Many wonder why the US is helping Pakistan in the current crisis. Some skeptics wonder if it has anything to do with the war in Afghanistan. News reports are now filtering in that the war in Afghanistan is on hold. NATO, ISAF and US forces cannot fight without food, water, and ammunition reaching them. There is a small warehouse of back-up material stored in Afghanistan, and some supplies are brought in from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan–however the bulk of the supplies traverse the Pakistani Indus Highway and the Shahrah e Sher Shah Suri (formerly known as the Grand Trunk Road) from Karachi to Torkham.

Mother Nature has destroyed the logistics chain and NATO supplies cannot traverse the Pakistani countryside. The SSSS/GT Road cannot support the NATO trucks during the torrential “Barsaat” (Monsoon rains). The US is trying its level best to assist the Pakistan army in opening up the supply chain routes–and this is being called “Aid to Pakistan”.

The US press is silent on the issue, but an important report from the Pakistan Tribune is a poignant reminder of the facts on the ground.

ISLAMABAD: The supply line for Afghanistan-based Nato forces, which has been cut because of devastating floods in Pakistan, may not be restored shortly, it was learnt here on Wednesday.

“It is really a good news for us that the Nato supply line through Pakistan has been cut because of devastating floods,” said Qari Ziaur Rehman, a Kunar-based Taliban commander while talking to our sources via telephone from an undisclosed location in Afghanistan.

“Of course, we are extremely saddened by the loss of precious human lives and the colossal economic losses because of devastation caused by floods in Pakistan but on the other hand we are also very happy because it is immensely beneficial for us keeping in view the effects of floods on the Nato supply line through Pakistan,” he said.

The Taliban commander said that they were now in much better position in the ongoing Kandahar operation of the US and allied forces in southern Afghanistan. He said that the Nato supplies were being transported through Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces of Pakistan but now the supply line had been completely cut off by the floods.

The massive military operation in Kandahar is the linchpin of McChrystal’s strategy to turn the tide this year, using the bulk of 30,000 reinforcements sent by US President Barack Obama in a final “surge” of extra troops announced in December last. US commanders had initially seen the main thrust of military operation in Kandahar running from June to the beginning of August before Ramazan.

“Although the holy month of Ramazan has begun, our mujahideen will continue their actions unabated. We are not going to scale down our operations and the attacks on the US and Nato forces as well as other foreigners will continue with the same thrust,” the Taliban commander said. Floods cut Nato supply line to Afghanistan. Thursday August 12, 2010 (1022 PST)

It is abundantly apparent that the war in Afghanistan has not being going well. The prognosis for the future is now grim. The US now faces a broken supply chain which will have to be rebuilt. Many bridges have to be reconstructed, and the road may not be pliable. The USSR could not win the war in Afghanistan because their supply lines were repeatedly attacked ’till they were broken and choked. The Soviet Army had endemic shortages of fuel and equipment–and on many occasions could not venture out of its barracks because of he shortage and unreliability of a supply-line.

It is obvious that the Afghan National Resistance (Taliban, Haqqanis, Hikmatyars, etc) while sorrowful for the loss of life of fellow Muslims in Pakistan are ecstatic about mother nature’s intervention in interrupting the supply chain of goods and materials.

The US has not been paying Pakistan the international rates on octroi tolls and has pretty much been using the roads for free. Over a decade the only the toll-rates would have amounted to billions of Dollars. The US has abused the Pakistani Highway system–which was built for Pakistan not for conducting a war in Afghanistan. The US has not upgraded the roads or even repaired them.

If the US wants to continue the war in Afghanistan, it may have to quickly build the bridges and upgrade the roads on the West banks of the Indus.