How the world has changed in the past few weeks. India is best with violence in its biggest commercial city, and assertive secessionists or seekers of autonomy aspire freedom from Delhi asking for 50 states, tearing apart the union at its very seams. The Shiv Sena xenophobia is exacerbating the Hindu-Muslim divide, Nepal is on fire sending aid and militants supporting the Naxal Maoists who control 40% of the territory belonging to India. The 450 million Dalits and Untouchables seek liberation from bondage and conversion to Islam, Christianity and Buddhism–leaving a rump minority of 1509 million “Hindus” in Bharat (aka India). The Assamese want nothing to do with Delhi or India and the Kashmiris want freedom, freedom from Delhi and freedom to join Pakistan. The neighbourhood gets more dangerous for India
On the international scene, Bharat was thrown out of its bases in Tajikistan, and faces a very uncertain future in Kabul. The international community with one voice has rallied around Islamabad and pleading for its help to extricate itself out of the Afghan quagmire. Bharat has been sidelined in a big way, and this weekends coverage in the Hindustan Times and the Times of India clearly show the malaise and siren songs of retreat.When the Guns Fizzed and the Gizmos Fizzled
After the Soviets left, their henchman Najibullah was hung by the nearest lamppost as a warning to future Najibs. Today Mr. Karzai finds himself in the same situation–seeking Pakistan’s help to talk to the Taliban and invite them to the seats of power in Kabul.
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There is confidence in Islamabad that its new importance to international interests in the region can be leveraged to secure its own interests vis-a-vis India.
As New Delhi prepares to put the Mumbai attacks behind for a re-engagement with Pakistan, there is confidence in Islamabad that its new importance to international interests in the region can be leveraged to secure its own interests vis-a-vis India.
After years of being seen as part of the problem in Afghanistan, Pakistan is savouring what it calls a vindication of its position on how to end the conflict in that country, and is confident it holds the key to the proposed new plan of “reconciliation” with the Taliban.
As evident from two sets of remarks by the Pakistan Army chief last week about what it seeks in Afghanistan and how its perceives India, New Delhi will need to factor in a resurgent Pakistani military, assertive about its concerns and self-assured of the resonance these carry in the halls of power in the U.S. and Europe.
From Pakistan’s point of view, the flurry of recent diplomatic moves on the Afghan conflict, culminating in the London Conference, was definitely the game-changer. Certainly, the new international mood seems to have played some role in drawing India back to the negotiating table. Hindustan Times. Pakistan: vindication on Afghanistan, assertive with India. Nirupama Subramanian
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Pakistan has become very assertive with reference to Bharat (aka India).
NEW DELHI (Agencies) – Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi has said that he has clear roadmap for talks with India, in which more tangible issues like the water dispute will take precedence over traditional faultlines like Kashmir.
Talking to The Times of India on Sunday, Foreign Minister Qureshi said that there were huge constituencies for peace in both nations.
“Yes, you have to understand that India-Pakistan relations have a history we can’t ignore, and we’ve some outstanding issues,” said Qureshi while responding to a question about Chief of Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s statement that Pakistan’s strategic policies will remain India-centric as long as Kashmir and water disputes are not resolved and whether the political leadership shares the view.
“The two countries recognise them and have been in negotiations through composite dialogue. These outstanding issues have been recognised internationally,” he said.
When asked about chances of J&K dispute’s resolution, he said that it was difficult to give a timeframe in this regard.
“We’ve made progress on Kashmir related CBMs. We should look at the positive developments so far made and review them. We should look at more CBMs to create a conducive environment in consultation with the Kashmiris,” he said, adding that Kashmiris were the main party in the issue and their aspirations could not be overlooked.
The Minister further said the Kashmir issue had been recognised internationally and was on the UN agenda. Similarly, the water dispute with India had been recognised internationally and the World Bank had played a role in the Indus Water Treaty in 1960, he added.The Nation
The London Conference was a huge blow to Bharati dreams in Afghanistan and beyond
LONDON MOVE STUNS INDIA
The Afghanistan conference in London last week was a shocker for Indian mandarins who had hoped to muscle in and get a larger say in Afghan policy given the money and effort New Delhi has put into the reconstruction efforts. But what happened was that India got blindsided by the British swallowing the Pakistani line that Islamabad could deliver peace by negotiating a deal with the Taliban. Shivshankar Menon, the new national security adviser, along with foreign secretary Nirupama Rao, is leading a massive review of India’s own Af-Pak policy, which will determine not just India’s approach to Afghanistan, but also craft out a new policy of engagement with Pakistan. The announcement on Thursday of resumption of foreign secretary-level talks between New Delhi and Islamabad is a movement in that direction. Indrani Bagchi, TOI Crest, 6 February 2010, 09:50am
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The Bharati diplomats and media could not believe their eyes and ears–they had been fed the line of Bharati Superpower status–now they face eviction from Kabul. The world had turned on Delhi, and Condaleeza Rice’s promise to make Bharat a Superpower was blowing up in their face.
