several weeks ago. It is an open secret in Afghanistan and Pakistan. People who work the poppy fields in and around Kabul and other parts of Afghanistan all know that the biggest drug lord in Afghanistan is the Karzai family. Hamid Karzai the president uses his front man to handle the drug business. It is a pretty convenient business.

The monopoly is easy to manage. Whenever they face any competition, the name is given to the US forces who take care of him as a terrorist–no questions asked. There is ample evidence to suggest that the US Army avoids the poppy fields and does not  mow down the plants during its missions.

What is most annoying about this is that the highest levels of the US government are complicit or can be complicit in this trade. They might as well as shut down the DEA and the cops on the streets could be put ot better use than chase small fry drug dealers in major US and European cities.

“Just say no” should be taught to the US army, not just the kids in elementary schools.

The media has known about this. The New York Times has now the permission to print this. the expendable Karzai’s is history. His end is near. The media will now be full of stories painting him as the evil ineffectual president of half the city of Kabul–as if this is news. It is easier to dismiss or kill a demonized person. Karzai has been playing a dangerous game. He has reached the end of the rope—that is around his neck.

October 5, 2008

Reports Link Karzai’s Brother to Afghanistan Heroin Trade

By JAMES RISEN

WASHINGTON — When Afghan security forces found an enormous cache of heroin hidden beneath concrete blocks in a tractor-trailer outside Kandahar in 2004, the local Afghan commander quickly impounded the truck and notified his boss.

Before long, the commander, Habibullah Jan, received a telephone call from Ahmed Wali Karzai, the brother of President Hamid Karzai, asking him to release the vehicle and the drugs, Mr. Jan later told American investigators, according to notes from the debriefing obtained by The New York Times. He said he complied after getting a phone call from an aide to President Karzai directing him to release the truck.

Two years later, American and Afghan counternarcotics forces stopped another truck, this time near Kabul, finding more than 110 pounds of heroin. Soon after the seizure, United States investigators told other American officials that they had discovered links between the drug shipment and a bodyguard believed to be an intermediary for Ahmed Wali Karzai, according to a participant in the briefing.

The assertions about the involvement of the president’s brother in the incidents were never investigated, according to American and Afghan officials, even though allegations that he has benefited from narcotics trafficking have circulated widely in Afghanistan.

Both President Karzai and Ahmed Wali Karzai, now the chief of the Kandahar Provincial Council, the governing body for the region that includes Afghanistan’s second largest city, dismiss the allegations as politically motivated attacks by longtime foes.

“I am not a drug dealer, I never was and I never will be,” the president’s brother said in a recent phone interview. “I am a victim of vicious politics.”

But the assertions about him have deeply worried top American officials in Kabul and in Washington. The United States officials fear that perceptions that the Afghan president might be protecting his brother are damaging his credibility and undermining efforts by the United States to buttress his government, which has been under siege from rivals and a Taliban insurgency fueled by drug money, several senior Bush administration officials said. Their concerns have intensified as American troops have been deployed to the country in growing numbers.

“What appears to be a fairly common Afghan public perception of corruption inside their government is a tremendously corrosive element working against establishing long-term confidence in that government — a very serious matter,” said Lt. Gen. David W. Barno, who was commander of coalition military forces in Afghanistan from 2003 to 2005 and is now retired. “That could be problematic strategically for the United States.”

The White House says it believes that Ahmed Wali Karzai is involved in drug trafficking, and American officials have repeatedly warned President Karzai that his brother is a political liability, two senior Bush administration officials said in interviews last week.

Numerous reports link Ahmed Wali Karzai to the drug trade, according to current and former officials from the White House, the State Department and the United States Embassy in Afghanistan, who would speak only on the condition of anonymity. In meetings with President Karzai, including a 2006 session with the United States ambassador, the Central Intelligence Agency’s station chief and their British counterparts, American officials have talked about the allegations in hopes that the president might move his brother out of the country, said several people who took part in or were briefed on the talks.

