General McChrystal’s confession reminds us of what Senator McCain had once said about Afghanistan.

The best way to get out of Afghanistan fast is (for) people to think we’re staying.” Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

All the games in the world surely cannot change the reality on the ground–which says that 80% of Afghanistan is in the hands of the Talibs. Malalai Joya has some advice for the US troops–Leave!

• Afghanistan’s Bravest Woman Malalai Joya: “Taliban are logistically & militarily growing stronger as each day dawns.” “Afghan women and men are not ‘liberated’ at all”
• US capitulates to Afghan Taliban: Negotiating retreat schedule

Perhaps the best advice comes from Rudayrd Kipling.

When you’re wounded and left on Afghanistan’s plains, And the women come to cut out what remains, Just roll to your rifle, and blow out your brains. And go to your God like a soldier. Rudyard Kipling author of “White Man’s Burden”

The emerging “Leave Pakistan to Afghanistan” strategy goes mainstream–Extricating the US from the Lost in the Khyber. The situation in Afghanistan is grim. General McChrystal 40,000 more troops are not changing the fact on the ground–hence the London Conference and reconciliation with the Taliban using Pakistani mediataries. Facing an outraged public which very skepitical of a perpetual war in the Hindu Kush, the Obama Administration has balked at approving the new surge asked by General McChrystal.

• McChrystal: ‘Significant Progress’ in Afghanistan
• “I am not prepared to say that we have turned the corner. So I’m saying the situation is serious, but I think we have made significant progress in setting the conditions in 2009, and beginning some progress, and that we’ll make real progress in 2010.” Gen McChrystal
• “The biggest thing is in convincing the Afghan people … This is all a war of perceptions. This is not a physical war in terms of how many people you kill or how much ground you capture, how many bridges you blow up. This is all in the minds of the participants” Gen McChrystal
• Admiral Mullen is still wrong
• The crusty specious, Admiral is mistaken about Afghanistan
• Obama’s Afghan timeout vs. Mullen’s surge
• Afghan temp Surge: McChrystal malarkey hides incompetence of NATO, ISAF & US forces
• McChrystal right on India: Delhi must scale back Afghan operations
• “Taliban’s Winning Strategy in Afghanistan”: Overcoming “culture of poverty”

Several other very powerful people in the US do not share Gen. McChrystal when he is being overly optimistic.

Director of National Intelligence Dennis Blair, however, spouted a different opinion, saying the Taliban “has become increasingly dangerous and destabilizing,” and Defense Intelligence Agency Lieutenant General Ronald Burgess said U.S. troops face an “increasingly capable insurgency.”  Daily Beast.

So how do we assess the General statement if they are meant to be consumed by the enemy. What is the truth?

If today’s New York Times was reporting accurately, you should be very skeptical of anything that Afghan commander General Stanley McChrystal says. Not because he’s inherently dishonest, mind you, but because misleading everyone about the situation in Afghanistan may be part of his strategy for victory.

To be specific, today’s Times also contains an article with the headline “Top U.S. Commander Sees Progress in Afghanistan.” It quotes McChrystal as follows: “I am not prepared to say that we have turned the corner. So I’m saying the situation is serious, but I think we have made significant progress in setting the conditions in 2009, and beginning some progress, and that we’ll make real progress in 2010.”

This is nicely hedged, but McChrystal went to describe the war in a way that leads me to question virtually anything he might have to say now or in the future. According to the Times, the general also said that “The biggest thing is in convincing the Afghan people … This is all a war of perceptions. This is not a physical war in terms of how many people you kill or how much ground you capture, how many bridges you blow up. This is all in the minds of the participants” (my emphasis).

On the one hand this statement is something of a truism, in the sense that resolve, morale, and expectations about the future can be critical factors (though what is actually happening on the battlefield is hardly irrelevant). But McChrystal’s statement invites us to doubt anything he might choose to tell us about the progress of the war either now or in the months to come. Why? Because if he believes it is “all a war of perceptions,” then spinning the war in the most favorable possible light has to be part of his strategy, in order to try to persuade both Afghans and Americans that we are winning. And that means we can’t accept anything he says at face value, because we can’t know if he’s giving us an honest appraisal or just deploying a lot of blue smoke and mirrors in order to influence perceptions (which he thinks are key).

It is worth noting, by the way, that the Times published two articles that suggested that the U.S. effort in Afghanistan was not going particularly well. The first, by Ron Nordland, described the obstacles to our effort to train adequate Afghan police forces, and offered a gloomy assessment of progress-to-date. The second, which appeared in today’s paper (along with McChrystal’s somewhat upbeat account), described how the Afghan-Pakistan border remains incredibly porous, despite widespread awareness that this is a serious issue. I don’t know who is right here, but by his own account General McChrystal has somewhat greater incentive to play fast and loose. General McChrystal says we shouldn’t believe him. Foreign Policy
Posted By Stephen M. Walt Friday, February 5, 2010 – 1:16 PM

The news from Washington doesn’t come as a surprise to those who have analyzed the situation. Tick Tock Tick Tock-2011: Obama’s shrinking Afghan timeline.

The US occupation has not brought security to Afghan women. There are several factors which have led to the impasse in the White House.  AfPak countercurrents beyond the Oxus to AfPakAzUzbKazTurkKyr-istan. Some of them has been identified by Bob Woodward in his recent front page article in the Washington Post. Obama’s Afghan timeout vs. Mullen’s surge. There are several factions in the administration. One of them is the geostrategic reality that NATO doesn’t buy the Obama Doctrine. It seems that the “Exiters” seem to be winning. “Can Karzai get away with a stolen election”- Carter. Various Democrats seem to be warning Mr. Obama about the impending catastrophe. We are running the risk of replicating the fate of the Soviets” Mr. Brzezinski. Mr. Obama could have fallen into the routine acceptance for a request for more troops. He has resisted to repeat the historical mistakes of Vietnam. Justifying the Banality of Occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Thinktanks attempt to complete the circle of complicity between a sycophantic press, and a non-inquisitive servile public. The nation is forced to accept the only argument that it is being repeatedly inundated with. He has stepped back to ask a more basic question. Hindu Kush cul de sac: Why are we in Afghanistan? The main question is, whether President Obama have the courage to implement the real solutions to Obama’s Vietnam (AfPak). President Obama is planning an Exit strategy by negotiating with the “Taliban” (Pakhtuns). Can he go through with it? Trade First not Aid First

In a lopsided policy the US wasted $143 Billion in aid to Afghanistan and gave Pakistan $5 Billion. Egyptian loans of around $38 Billion were forgiven. Pakistani losses due to GWOT calculated by the US DOD were $20 Billion per year in 2001. These losses have quadrupled. Aid to Pakistan is less than aid to Afghanistan. This has to be balanced with need. The US uses Pakistani infrastructure to transport supplies without building or even maintaining the roads. An FTA and elimination of tariffs on Pakistani textiles would enable Pakistan to export $15 worth of textiles. Better than any aid package this would reverse extremism

General Stanley McChrystal’s malarkey on support for Taliban in Afghanistan exacerbates the fragile diplomatic situation in the Khyber and the Hindu Kush. Failure and Defeat in Afghanistan: Inevitable Frustration & misdirected Payback for ally Pakistan. His frustration and inability to take back 80% of the Afghanistan from the Taliban forces him to go and search for and create the atmosphere for bombing the “Ho Chi Minh trail”. Since he doesn’t have a Ho Chi Minh trail, General McChrystal has made one up–excuses for his failure to wrest control of the country from the Taliban and the 37 other insurgent groups that hold Afghanistan. Pakistan’s do more list for the USA