London Conference
The details of the new approach in Afghanistan formalised at the 60-nation conference are still hazy. A cash-for-peace plan aimed at weaning away non-ideological and “moderate” Taliban fighters is one part of it, but the broad consensus emerging from the conference was that there is no way forward in Afghanistan without engaging the Taliban in dialogue, perhaps towards its eventual participation in the governance of that country.
“The outcome of the London Conference has been overall positive. It is a vindication of Pakistan’s position that we need to focus on all aspects of the strategy of the three D’s [dialogue, development and deterrence],” Abdul Basit, spokesman of Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told The Hindu. “The international community now realises that without moving forward on the reconciliation aspect, it is not possible to achieve peace in Afghanistan.”
The decisions at the London Conference were not a total surprise. There were plenty of signals that the U.S. and its NATO allies in Europe no longer believed in the possibility a military victory over the Taliban, and were looking for a dignified exit. Except that the military operations in Afghanistan will now be aimed at persuading the Taliban to negotiation, the next steps in the new roadmap for “reconciliation” and “reintegration” of the Taliban are still hazy. The main actors themselves seem unclear about many things.
Is dialogue to take place with only “moderate” sections of the Taliban? How far have talks, already reported to have begun, progressed? What will be offered to the Taliban? Will there be other parties on the table?
The U.S. remains apprehensive about the idea of talking to the top Taliban leadership. In any case, the big question for any such effort is whether the Taliban can cut off their links with Al Qaeda, give up their extremist views and reconcile with the political and social values of a democratic set-up.
Still, it is hoped that by mid-2011, when U.S. troops will begin withdrawing, enough reconciliation would have taken place for Afghans to run their country themselves.
Two countries are thought to have sufficient influence on the Taliban to be able to deliver on the London Conference decisions. Saudi Arabia, one of only three countries that recognised the Taliban-run Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan from 1996 until 9/11 — the other two were Pakistan and the United Arab Emirates — has already been asked by President Karzai to act as a mediator. The kingdom, which has no love lost for Osama bin Laden, has set the pre-condition that the Taliban must renounce Osama bin Laden and the Al Qaeda.
Pakistan still carries considerable clout with sections of the Afghan Taliban, some of whom were given safe haven on Pakistani soil when the U.S. started the war in Afghanistan after 9/11, and continue to remain in sanctuaries in the north-western frontier regions. Hindustan Times. Pakistan: vindication on Afghanistan, assertive with India. Nirupama Subramanian
The Talibs who control 80% of Afghanistan smell victory and this spring offensive will be huge affair with the Talib surge clashing with the US surge.
After some 1,200 attacks a month through all of 2009 (according to the UN), the Taliban are scenting victory in Afghanistan. A statement by Mullah Omar, rejecting the Karzai peace offer, was telling: “They have tried in the past and are trying now to entangle our Muslim and brave people and their leadership, the Islamic Emirate. Some time, they announce that they will provide money, employment and opportunity to have a comfortable life abroad, for those mujahideen who agree to part ways with jihad. They think that mujahideen have taken up arms to gain money or grab power or were compelled to turn to arms. This is baseless and futile.” It’s a no-brainer that the Taliban leadership will not be bought. Why then, should anyone expect their rank and file to defect, when they haven’t for so long?
[..]But isn’t there even a hint of a silver living? Ahmed Rashid points to Mullah Omar’s Eid message, repeated last week, that the Taliban would “pose no threat to neighbouring countries” as a sign of flexibility in the Taliban position. Indrani Bagchi, TOI Crest, 6 February 2010, 09:50am
“Gatekeepers” to the Taliban
Described as the “gatekeepers” to the Taliban, Pakistan would have a crucial role in delivering the Taliban to the table, either through coercion or persuasion. But it is being careful not to be seen as muscling in to impose its own agenda in Afghanistan. The mantra in Islamabad is that the process should be “Afghan-led”.