“We thought the concern expressed to Karzai might be enough to get him out of there,” one official said. But President Karzai has resisted, demanding clear-cut evidence of wrongdoing, several officials said. “We don’t have the kind of hard, direct evidence that you could take to get a criminal indictment,” a White House official said. “That allows Karzai to say, ‘where’s your proof?’ ”

Neither the Drug Enforcement Administration, which conducts counternarcotics efforts in Afghanistan, nor the fledgling Afghan anti-drug agency has pursued investigations into the accusations against the president’s brother.

Several American investigators said senior officials at the D.E.A. and the office of the Director of National Intelligence complained to them that the White House favored a hands-off approach toward Ahmed Wali Karzai because of the political delicacy of the matter. But White House officials dispute that, instead citing limited D.E.A. resources in Kandahar and southern Afghanistan and the absence of political will in the Afghan government to go after major drug suspects as the reasons for the lack of an inquiry.

“We invested considerable resources into building Afghan capability to conduct such investigations and consistently encouraged Karzai to take on the big fish and address widespread Afghan suspicions about the link between his brother and narcotics,” said Meghan O’Sullivan, who was the coordinator for Afghanistan and Iraq at the National Security Council until last year.

It was not clear whether President Bush had been briefed on the matter.Humayun Hamidzada, press secretary for President Karzai, denied that the president’s brother was involved in drug trafficking or that the president had intervened to help him. “People have made allegations without proof,” Mr. Hamidzada said.

Spokesmen for the Drug Enforcement Administration, the State Department and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment.

An Informant’s Tip

The concerns about Ahmed Wali Karzai have surfaced recently because of the imprisonment of an informant who tipped off American and Afghan investigators to the drug-filled truck outside Kabul in 2006.

The informant, Hajji Aman Kheri, was arrested a year later on charges of plotting to kill an Afghan vice president in 2002. The Afghan Supreme Court recently ordered him freed for lack of evidence, but he has not been released. Nearly 100 political leaders in his home region protested his continued incarceration last month.

Mr. Kheri, in a phone interview from jail in Kabul, said he had been an informant for the Drug Enforcement Administration and United States intelligence agencies, an assertion confirmed by American counternarcotics and intelligence officials. Several of those officials, frustrated that the Bush administration was not pressing for Mr. Kheri’s release, came forward to disclose his role in the drug seizure.

Ever since the American-led invasion of Afghanistan in 2001, critics have charged that the Bush administration has failed to take aggressive action against the Afghan narcotics trade, because of both opposition from the Karzai government and reluctance by the United States military to get bogged down by eradication and interdiction efforts that would antagonize local warlords and Afghan poppy farmers. Now, Afghanistan provides about 95 percent of the world’s supply of heroin.

Just as the Taliban have benefited from money produced by the drug trade, so have many officials in the Karzai government, according to American and Afghan officials. Thomas Schweich, a former senior State Department counternarcotics official, wrote in The New York Times Magazine in July that drug traffickers were buying off hundreds of police chiefs, judges and other officials. “Narco-corruption went to the top of the Afghan government,” he said.

Suspicions of Corruption

Of the suspicions about Ahmed Wali Karzai, Representative Mark Steven Kirk, an Illinois Republican who has focused on the Afghan drug problem in Congress, said, “I would ask people in the Bush administration and the D.E.A. about him, and they would say, ‘We think he’s dirty.’ ”

In the two drug seizures in 2004 and 2006, millions of dollars’ worth of heroin was found. In April 2006, Mr. Jan, by then a member of the Afghan Parliament, met with American investigators at a D.E.A. safe house in Kabul and was asked to describe the events surrounding the 2004 drug discovery, according to notes from the debriefing session. He told the Americans that after impounding the truck, he received calls from Ahmed Wali Karzai and Shaida Mohammad, an aide to President Karzai, according to the notes.

Mr. Jan later became a political opponent of President Karzai, and in a 2007 speech in Parliament he accused Ahmed Wali Karzai of involvement in the drug trade. Mr. Jan was shot to death in July as he drove from a guesthouse to his main residence in Kandahar Province. The Taliban were suspected in the assassination.

