Strategic Depth 2015: The beginning of ‘Takmeel e Pakistan’

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“To me, I confess, [countries] are pieces on a chessboard upon which is being played out a game for dominion of the world.” Lord Curzon, viceroy of India, speaking about Afghanistan, 1898

Pakistan is the epicenter of World diplomacy. Lord Curzon once said, one who controls Central Asia owns the world. Pakistan is at the cross roads of Bharati hegemonic designs, China’s rise towards global power, the West’s desire to access the oil of Central Asia, Russian dreams to reach the warm waters of the Asian Ocean (aka Indian Ocean), American designs to contain China, Washington’s policy or sanctioning Iran, and the tectonic shift between the Middle East, South Asia and Northern Asia.

Bharati nationalism vs Chinese nation building came to a head in 1962 and remains unresolved. This is responsible for the tensions in Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh and Pakistan.

Afghanistan Pakistan union map-the only way to bring peace to West Asia. This is the vision of Pakistan. Ralph Peters and others are scared of the inevitable union of Pakistan and Afghanistan

Pakistan Days in 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 will provide deep insights into “Takmeel e Pakistan”: A reminder “Pakistan manzil nahin–nishan e manzil hai”. This means “Pakistan is not the goal–but a means to achieve the goal. The goal of course remains creation of the Muslim Union in West Asia, similar to the European Union. The exodus of foreign troops from the Hindu Kush will surely lead to a Post-Soviet withdrawal. At the time there was no border between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Even today more than 50,000 people cross the soft border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Millions of Afghans still live in Pakistan and millions of Afghans were born in Pakistan.

The retreating American troops will be completing their withdrawal in 2013. Rupee News has been consistently predicting that the retreat would happen in 2013–our prescient prediction was validated by Mr. Panetta last week when he confirmed that all combat operations will begin ending soon.

It is also clear that the root cause of the problem is the ineffectiveness of the security policies in Afghanistan, including the presence of foreign troops. The allies have spent about more than a Trillion there and have been fighting for ten years, but what are the results? First, the insurgency has gained strength, it is not ebbing. Second, despite the presence of such a large number of international troops, Afghanistan has become the largest producer of poppy in the world, which, according to Barnett Rubin of New York University, provides the militants with more than $100 million a year for fighting the war. Third, neither the US nor the EU countries accept casualties. It is bad politics in their countries when soldiers die and there are stringent demands for a troop recall when the body bags increase. Apparently it is thus clear that it is not the efforts of the international force in Afghanistan alone that will provide results in the fight against militancy but assistance from Pakistan which will remain a critical ingredient in any solution to the Afghan problem.

Continent of Dinia and dependencies Chaudhry Rehmat Ali . This map shows the Muslim majority aras of South Asia. This was the vision for Pakistan and Bangistan. Quaid e Azam struggled and the Muslims struggles for this solution. Chaudhry Rehmat Ali described the Continent of “Dinia” and dependencies. Ch. Rehmat Ali’s map depicted Muslim rule in South Asia after the British left. The Muslim homelands would be carved out of “Dinia”. This was the struggle for independence. Rehmat Ali and the Muslims wanted the region returned to Muslim rule as it was before the British arrived

One fact that is easily overlooked is that Pakistan is also the logistical hub for the supply of oil and material to US forces operating in Afghanistan. Every day 300 trucks carry more than three million gallons of fuel by road to the military forces there. Additionally plenty other military goods are also transited via Karachi. Furthermore, Pakistan’s pivotal role becomes more pronounced in the context of the recent Russian resurgence.

If the Pakistan-US relationship is to prosper, especially with a new president now in office, then the time has come for the US to recognise Pakistan’s genuine reservations and to re-strategise the Afghan war, so as to make it more acceptable to Pakistan. Wednesday, September 10, 2008 by Khalid Aziz

The next decade will witness the denouement of unilateralism and America’s last hoorah in the Middle East and South Asia will come to an ignominious end.

Here is the scenario as we see it. As the US, NATO and ISAF leave, the band of mercenaries will scramble out of Afghanistan. The ANA will be managed and operated by Marines and drones, keeping the Kabul regime propped up. Some dramatic attacks by the Taliban will be aggressively responded to by the US and NATO forces, however within a few months, the energy and passion will subside, as Afghanistan become America’s last war, and according to some the lost war.

ECO: Iran Turkey Pakistan Afghanistan Khazakstan Uzbekstan Kyrgystan Turkenmenistan

The ANA will begin to dissolve and disintegrate, unable to handle the onslaught of the Afghan National Resistance. In 2014 and 2015, Mr. Karzai and puppets like him will lose their foothold and find a villa in Bhrat–if they resist they will be found hanging from a lamp-post in Kabul.

Chinese, Russia, Pakistani and Iranian pressure will force the evacuation of all US forces from Pakistan.

At that point Pakistan will confederate with Afghanistan and will aggressively push for the Muslim Union–that will be the beginning of the achievement of the goal of Pakistan.

When the history of the world is written the year 2001 will the year when historians will peg a milestone. That is the year, when the USA at the peak of its power squandered away the tremendous goodwill and respect that people around the world had for America, American values and American freedoms. A new report by the Intelligence Community lists the facts already known around the world-the planet is moving away from a unipolar world to a pre-ww2 world of many poles.

Mr. Parag Khanna in the “2nd world” clearly states that the China, and Europe and possibly Russia will be the new poles. He also says that India has missed the boat superpower status again. Cowed down by penury, 89 insurgencies and wars with all her neighbors, India had the opportunity in the 50s, and in the past six decades to make peace with her neighbors and abandon its revanchist irredentist policies. It took the socialistic route and kept not only itself, but also all of South Asia –as the only island of poverty in Asia.