“Pakistan is perhaps better placed than any other country in the world to support Afghan reintegration and reconciliation. Why? We speak the same language, we have common tribes, a common religion, we have a commonality of history, culture and tradition” Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi told the Guardian. “But it [Pakistani mediation] depends on whether we are asked to do so. If asked, the government of Pakistan would be happy to facilitate.”
But suspicious of its intentions, President Karzai has not been keen to involve Pakistan as a mediator, while the rest of the international community too is aware that while Islamabad could play a positive role, it could also use its influence over the Taliban to play “spoiler.” But, most observers say, no country except Pakistan can guarantee an end to the conflict in Afghanistan.
“If any country other than Afghanistan has any role, it is Pakistan. It may not be explicit right now, but it is implicit and goes without stating. Whether it is maintaining peace, security and stability of Afghanistan,” said Mushahid Hussain Sayed, secretary-general of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), “or providing a face-saving exit for American forces, it has to be Pakistan.”
A constructive role by Pakistan is likely to come attached with the demand that the international community address its “legitimate” concerns and issues in the region.
Some of those concerns were articulated by the Pakistan Army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani when, in two meetings with journalists this week, he said India remains the primary threat to Pakistan and the focus of the Pakistani military. He spoke of the peace, security and stability of Afghanistan as the main element of Pakistan’s “strategic depth”, and said Pakistan had a more “legitimate” expectation in the matter of training the Afghan security forces than India.
A Foreign Ministry official, who wished not to be identified, was blunter: “We do not really see India playing any role in Afghanistan. Any role for India in Afghanistan can only be problematic”. On the other hand, he said, Pakistan could not be wished away from Afghanistan, and had “a more natural role” in Afghanistan, given the shared border and other links.
Also, U.S. demands to “do more” against the Afghan Taliban holed up in Pakistani territory no more hold any logic, said Imitiaz Gul, author of a book on Al Qaeda and head of the Islamabad-based Centre for Research: “These demands have to a back seat. If we have to talk to them, why antagonise them?”
The Pakistan military said last month it would not launch new offensives against militants for six months to a year as it was overstretched. The declaration was evidently meant to pre-empt any demand during the recent visit by the U.S. Defence Secretary Robert Gates for military operations in North Waziristan. Now, said Mr. Gul, the Pakistan Army would want to wait to see how the situation unfolds in Afghanistan.
As Pakistani observers see it, their country has never been better positioned in recent times. At a recent seminar in Lahore’s Punjab University, Mr. Sayed spoke of how the Obama Administration is dependent on Pakistan for its Afghanistan strategy, and on China, a close ally of Pakistan, to maintain regional stability, while India has been downgraded a couple of notches by the Obama Administration from its status during the Bush years..
“The regional situation is moving towards Pakistan’s advantage. We have a strategic opening and we should use it to our advantage,” Mr. Sayed told The Hindu. This, he said, should include reining in India from using Afghanistan for what he alleged were its covert activities in Pakistan, and pushing for a solution on the Kashmir issue.
So is Afghanistan going to turn into a battleground for the competing interests of India and Pakistan? Not necessarily, said Mr. Sayed.
“In my view, Pakistan and India do not have to compete in Afghanistan,” he said, suggesting that the two countries hold bilateral talks on Afghanistan, and “see how we can co-operate instead of compete” in that country.
At the moment, as India and Pakistan do a tug-of-war over what their renewed engagement should be called, that seems easier said than done. Hindustan Times. Pakistan: vindication on Afghanistan, assertive with India. Nirupama Subramanian
As President Obama pulls his troops out of Afghanistan, the Talibs will take over the reins of government. If there is anything that the Talibs hate more than their hatred for foreign occupiers–it is their hatred for Bharat. The Bharati Embassy should be packing up their bags and reducing the number of their consulates. Certainly, NATO, ISAF, the US, and the UK do not endorse a dozen Bharati Consulates for a dozen visas.
The PPPPs brilliant coup de grâce was the London Conference which cut down Bharat (aka India) to size and sequestered its influence East of the Indus. Bharat was evicted out of the bases in Tajikistan, then it was outmeneuvered by the Pakistanis at the London Conference where Delhi got a seat in the second row. The Times of India article validates our position, agrees that India has been defeated in the diplomatic game and notarizes all the points gained by the government and the people of Afghanistan and Kashmir. To this we say loudly and clearly Nas Run Minallah He Fatah un Qareeb.
Keywords: India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, London conference, Taliban, Afghan conflict, Lahore’s Punjab University