Mr. Mohammad, in a recent interview in Washington, dismissed Mr. Jan’s account, saying that Mr. Jan had fabricated the story about being pressured to release the drug shipment in order to damage President Karzai.

But Khan Mohammad, the former Afghan commander in Kandahar who was Mr. Jan’s superior in 2004, said in a recent interview that Mr. Jan reported at the time that he had received a call from the Karzai aide ordering him to release the drug cache. Khan Mohammad recalled that Mr. Jan believed that the call had been instigated by Ahmed Wali Karzai, not the president.

“This was a very heavy issue,” Mr. Mohammad said.

He provided the same account in an October 2004 interview with The Christian Science Monitor. Mr. Mohammad said that after a subordinate captured a large shipment of heroin about two months earlier, the official received repeated telephone calls from Ahmed Wali Karzai. “He was saying, ‘This heroin belongs to me, you should release it,’ ” the newspaper quoted Mr. Mohammad as saying.

Languishing in Detention

In 2006, Mr. Kheri, the Afghan informant, tipped off American counternarcotics agents to another drug shipment. Mr. Kheri, who had proved so valuable to the United States that his family had been resettled in Virginia in 2004, briefly returned to Afghanistan in 2006.

The heroin in the truck that was seized was to be delivered to Ahmed Wali Karzai’s bodyguard in the village of Maidan Shahr, and then transported to Kandahar, one of the Afghans involved in the deal later told American investigators, according to notes of his debriefing. Several Afghans — the drivers and the truck’s owner — were arrested by Afghan authorities, but no action was taken against Mr. Karzai or his bodyguard, who investigators believe serves as a middleman, the American officials said.

In 2007, Mr. Kheri visited Afghanistan again, once again serving as an American informant, the officials said. This time, however, he was arrested by the Karzai government and charged in the 2002 assassination of Hajji Abdul Qadir, an Afghan vice president, who had been a political rival of Mr. Kheri’s brother, Hajji Zaman, a former militia commander and a powerful figure in eastern Afghanistan.

Mr. Kheri, in the phone interview from Kabul, denied any involvement in the killing and said his arrest was politically motivated. He maintained that the president’s brother was involved in the heroin trade.

“It’s no secret about Wali Karzai and drugs,” said Mr. Kheri, who speaks English. “A lot of people in the Afghan government are involved in drug trafficking.”

Mr. Kheri’s continued detention, despite the Afghan court’s order to release him, has frustrated some of the American investigators who worked with him.

In recent months, they have met with officials at the State Department and the office of the Director of National Intelligence seeking to persuade the Bush administration to intervene with the Karzai government to release Mr. Kheri.

“We have just left a really valuable informant sitting in jail to rot,” one investigator said.

Carlotta Gall contributed reporting from Kabul, Afghanistan

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed: <
/a>| RUPEE NEWS | October 9th, 2008 | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |

NATO needs 400,000 soldiers in Afghanistan. According to British and American General, even that would not be enough to defeat the Taliban. No country or group of countries have that amount of manpower to spare. The financial crisis in America and Europe makes it virtually impossible for the UK to send in an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The Europeans and NATO is unable and unwilling to continue the war in Afghanistan.

There is not military solution to the Afghan quagmire. We have been advocating a more comprehensive solution for a decade. Replacing Mr. Karzai with Zalmay Khalilzad is like moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. The whole game is over. The US and European media too busy with the US elections has still not caught up with the reality of the fiasco in Kabul. The end is near.