The new poles will be China and the US and Europe with other regional powers like Israel, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, Australia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and India who will vie for power to make the second and third tier.

Reduced Dominance Is Predicted for U.S. Analyst Previews Report to Next President By Joby Warrick and Walter Pincus Washington Post Staff Writers Wednesday, September 10, 2008; A02

An intelligence forecast being prepared for the next president on future global risks envisions a steady decline in U.S. dominance in the coming decades, as the world is reshaped by globalization, battered by climate change, and destabilized by regional upheavals over shortages of food, water and energy.

The report, previewed in a speech by Thomas Fingar, the U.S. intelligence community’s top analyst, also concludes that the one key area of continued U.S. superiority — military power — will “be the least significant” asset in the increasingly competitive world of the future, because “nobody is going to attack us with massive conventional force.”

Fingar’s remarks last week were based on a partially completed “Global Trends 2025″ report that assesses how international events could affect the United States in the next 15 to 17 years. Speaking at a conference of intelligence professionals in Orlando, Fingar gave an overview of key findings that he said will be presented to the next occupant of the White House early in the new year.

“The U.S. will remain the preeminent power, but that American dominance will be much diminished,” Fingar said, according to a transcript of the Thursday speech. He saw U.S. leadership eroding “at an accelerating pace” in “political, economic and arguably, cultural arenas.”

The 2025 report will lay out what Fingar called the “dynamics, the dimensions, the drivers” that will shape the world for the next administration and beyond. In advance of its completion, intelligence officials have begun briefing the major presidential candidates on the security threats that they would be likely to face in office. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) received an initial briefing Sept. 2, with Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) expected to receive one in the coming days, intelligence officials said.

As described by Fingar, the intelligence community’s long-term outlook has darkened somewhat since the last report in 2004, which also focused on the impact of globalization but was more upbeat about its consequences for the United States. The new view is in line with that of prominent economists and other global thinkers who have argued that America’s influence is shrinking as economic powerhouses such as China assert themselves on the global stage. The trend is described in the new book “The Post-American World,” in which author Fareed Zakaria writes that the shift is not about the “decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else.”

In the new intelligence forecast, it is not just the United States that loses clout. Fingar predicts plummeting influence for the United Nations, the World Bank and a host of other international organizations that have helped maintain political and economic stability since World War II. It is unclear what new institutions can fill the void, he said.

In the years ahead, Washington will no longer be in a position to dictate what new global structures will look like. Nor will any other country, Fingar said. “There is no nobody in a position . . . to take the lead and institute the changes that almost certainly must be made in the international system,” he said.

The predicted shift toward a less U.S.-centric world will come at a time when the planet is facing a growing environmental crisis, caused largely by climate change, Fingar said. By 2025, droughts, food shortages and scarcity of fresh water will plague large swaths of the globe, from northern China to the Horn of Africa.

For poorer countries, climate change “could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back,” Fingar said, while the United States will face “Dust Bowl” conditions in the parched Southwest. He said U.S. intelligence agencies accepted the consensual scientific view of global warming, including the conclusion that it is too late to avert significant disruption over the next two decades. The conclusions are in line with an intelligence assessment produced this summer that characterized global warming as a serious security threat for the coming decades.

Floods and droughts will trigger mass migrations and political upheaval in many parts of the developing world. But among industrialized states, declining birthrates will create new economic stresses as populations become grayer. In China, Japan and Europe, the ratio of working adults to seniors “begins to approach one to three,” he said.

The United States will fare better than many other industrial powers, in part because it is relatively more open to immigration. Newcomers will inject into the U.S. economy a vitality that will be absent in much of Europe and Japan — countries that are “on a good day, highly chauvinistic,” he said.

“We are just about alone in terms of the highly developed countries that will continue to have demographic growth sufficient to ensure continued economic growth,” Fingar said.

Energy security will also become a major issue as India, China and other countries join the United States in seeking oil, gas and other sources for electricity. The Chinese get a good portion of their oil from Iran, as do many U.S. allies in Europe, limiting U.S. options on Iran. “So the turn-the-spigot-off kind of thing — even if we could do it — would be counterproductive.”

Nearly absent from Fingar’s survey was the topic of terrorism. Since the last such report, the intelligence community has projected a declining role for al-Qaeda, which was deemed likely to become “increasingly decentralized, evolving into an eclectic array of groups, cells, and individuals.” Inspired by al-Qaeda, “regionally based groups, and individuals labeled simply as jihadists — united by a common hatred of moderate regimes and the West — are likely to conduct terrorist attacks,” the 2004 document said.

The new assessment saw a continued threat from Iran, however. Fingar predicted steady progress in the Islamic republic’s attempts to create enriched uranium, the essential fuel used in nuclear weapons and commercial power reactors. For now, however, there is no evidence that Iran has resumed work on building a weapon, Fingar said, echoing last year’s landmark National Intelligence Estimate on Iran, which concluded that warhead-design work had halted in 2003.

He said Iran’s ultimate decision on whether to build nuclear weapons depended on how its leaders viewed their “security requirement” — whether they thought their government sufficiently safe in a region surrounded by traditional enemies.

Iranians are “more scared of their neighbors than many think they ought to be,” Fingar said. But he noted that the United States had eliminated two of Iran’s biggest enemies: Iraq’s Saddam Hussein and the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

“The United States took care of Iran’s principal security threats,” he said, “except for us, which the Iranians consider a mortal threat.”

,” the 2004 document said.

Strategic Depth 2015: The beginning of ‘Takmeel e Pakistan’

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