The Sunni Triangle in and around Faluja came to the realization that by stopping the fight against the Americans the occupation forces would leave. This was akin to the the Mujahideen giving the USSR forces a “safe exit” so that they could withdraw to the safety of the Caucus mountains. Can the militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan also come to the same realization.

The winner of the Nobel peace prize in Washington is in search for a victory–firstly in Kabul and then Washington. In 2012 he will face the US electorate, half of which supports his surge, and the other half supports his exit strategy. An overwhelming body of American oppose the war–as do the Europeans.

Let Obama win!

This is the best time to strike a bargain with the Americans. The entire world knows that ISAF, and NATO face total defeat in Afghanistan. Hence the surge in military troops. In 2001, the “Taliban” melted away and let the US think that they had won the battle and the war. “Mission Accomplished” let them celebrate the twin victories in Iraq and Afghanistan. Of course the Pakhtun knew that the US victory in Kabul was ephemeral. Their ancestors had done the same to the British. Lord Curzon had announced the expansion of the British Empire from “the Indus” to the “the Oxus”.  the British forces came and settled down in Kabul. A year later the Pakhtun came down, and wiped out the entire British presence in Afghanistan. One soldier was placed on an ass and sent back to “British India”. That picture is consecrated for history in a a famous painting, that we have also placed on our site. Perhaps our readers can find it. The image of the lone soldier carrying a message from the ferocious Pakhtuns was enough for Lord Curzon to change his policy and withdraw “back to the Indus”. 

The “Taliban” (a conglomeration of 38 insurgent groups) will face 30,000 more troops. They can certainly track the soldiers and where they will be stationed. They can then form their own surge and meet the Americans soldier to soldier. A high number of casualties and the possible dissolution of Mr. Karzai’s government may force the Americans to bring in more forces and extend the war by another decade. There is another option.

Let Obama win!

Let him justify his Nobel Peace prize. Give him a victory in Kabul, so that he can bring back the troops in a triumphant march through Washington DC—and then go on to win the US elections.

The Pakistanis and the Chinese are weighing in their options. If the war and the additional forces turn this into a war on Pakistan–then all bets are off. In that case, the US and NATO will face a bloody winter and a very bloody spring and summer. The Pakistanis have announced that they will work with the Americans, bot on the basis of mutual respect.

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan on Wednesday said it would closely engage with the United States in understanding the full import of its new strategy on Afghanistan and to ensure that there would be no adverse fallout on Pakistan.

There is certainly a need for clarity and coordination on all aspects of the implementation of this strategy,” the Foreign Office of Pakistan said in a statement issued here.

The statement said Pakistan and the United States need to closely coordinate their efforts to achieve shared objectives. The Foreign Office said that Pakistan has taken careful note of the important announcement by US President Barack Obama of the US – Afghanistan strategy.

“Pakistan is committed to uprooting terrorism from our region and in advancing the cause of peace and stability in Afghanistan,” it said.

Foreign Office said President Obama correctly mentioned that the struggle against violent extremism extends well beyond the region.

“We welcome President Obama’s reaffirmation of partnership between the two countries built on a foundation of mutual interest, mutual respect and mutual trust and also the United States’ strong support for Pakistan’s security and prosperity,” it said. 

After months of review, the Obama administration on Tuesday renewed its strategy for Afghanistan by sending 30,000 additional troops to the country in a decisive war against the al-Qaeda network and extremists. Pakistan to closely engage with US on new Afghan strategy (Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-12-02 21:51

The options for Pakistan are clear. It can support the war and reign in the Anti-US forces. If the US listens to Islamabad’s advice, it can bring about reconciliation between the warring factions. The choices for the Americans are also very clear. They can opt to continue to all the Bharatis (aka Indian) to wage war on Pakistan through proxies, or the American can halt the mercenaries from crossing the border into Pakistan.

If the American take a sane course of action–the militants in Afghanistan could possibly also think soberly. If the Bharati’s can realize thet their dream of “Akhand Bharat” and “Superpower status” and “links to Central Asia” were ephemeral dreams, and that the people of South Asia would be better served by paying attention to the penury stricken populations of this part of the world.

However all this is wishful thinking. The US is on “auto-pilot”– a huge tanker that cannot be turned on a dime, and incapable of making a “U-Turn”. The Bharatis like bloodhounds have smelt blood and will not stop their proxy war on Afghanistan (through mercenaries). They seem to have the perfect strategy of “plausible deniability” for all attacks on Pakistan—blame it on “Pakistani sponsored groups”. The “Taliban” and their allies also have smelt blood and they like the fact that they control 80% of Afghan territory. They control extends in the areas around the Pakhtun belt, but increasingly they have been attacking NATO supply lines near the Tajik and Uzbek border. The Uzbeks are with them. The IMU is not only fighting the dictatorship in Uzbekistan, it is also supporting the “Taliabn”. The Tajiks are fighting against their own tin-pot dictator and also fighting with the Taliban against the Americans. These groups will continue the war long after the children of the current American soldiers have gone home.

The surge will peak in the next 18 months. This gives some breathing room to all sides to rethink the war in the Hindu Kush. The foreigners will leave Afghanistan–they always have. A section of the Mehsuds will calm down–they always have. The inter-fighting between the tribes will end–it always has. The 40 million Pakistani Pakhtuns will overwhelm the 15 million Afghan Pakhtuns (most of the Afghan Pakhtuns were born in Pakistan)–they always have. The end of occupation will continue to bring Afghanistan and Pakistan together. The end of occupation will mean the end of Bharati influence in Kabul. The Bhartis will be sent home packing–just like they were sent packing with Babrak Karmal left Kabul on top of withdrawing Russian tanks

“The U.S. is seen as an occupier in Afghanistan, and there’s no way that can be turned around,” said Pervez Hoodbhoy, a nuclear physicist and defense analyst in Islamabad. He said that a Taliban victory in Afghanistan would be “terrible for Pakistan,” but that the United States had created the problem and must “clean up the mess before it leaves.”

On the other side of the border, some Afghans place blame on Pakistan, saying that unless its military and intelligence services show more willingness to confront the Afghan Taliban and deny them sanctuary in the tribal regions of Pakistan, the U.S. military will face an impossible task in Afghanistan.

“Unless we really solve the challenge and the issue of Pakistan, I think you can bring in 50,000 more soldiers, 100,000 more soldiers, but in my view we will still have this problem,” said Hikmet Karzai, director of the Center for Conflict and Peace Studies in Kabul. Unless Afghans and Pakistanis sit down and discuss the issues, he said, “I think we’re going to be in this mess for a very long time.”

Afghans raised their own concerns about the troop buildup. After eight years of war, many are deeply skeptical that any amount of U.S. forces can make Afghanistan safer. Some said the surge in troops could deepen the perception that the Americans are occupiers propping up a corrupt government, led by President Hamid Karzai, who has just begun a second five-year term after a fraud-plagued election.

“If the number of troops increases, insecurity and fighting will increase, more people will be backing the insurgents, more people will die,” said Gul Mohammad, a retiree in Kabul. “If they leave, it would be better. Our Islamic territory will be calm, and the fighting will be over.”

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