Rupee News for several years has proposed that the Pakhtun areas of Afghanistan should be handed over to the Pakistani military and NATO and ISAF should leave Pakistan. Now this is affirmed by some American Thinktanks. Saving the Pashtuns of Afghania from Afghanistan. Eradicating the Pashtun plight and ending occupation. (http://rupeenews.com/2008/01/31/saving-pashtuns-of-old-afghanistan-in-afghania-eradicating-pashtun-plight-ending-occupation/)

Solution: ‘Pakistani boots’ on the ground inside Afghanistan (http://rupeenews.com/2008/09/06/solution-%e2%80%98pakistani-boots-on-the-ground-inside-afghanistan/)…a more compliant president Zardari will work with the new Afghan president Zalmay Khalilzad (expected to win the next elections in Afghanistan). Zalmay Khalilzad and Asif Zardari have been involved in a long term tet-a-tet even before the murder of Ms. Benzair Bhutto. Solution: ‘Pakistani boots’ on the ground inside Afghanistan Rupee News Akhbar Navees. September 6th, 2008

Taliban wake-up call for IndiaBy M K Bhadrakumar
For the bulk of the Indian strategic community, the unthinkable is happening – the prospect of an Afghan settlement involving the Taliban is increasing.

A sensational expose by an investigative journalist, based on highly sensitive cable traffic last month between the French Embassy in Kabul and Quai d’Orsay in Paris, has thrown light on the Afghan war. For India, it is especially helpful in spotting the war, otherwise hidden behind the global banking meltdown and the India-United States civilian nuclear deal.

Claude Angeli, veteran journalist of Le Canard Enchaine, got hold of a copy of a coded cable by the French deputy chief of mission in Kabul, Francois Fitou, based on a briefing by the heavyweight

British diplomat, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, who serves as ambassador to Afghanistan. What Sir Sherard told Fitou in confidence is worth recalling:

• “The current situation [in Afghanistan] is bad; the security situation is getting worse; so is corruption and the government [of President Hamid Karzai] has lost all trust.”
• “The foreign forces are ensuring the survival of a regime which would collapse without them … They are slowing down and complicating an eventual exit from the crisis, which will probably be dramatic.”
• “We [NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies] should tell them [United States] that we want to be part of a winning strategy, not a losing one. In the short term, we should dissuade the American presidential candidates from getting more bogged down in Afghanistan … The American strategy is doomed to fail.”
• Britain aimed to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2010.
• The only realistic outlook for Afghanistan would be the installation of “an acceptable dictator” and the public opinion should be primed for this.

For the bulk of the Indian strategic community, the unthinkable is happening – the prospect of an Afghan settlement involving the Taliban. From all accounts, the Taliban appear edging closer to the Afghan capital and tightening their control in the provinces ringing Kabul.

Unsurprisingly, Karzai has appealed to King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia to mediate with the Taliban. To request the Saudi king to stake his prestige is serious business. Karzai couldn’t have acted alone. Alongside there are reports that the British intelligence has been talking to Taliban envoys in London.

The influential Asharq al-Awsat newspaper reported that senior Taliban functionaries who travelled to Saudi Arabia in the recent days have put forward 11 conditions, which include the withdrawal of foreign forces, political accommodation of the Taliban in key ministries and the drawing up of a new constitution that affirms Afghanistan as an Islamic state.

Indian policymakers, who have been bogged down in the labyrinthine passage of the Indo-US nuclear deal, need to take note that the ground is dramatically shifting. Regional security is set to transform. Several factors call for reckoning. First, there is cause to worry about Washington’s attention span in the period ahead to press ahead with the Afghan war.

The big issue in America is the bailout of the economy. As well-known columnist Alexander Cockburn summed up, the Americans are indifferent to whether vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin is capable of waging a nuclear war or frying “Afghan terrorists”. Their sole concern today is that in the political tier in Washington, they have someone “who sounds somewhat like a human being with the same concerns as them, starting with the fear that their local bank will lock its doors in the morning”.

That is truly an extraordinary recalibration of national priorities for a world power. Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, during their debate on September 26, paid lip service to Afghanistan but were preoccupied with the new priorities. Both took the easy way out, agreeing that they would take troops out of Iraq and put them in the Hindu Kush. But is it that simple? Surely, there is a vague sense of bipartisan enthusiasm in the US for an Afghan “surge”. The new US commander in Afghanistan, General David McKiernan, says he could do with three additional brigades to the one promised by the Pentagon, which will add at least 15,000 troops to the current 35,000.

