Afghanistan (Photo credit: Ricymar Fine Art Photography)
American thinkers are still functioning under the paradigm of a unipolar world. Just like it took Russia some time to realize that it was no longer a superpower, it will take Washington thinker some time to realize the that the world does not circumnavigate around the wishes of the White House anymore. American planners have not digested the meaning of “over-reach” and totally are still lost in Alexander’s dream of conquering the world. Just like the Macedonian, they continue to try to move beyond the Oxus (though in a different direction), even though the supply lines and the forces on the ground no longer want to advance anymore.
US general want to use the drones to attack more and more folks in Pakistan. Instead of planning a planned withdrawal, they continue to find reasons to exacerbate the fighting.
Dr. Thomas F. Lynch III is Distinguished Research Fellow for South Asia. He has written a prodigious article for Foreign Policy, a magazine usually dedicated to castigating Pakistan, and eulogizing the work of the US armed forces in West Asia.
Lynch convincingly describes the mechanics of the destruction of Al-Qaeda and correctly describes the ground situation in Afghanistan where the so called “bait” of Mullah Omar to Bin Laden definitely does to extend to those who try to run that organization now. Lynch in effect thus says that the US focus should not be on targeting second and third tier so called leaders in Afghanistan. Instead, Lynch says that the US objectives should be to reduce the tension between Pakistan and India.
“American policy must wake up to the fact that the risks of devastating proxy war between India and Pakistan now dwarf the risks of al-Qaeda’s return to unfettered sanctuary and recalibrate its diplomatic energies and military priorities accordingly.”
Lynch says that Washington must calm down the neighborhood. “The United States must reduce its present focus on killing off every last al-Qaeda affiliated leader or mid-level Haqqani Network operative in Pakistan and pay far more attention to the factors necessary to inhibit proxy war in Afghanistan”
He says that Islamabad see the Afghan National Army as an extension of the Indian Army “a tense but enduring U.S. diplomatic relationship with Pakistan designed to calm its fears that growing Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will become an Indian-directed dagger aimed at Pakistan’s back, and diplomatic engagement with Pakistan and India on an acceptable political and security framework for Afghanistan into the next decade.”
Lynch however argues for a long term stay in Afghanistan “NATO force planners then must devise processes to draw down to the residual U.S./coalition military stabilization forces necessary to stay on for the rest of the decade, enforce this essential Indo-Pakistani framework agreement, and serve as a buttress against points of friction or violence in Afghanistan that could descend into the chaos of a proxy war conflict.”
Lynch understand the uphill task of this venture “these vital outcomes will require earnest and difficult negotiations with the Pakistanis, Indians, Afghan Taliban, and northern ethnic groups in Afghanistan. Negotiations focused on these outcomes have not even begun. It is time that they do.”
The author however ignores the new reality of Pakistan’s FOreign Minister visiting Russia, establishing a strategic partnership with Moscow In the meeting this week Moscow was sympathetic to Pakistan’s request to join the SCO, and plans to assist its South Asian “neighbor” in energy, trade and other areas. It is pedagogical to note that Moscow is also engaging Islamabad in what it calls the Dushambe Four.
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Link to FP magazine article here:
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/08/the_80_percent_solution
From the same article:
Al-Qaeda may continue to drape itself in the Taliban flag and proclaim allegiance to Mullah Omar, but with bin Laden’s death the Afghan Taliban faces one stark certainty. While it shares a loose but important Salafi jihadist credo with al-Qaeda, it remains dependent on all manner of support for its insurgency from elements within and beholden to the Pakistani security services. Afghan Taliban leaders must calculate their futures based upon this dominant reality.
The think tankers were not expecting a failure of such magnitude, the PNAC was derailed by Bush and cronies who followed a personal agenda supported by the Pro Zionists to attack Iraq under a false pretext (A belligerent and horrible lie).
It was Bush’s assumption the Afghanistan w-ar was at an end surprised by the lack of resistance from the Afghans notorious for resisting.
Rather than Bush cement some real long lasting relationship with Afghans, rebuilding Afghanistan he turned is focus to Iraq leaving his Neocon Afghanistan focus blind that has cost America her Project for the New American Century without Iraq, Afghanistan and the wider Middle East.
The PNAC signatories that made up the notorious Neocon inner circle had absolute no reasoning that their misadventures will create new alliances. The Neocon horribly defined such counter alliances as axis of evil which has isolated America for a long time from nations who were somewhat in the middle.
Was this a Neocon blunder which is likely because of the manner they conducted themselves or were they unexpectedly hijacked by the pro Zionist and pro India lobbies each furthering their own regional agenda that was not in the long term interest of USA hence why Zbigniew Brzezinski the chief architect of the Eurasian Grand Game was at complete wits ends with the Neocons.
Obama was Zbigniew Brzezinski protégé to mend the errors of his predecessor. Obama inherited the worse war in modern history from a belligerent incompetent president and an equally incompetent right wing administration.
There was little Obama could do to bring back America’s glory because the covert operations signed by the Bush administration were already being implemented and the insurgency was at its highest.
Obama tried his hardest to restore Pakistan’s image as a credible partner but the damage had already been done, manufactured terrorists were already putting oil to the fire and it was clear as Zbigniew Brzezinski mentions in an interview last year Pakistan the lynch pin to an American Eurasian strategy had already been lost.
Obama could not implement his differing approach and nor could he call back some of the covert operations destabilising Pakistan. The American public was extremely polarised from years of hysteria created by The Bush era.
Obama wanted change, some re-direction and wanted to control Pakistan as opposed to work with it. Obama did so because they wanted China isolated from Pakistan which would never happen. If I were to imagine Obama battling with the zealots seeking anarchy and chaos in the Greater Middle East defined as Central Asia it was a pandemonium.
Generals who have their own agendas, think tanks still pushing a pro Indian pro Neocon agenda, Covert operations from many foreign intelligence agencies inside Afghanistan working to their own agendas, a rising insurgency and a polarised region that was regrouping.
Old alliances were broken and shattered by the devastating policies of The Neocon, new realities were born. If America is to salvage anything from this horrible and unjust war it must come to terms with the emerging reality and chose a friend.
The conflict is likely to continue and the ANA is no match for The Taliban and questions really need to be answered did India deliver? The correct answer is no, neither is Pakistan dismembered nor is it isolated from its neighbours if anything Pakistan’s neighbours have recognised Pakistan’s legitimate role in the region and the very building block to a stable and progressive, integrated Central Asia.
America did not get the entire cake and continued support for the wrong policy will see that not only it loses any long term strategic influence but the knock on effect on European and Atlantic economy will be to catastrophic.
America should think about the slice and not the entire cake. Can
America curb back the Israelis beating the drums of war and aggression but can America also tone down India over Pakistan. The latter is a highly political animal a chameleon and is a master of adjusting and compromising for its own end.
Can we please have a stable Central Asia, integrated, progressive and build it as another global commerce hub which will bare fruits for American and Europeans but also for the regional players.
Your quote is not breaking news–this allegation has been around for a decade….the thing is no one can do anything about it.
We already pointed this out. Calling them names wont change the reality of how they control most of Afghanistan. The Talibs will support Pakistan. They controlled Afghanistan yesterday, they control Afghanistan today, and they will control Afghanistan tomorrow. They, like all real Afghans will continue to support Pakistan. Pakistan will support the Afghans because they are the same people.
So be scared of the “security services”, and those who are “beholden”–the are the progeny of Mahmud Ghaznivi, Ahmed Shah Abdali and Nadir Shah. The Byaman issue was a trial run, they are headed to Somnath again!