India should reinvent itself. The first version is not working. A major upgrade is in order–perhaps a re-implementation. Prime Minster Manmohan Singh was thrown a huge party in Washington–mislabeled “A state dinner”. It wasn’t a State dinner–the state dinner is between heads of sates, and President Patil was not not present in Washington. That didn’t stop the media from lavishing praise on the the grand relationship. Mr. Akbar, a huge Pakistanphobe said it best “Pakistan gets 1.5 billion Dollars, India gets 1.5 billion words”. The cheap wine served at the White House could not hide the fact that President Obama has stubbornly refused to operationalize the 123 Nuclear deal between Delhi and Washington–long considered in Delhi as the epitome of the Indo-US relationship.
That rebuff should have given Bharat a hint of what was coming down the pike.
The global financial crisis, and the fact that China, not New York is the America’s new banker has changed the realities on the ground. The fact that the Afghan Taliban control 80% of the land of Afghanistan has also placed new parameters on American projection of its global power. The Army’s Kayani Doctrine. General Kayani has laid down the law–Islamabad expects parity with India as regards the US strategic partnership.
Quintessentially, Pakistan has put its demands vis-a-vis Karzai on the table: Islamabad seeks the “stabilization” of Afghanistan with a minimal Indian role and presence and expects traditional Pashtun influence in the power structure in Kabul will be restored. Asia Times. Ambassador Bhadrakumar
General Kayani had gone to Brussels and explained Pakistan’s position and demands. NATO and ISAF seem to have accepted those demands. The Army’s Kayani Doctrine
- But it also has an interest that is somewhat different than ours, and that is their strategic depth and always has been for a country that’s very narrow and has its historic enemy to its east. So again, we just have to appreciate this”. General Petraeus
- “This is not unique, of course, just to Afghanistan and Pakistan and throughout the world. We have interests, they have interests. What we want to do is find the conversion interest, understand where they are divergent and try to make progress together,” General Petraeus
The Pakistan army has also offered to help train the Afghan army, which will be a key instrument of power for the Afghan state. “I cannot afford to have Afghan soldiers on my western borders trained by the Indians with an Indian mindset,” Kiani is reported to have remarked recently.
As a Major Non-Nato Ally (MNNA) Pakistan is now getting the arms and equipment it needs. The arms being purchased go much beyond what is needed on the Western front.
Within the next few weeks the entire Pakistani leadership with be in Washington cementing the strategic partnership with reference to economic and military cooperation between the two countries. Pakistan wants a free and exclusive hand to bring about a coalition government in Kabul. After trying to cut down Pakistan’s stature for a decade General Pateraeus and the US Administration has now accepted the Pakistani military’s doctrine–Pakistan’s legitimate strategic depth into Afghanistan.
This of course is a slap in the face of Delhi’s proclaimed initiate into Afghanistan and Central Asia. Bharat has been evicted from Tajikistan. It eviction from Afghanistan is imminent. Delhi did not trust Hamid Karzai–instead supporting former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. Delhi got beguiled by US moves to instill Abdullah as the president. This costly miscalculation cost Delhi a lot of equity in Kabul. Bharat is not popular in Afghanistan. It was able to wriggle into Kabul using Northern Alliance and Tajik connections. Both are on the decline. Pakistan now has mended fences with the Tajiks.
Delhi was not able to press the case on the so called attack on Mumbai. As the case unravels, so does Bharat’s credibility on the world stage. Like a boy calling “wold wolf” ever few weeks, the world has shown Delhi a deaf ear. When Delhi raised the decibel level on Mumbai–multinationals moved away and the US and the UK issued travel advisories. Pune was not taken up as a cause. Clear evidence of Indian hand in Pakistani terror
Bharat is chagrined at being left out. The Bharati media is up in arms af the colossal failure of Delhi’s foreign policy. Shukla, and others have written long diatribes on how Bharat can engage with different segments of Afghan society so that it can keep a toe hold in Afghanistan. Bharat has rubbed Iran the wrong way by stabbing it at the IAEA and by launching Iran-specific satellites for Israel. Bharat is expected to playing a role in US-led sanctions against Iran. Delhi is also building the Salma Dam in Afghanistan which stops water from flowing into Iran. This is a huge bone of contention for Teheran. Pursuing a Pro-Tel Aviv policy with bring Delhi man blow-back and backlash from the region. Pakistan has traded in Jundallah for Iranian quid pro quo Iranian support in Afghanistan.
Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistan working in tandem. In fact after the diplomatic defeat in London, Bharat immediately held a major rethink on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Delhi offered Pakistan a recommencement of talks. As assertive Islamabad posed for pictures with the Bharatis, but also slipped through dossiers on Delhi’s involvement in Balochistan and FATA. During well timed intervals, the Pakistanis submitted three dossiers to Delhi on water and Kashmir.
We have written several articles on AfPak. We had suggested that AfPak did not do justice to the interlinked problems of Central Asia. What happens in Pakistan affects Afghanistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. What happens in Afghanistan affects Pakistan and Uzbekistan and so on and so forth. The entire ECO is linked by geography and neurons that take them back to the time of Babur, Taimurlane and the Mongol invasions.
While Delhi bickers with all its neighbors trying to destabilize them, Islamabad has built lasting relationships with Iran, China, and now Afghanistan.. Pakistanis have a foot in the door with the Americans. They will try to drive a Mack truck through the opening offered. Pakistan is seeking parity with Bharat in terms of strategic partnership, economic opportunity and military strength. Pakistan has this parity in the 50s and the 60s–it now seeks the parity offered to it because of its nuclear power and its influence in Afghanistan, the Central Asia states and with Turkey. Islamabad’s consensus with Iran gives it a third dimension. Its “all-weather relationship” with China offers it unprecedented clout in international relations.
Red Alert: Maoist plan to attack Indian cities. Bharat is still licking its wounds. Putin rebuffs Delhi: We need to support Pakistan’s anti-terror efforts.Chasing the Americans, Delhi has spoiled its relationship with Russia, totally antagonized China, alienated Afghanistan, and chagrined Iran. This does not bode well for a country that seeks to become a regional and world power. No country on the planet has risen to global stature without the help and assistance of all her neighbors and a huge constituency of friendly states around the globe. Bharat faces a wall of resistance in its supposed rise. Its internal cavities are deep, its communal schism poisonous, its caste system self-destructive, its occupation of Kashmir unacceptable, and its treatment of Dalits and Muslims abominable. All these internal factors, and external relations impact Bharat’s ability to be seen as a serious player on the world stage.
Vignette into India. For the past six decades Bharat languished in what was derisively called the Hindu growth rate. A rising tide raises all boats. The growth rates of the past decades were an anomaly and unsustainable–even for China. Meager economic success over the past decade has given Bharatis a swollen head. its has been unable to produce a plane, ship or missiles, it has tried to ingest Viagra in the shape planes from the US, ships from Russia and arms from Europe. This buying spree does not give it any status. Its previous purchase of hundreds of planes from Russia now are found sprinkled all over the rivers and mountains of Bharat. These gravity loving objects crashed left right and center–giving the IAF the worst possible crash record on the planet. Today almost half the IAFs planes have been grounded–the Flying Coffins, the 250 or so Mig 21s are grounded. The hundred or so Mig 27s are grounded. The five dozen or so Mig 29s hug the ground. The dozen or so Kirans of the Indian Navy have also been grounded. The Harriers should be grounded or simply placed in museums.
All this portends a different future for Bharat than the one envisaged by the RSS and the Saffron Brigade.
The past few weeks have seen the colossal failure of the Bharati (aka India) foreign policy, not just in Afghanistan, but in Iran, China, Bangaldesh, Nepal, and China.
India has to reinvent itself.
Before Delhi begins sprinting, it needs to walk. Before it can walk, it needs to have the ability to crawl. Before Bharat sets its goals on Superpower status, it needs to become a regional power. In order to become a regional power, it has to extirpate penury on its shores and earn the respect of its neighbors. Bharat has neither the friendship, nor the admiration of any of its neighbors. Enemies run near and abroad. The Bharati mentality has even made Australians leery of Indians. The temple indoctrination has to be replaced with modern education–and Pornywood is not the reality of Slumdog Hindustan–Earth, Wind, and Fire is.