But the total allied force level in Afghanistan stands at just above 70,000, including the US troops. The NATO allies are reluctant to commit more troops. After much US persuasion, French President Nicolas Sarkozy chose to be helpful, adding a measly 100 troops to the French contingent, while opinion polls show that two out of every three French citizens disapprove of the war. The outgoing NATO commander estimated that 400,000 troops were needed to defeat the Taliban. An optimal troop level is impossible to be met. The US and its NATO allies simply do not have the capacity to deploy the troops necessary to force a military settlement or to pacify and occupy Afghanistan.

Even with additional troops, to quote the new head of the US Central Command, David Petraeus, “wresting control of certain areas from the Taliban will be very difficult”.

Petraeus’ approach is to repeat his tactic in Iraq, to bribe the Pashtun tribesmen and to turn them against the pro-Taliban groups – in other words, hire Pashtun mercenaries to fight the war. Given the Pashtun character and tribal ethos, the strong likelihood is that the tribal belt will become anarchic and the war will spread to Pakistan. Its effect on Pakistan will be catastrophic, but the expansion of the war is unlikely to stem the tide within Afghanistan, which has gone badly wrong for Western forces.

The Taliban today operate in virtually every Afghan province. They have the capacity to mount sustained offensives. It has created a parallel government structure. Pamela Constable, correspondent of The Washington Post and old hand on the South Asia beat, wrote recently: “In many districts a short drive from the capital, some of them considered safe even six months ago, residents and officials said the Taliban now control roads and villages, patrolling in trucks and recruiting new fighters.”
Meanwhile, a new dimension has appeared. The incoming US administration in January may not consider doubling down in Afghanistan as an option at a time when its attention is riveted on putting together a rescue package for the American economy. How would this scenario play out in the tangled Afghan mountains – precisely, how would the protagonists of the Afghan resistance view Washington’s difficulty in financially sustaining the open-ended war effort?

‘Deep, rich chuckle’
Irrepressible British columnist Neil Lyndon obviously made a point when he wrote last week: “Whenever the wind stops howling over the mountains of Tora Bora, a deep, rich chuckle can presumably be heard echoing down the valleys. If he is still alive, nobody will be enjoying the plight of America more than Osama bin Laden. The anarchic carnage in the American financial and political system brings in sight a humiliating withdrawal and defeat in Afghanistan and Iraq. It even raises the possibility of the final collapse of the evil empire which Osama forecast.”

Gloomy, but entirely plausible. A perception is growing that with the US government taking responsibility for $5 trillion in liabilities in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and under compulsion to pledge billions to support the financial system, there is bound to be difficulty in bearing the combined cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, which the US Congressional Budget Office estimated could total $2.4 trillion over the coming decade. No wonder, a feeling is gaining ground in Afghanistan and Pakistan that it is a matter of time before Washington makes a deal with the Taliban for a coalition government.

The interplay of these various factors will accelerate as Afghanistan gears up for the presidential election in 2009. The election year will be highly divisive. There is a challenge to Karzai from other Afghan groups. His political base in the Pashtun areas remains fragile. The US and its allies are yet to decide whether Karzai is their best choice to hold the reins of power for another five years. Britain, in particular, has had public spats with Karzai. The failure of the war is blamed on him.

But the failure of the war is not personal. A US-style presidential system does not suit Afghanistan. The country needs a decentralized system of power-sharing and a constant search for intra-Afghan compromise. Most certainly, it means bringing the Taliban into the political process. The cardinal mistake has been that the Taliban movement is entirely conflated with al-Qaeda, whereas, to quote Tariq Ali, “If NATO and the US were to leave Afghanistan, their [the Taliban's] political evolution would most likely parallel that of Pakistan’s domesticated Islamists.”

Tariq Ali didn’t mention Maulana Fazlur Rahman, but New Delhi knows how farcical it would be to remain in the grip of paroxysms of nervousness about the redoubtable Islamist leader. India’s apprehensions withered away once the Maulana, variously described as the “Father of the Taliban”, began visiting India. Equally, India needs to do some “out-of-the-box” thinking about the Taliban. Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey. (NewAgeIslam.Com.)

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed: <
/a>| RUPEE NEWS | October 9th, 2008 | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |

Justifying the Banality of a brutal Occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Thinktanks attempt to complete the circle of complicity between a sycophantic press, and a non-inquisitive servile public. The nation is forced to accept the only argument that it is being repeatedly inundated with When Freedom fighters turn terrorist

Selective Amnesia of Americans: Pakistan is the most mistreated friend in the world

Obama’s new strategy as confused as Bush’s was inept  Will The Algeriafication of Pakistan, & the Egyptianization of Bangladesh yield an Iranian type of revolution?

Beyond US withdrawal from Afghanistan

Zaid Hamid video on Swat  Can Obama duplicate the Swat peace deal with the “Taliban” (Pakhtuns) in Afghanistan?

Fixing AfPak expedites the inevitable union between Pakistan and Afghanistan

2009: Obama’s South Asian policy: A Marshall Plan for AfPak

Will Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZ) make a difference in Pakistan?

Delhi outwitted at its own game

  Justifying the Banality of Occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Thinktanks attempt to complete the circle of complicity between a sycophantic press, and a non-inquisitive servile public. The nation is forced to accept the only argument that it is being repeatedly inundated with

Obama’s “Surgers” vs. “Exiters”: Exit strategy now or scrambled hasty retreat later

Fixing Afpak: Inability to define exit strategy spells inevitable US military catastrophy in Kabul

The emerging “Leave Afghanistan to Pakistan” strategy goes mainstream. Extricating the US from the Lost war in the Khyber  AfPak: Solutions beyond hubris, dictation, threats, sanctions, bombings, overt invasion, covert sabotage  Hindu Kush cul de sac: Why are we in Afghanistan?

Afpak backstage: Bombing the ephemeral “Hindu Kush Ho Chi Minh trail” nurtures the Khemer Rouge of the Khyber– The Taliban  Obama’s Exit strategy: Negotiating with the “Taliban” (Pakhtuns)

80% of Afghanistan is under insurgent control. Taliban sanctuaries around Kabul thumb thier noses at ISAF, NATO & US forces. Why would Taliban need safe havens far away in Pakistan?

Imperial blindness: Another Empire stuck in Af-Pak quagmire unable to extricate itself out of Kipling’s hell  Getting out of Valhalla or new goals for war in AfPak: Can Obama’s “Neocon Lite” advisors sell old wine in new bottle

Fixing AfPak expedites the inevitable union between Pakistan and Afghanistan Revising Finance 101 for the Chinese Century: Political impact of Center of Gravity shift from New York to Beijing

China sets conditions for bailing out US and buying US T-Bills  US goes begging to Beijing: India feels the pain

The end of an era: The shrinking superpower-The emerging quad led by China

Hainan Naval incident: Beijing to USA-Back off–Can’t you read the sign “Sea of China is Chinese territory”?

Why the US gave up India as a strategic partner

India’s worst nightmares come true: Long term strategic malaise  Does Obama have the courage to implement the real solutions to Obama’s Vietnam (AfPak)

Kabul: The Final assault begins. How long can NATO hang on?

Betrayels and Blackmail: Cloaking failure as success, Hiding the defeat, declaring Victory, Withdrawing from Afghanistan within 12 months

Will NATO buy the Obama Doctrine? What’s in between the lines?

India’s worst nightmare come true: Long term strategic malaise

Mumbai False flag: Indian hawk & Gujarat Chief Minister Modi exonerates Pakistan’s position. Delhi’s fails to prove Pakistan is complicit

India intoxicated by meager success is blind to real self-portrait of caste infested penury and balkanization

When will India handover terrorists Advani, Thackery, Purohit & 38 other murderers

Nuclear war in South Asia guarantees total and absolute annihilation and mutually assured destruction for India and Pakistan

Technorati Tags: Afghanistan. Pakistan,Taliban,India,USA

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed:
| RUPEE NEWS | October 9th, 2008 | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |

The NATO, ISAF and US forces are waving the white flag of surrender, the 38 insurgent groups are waving the green falg of victory and the Induans are busy packing the tri-colored flag of agression and over-reach.

Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar, a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. reports the obvious in The Asia Times–what is ubiquitously abundant on all wires.

A sensational expose by an investigative journalist, based on highly sensitive cable traffic last month between the French Embassy in Kabul and Quai d’Orsay in Paris, has thrown light on the Afghan war. For India, it is especially helpful in spotting the war, otherwise hidden behind the global banking meltdown and the India-United States civilian nuclear deal

Claude Angeli, veteran journalist of Le Canard Enchaine, got hold of a copy of a coded cable by the French deputy chief of mission in Kabul, Francois Fitou, based on a briefing by the heavyweight

British diplomat, Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles, who serves as ambassador to Afghanistan. What Sir Sherard told Fitou in confidence is worth recalling:

• “The current situation [in Afghanistan] is bad; the security situation is getting worse; so is corruption and the government [of President Hamid Karzai] has lost all trust.”
• “The foreign forces are ensuring the survival of a regime which would collapse without them … They are slowing down and complicating an eventual exit from the crisis, which will probably be dramatic.”
• “We [NATO - North Atlantic Treaty Organization allies] should tell them [United States] that we want to be part of a winning strategy, not a losing one. In the short term, we should dissuade the American presidential candidates from getting more bogged down in Afghanistan … The American strategy is doomed to fail.”
• Britain aimed to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan by 2010.
• The only realistic outlook for Afghanistan would be the installation of “an acceptable dictator” and the public opinion should be primed for this.

For the bulk of the Indian strategic community, the unthinkable is happening – the prospect of an Afghan settlement involving the Taliban is increasing. A sensational expose by an investigative journalist, based on highly sensitive cable traffic last month between the French Embassy in Kabul and Quai d’Orsay in Paris, has thrown light on the Afghan war. For India, it is especially helpful in spotting the war, otherwise hidden behind the global banking meltdown and the India-United States civilian nuclear deal. Taliban wake-up call for IndiaBy M K Bhadrakumar

Excedrin and Peopto Bismal and Tums are being rolled into Indian tanks. After spending a Billion Dolalrs in Afghanistan, India once again has nothing to show for it.

NATO needs 400,000 soldiers in Afghanistan. According to British and American General, even that would not be enough to defeat the Taliban. No country or group of countries have that amount of manpower to spare. The financial crisis in America and Europe makes it virtually impossible for the UK to send in an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan. The Europeans and NATO is unable and unwilling to continue the war in Afghanistan.

There is not military solution to the Afghan quagmire. We have been advocating a more comprehensive solution for a decade. Replacing Mr. Karzai with Zalmay Khalilzad is like moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. The whole game is over. The US and European media too busy with the US elections has still not caught up with the reality of the fiasco in Kabul. The end is near.

Rupee News for several years has proposed that the Pakhtun areas of Afghanistan should be handed over to the Pakistani military and NATO and ISAF should leave Pakistan. Now this is affirmed by some American Thinktanks. Saving the Pashtuns of Afghania from Afghanistan. Eradicating the Pashtun plight and ending occupation. (http://rupeenews.com/2008/01/31/saving-pashtuns-of-old-afghanistan-in-afghania-eradicating-pashtun-plight-ending-occupation/)

Solution: ‘Pakistani boots’ on the ground inside Afghanistan (http://rupeenews.com/2008/09/06/solution-%e2%80%98pakistani-boots-on-the-ground-inside-afghanistan/)…a more compliant president Zardari will work with the new Afghan president Zalmay Khalilzad (expected to win the next elections in Afghanistan). Zalmay Khalilzad and Asif Zardari have been involved in a long term tet-a-tet even before the murder of Ms. Benzair Bhutto. Solution: ‘Pakistani boots’ on the ground inside Afghanistan Rupee News Akhbar Navees. September 6th, 2008

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed:
| RUPEE NEWS | October 9th, 2008 | Akhbar Navees | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |