Tick Tock Tick Tock-2011: Obama’s shrinking Afghan timeline 
Flanked by Admiral Mullen and in front of the great seal of America President Obama spoke from Westpoint. He started with the reasons for going to war in Afghanistan. He mentioned the world approbation 98-0, 420-1. NATO invoked article five. The UN security allowed all necessary steps to defeat the attackers of 911.He also told them that the war in Iraq is coming to an end next summer. He mentioned “safe havens” in Pakistan. Taliban has increasingly taken large swathes of territory while Deconstructing defeating and destroying the Taliban.
- Delhi’s worst nightmare: A “Taliban” (Pakhtun) government in Kabul
- NRO-Ehtisab Bureau: Hussain Haqqani had criminal cases quashed, FIR dropped
- Obama’s new Grand bargain: More aid, intelligence cooperation & a few threats
- Obama pulls a “Bush” on Afghanistan—More war
“Afghanistan is not lost, but it has moved backward”. “There is no imminent threat to the government of Afghanistan, but” it is in danger. “General McChrystal has reported that the security situation is more serious than he had anticipated” so he said he is “sending 30,000 troops for 18 months“. Then he said “the troops will begin coming back home”.
With the bluster one has to analyze his words and his actions. Pakistan and Afghanistan is the”Epicenter of violent extremism”. “London, Amman and Bali” have been attacked by Al-Qaeda. The “extremists seek nuclear weapons and will use them”.
Obama’s Afghan timeout vs. Mullen’s surge 
Afghan Surge: McChrystal malarkey hides incompetence of NATO, ISAF & US forces 
McChrystal right on India: Delhi must scale back Afghan operations
“Taliban’s Winning Strategy in Afghanistan”: Overcoming “culture of poverty”
Our goal is to “deny Al-Qaeda a safe havens in their safe havens” (a not so oblique reference to Pakistani FATA), deny Al-Qaeda the ability to overthrow the government in Kabul, support and strengthen the Afghan government. The 30,000 will secure the population centers. Train the Afghans.
“Just like we have done in Iraq, we will responsibly draw down the war in Iraq“. President Karzai said the right things in his inauguration. The corrupt need to be accountable. He also talked about expanding the Kabul government. He said that the Taliban who abandon violence and respect human right would be included in the new government. Hasten the day when the forces will leave.
Hindu Kush cul de sac: Why are we in Afghanistan?
Obama’s Exit strategy: Negotiating with the “Taliban” (Pakhtuns)
Fixing AfPak expedites the inevitable union between Pakistan and AfghanistanIndia’s worst nightmares come true: Long term strategic malaise
We will act that the full recognition that success in Afghanistan is dependent on a partnership with Pakistan. We need a strategy to work on both sides of the border.
The Pakistani army has waged an offensive in Swat and Waziristan. In the past we defined our relationship with Pakistan on narrow objectives. We will strengthen on Pakistan “long after the guns fall silent”. President Obama than bragged about being the largest international supporter for Pakistani displaced people.
He tried to rebut the accusation that Afghanistan is not another Vietnam–cutting losses. Unlike Vietnam the Taliban do not have broad based support. Unlike Vietnam we were not attacked.
He discussed the opposition to the war and those who challenged his “temporary surge”. He said those who want the current state to continue will be facing a slow deterioration of the situation on the ground.
Will NATO buy the Obama Doctrine? What’s in between the lines?
Does Obama have the courage to implement the real solutions to Obama’s Vietnam (AfPak)
He objected to who who support a decade long nation building project in Afghanistan. Absence of a timeline destroys the goals—”America has no interest in nation building”. President Obama recognized the limitations of America. He said that he recognized what American can “achieve at a reasonable cost”. This places parameters around what the US military can or cannot do.
Lastly he touched about the economic costs of the war. We cannot afford these wars. He said that the two wars cost America $1 Trillion Dollars and this surge would cost $30 Billion. “We must build prosperity at home”. He said prosperity at home builds American power and the ability to have troops. He implied that lack of prosperity at home diminishes US power. Counter-insurgency is what General McChrystal wanted. He got a counter-terror war in Afghanistan.
Here is another version of reality–this one from the President of Pakistan, who knew what was going on.
The political instability and ethnic imbalance in Afghanistan after 9/11 marginalized the majority Pashtuns and pushed them into the Taliban fold, even though they were not ideological supporters of the Taliban. The blunder of inducting 80,000 troops of Tajiks into the Afghan national army further alienated the Pashtuns.
Meanwhile, Pakistan forcefully tackled the influx of al Qaeda into our tribal areas, capturing over 600 al Qaeda and Afghan Taliban leaders, some of them of very high value. We established 1,000 border checkposts and even offered to mine or fence off the Afghanistan-Pakistan border, but this never came to pass. The Afghan government, led by President Hamid Karzai, had no writ outside of Kabul, and the insufficient ground troops of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) allowed the Taliban to regroup. The 2004 invasion of Iraq shifted the focus and also contributed to the Taliban gaining ground in Afghanistan.
Al Qaeda terrorists who fled from Afghanistan came to Pakistan and settled initially in South Waziristan. Through successful intelligence and law-enforcement operations, we eliminated al Qaeda from our cities and destroyed their command, communication and propaganda centers. They fled to the adjoining North Waziristan, Bajur and Swat regions. President Pervez Musharraf–Wall Street Journal
The chorus of criticism against the war in Afghanistan is bound to grow. A plurality of the American public opposes the war in Afghanistan. If concrete progress is not seen on the ground in the Hindukush, the people of America may not support a perpetual war in West Asia. Why the US gave up India as a Strategic partner?
Without China’s help, the USA cannot sustain the bailouts or hope for a recovery. China is willing to give the US a reprieve, but may have a couple of strings attached. China will exact a price. It seems that Beijing at this point will require a pullout from Afghanistan and the resolution of Kashmir. We have always considered Kashmir as the silent “K” in Holbrooke’s mission. India’s worst nightmares come true: Long term strategic malaise in a changing world . The People’s Daily leaves no doubt that the resolution of Kashmir is not simply a “nice to have” on the “wish list” of Mr. Holbrooke–it a mandated requirement-China’s pound of flesh for agreeing to buy American T-Bonds. India feels the pain: The US begs Beijing for money
For years we have shed light on the pull and push theory. Can the $80 Billion Think Tank industry not comprehend the simple truths described by Peter Senge in his seminal book “The 5th Discipline“. They theory goes as follows. When the Police cracks down on drug dealers on 42nd street, the drug dealing does not disappear, it simply moved to 52nd street or gets dispersed over a bigger area out of reach of the police raids. Similarly when the US bombs the insurgents in East Afghanistan, it is but obvious that they will find shelter and hideouts on the Duran Line and beyond. As the US drones bomb FATA, areas in Pakistan are affected destabilizing parts of the NWFP.
Obama advisor Weinbaum predicted total Afghan policy review: Sees focus on talks & Reconciliation. This has now been resurrected. Now that the arduous route from Russia and Uzbekistan will supply non-military supplies to Kabul obviously the pull and push theory will come into effect and push the war into Uzbekistan. Already Islam Karimov is under severe pressure from the IMU. He is hanging by a thread. Blaming Pakistan won’t help the war on terror. If you continue to kill Pakistanis, the nation cannot support the US war in Afghanistan. Pakistan Assembly: War not in its interest-Want it stopped!
The Ferghana Valley, now is Uzbekistan has many links to the South Asian Subcontinent. Zahiruddin Babur, the founder of the Mughal Empire was born in Ferghana and lies buried in Kabul. US supplies to Afghanistan in jeopardy.
The international players involved in the region are supporting the regions fragile stability but may face a backlash akin to the Iranian revolution. The current American policy focuses on drawing the Central Asian countries into its sphere of influence. It is looking at stabilizing Afghanistan, pacifying Pakistan and neutralizing Iran. As the US nears a peace deal in Afghanistan it surely rankles Indian feathers in Delhi. Any movement towards peace is seen with suspicion by the pundits of the Ganges.
The world is reaping the harvest of the horrendous mistakes committed by the Bush Administration. Terrorism is not indigenous to Pakistan. It is the direct consequence of American invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and American Drone attacks in FATA. The world will continue to reap the harvest of the seeds of murder and assassination sown by President Obama’s adjutants. Its not just Mr. Barack Obama, there are about half a dozen special envoys to Pakistan and Afghanistan, the US has one, Canada has one, the UK has one, France has one, and to top it all even Italy has a special envoy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. All clones who echo his master’s voice Half a dozen Forest Gump envoys with an IQ of 4. Afghanistan: Truth not Orwellian propaganda
Afghanistan fiasco: Cleaning up the Am-Brit failures in Kabul again 
Solutions to “Obama’s Vietnam”–AfPak
He said he saw an enduring war beyond Pakistan and Afghanistan–in Yemen and Somalia. “We will have to deal with Failed States”. The end of the speech was peppered with motherhood and apple pie.
The pathological indecisiveness of the successive US Administration’s Afghan policy is depicted by a blind man in a dark room looking for a black cat which isn’t there. It is pedagogical to note that after a dozen reviews by every imaginable intelligence and non-intelligence agency in the world, the CIA, the NSA, the NIE and dozens of so-called think tanks, all they could come up with is perpetuation of Bush’s policy. The Bush Administration went into Kabul ostensibly to capture and collect Osama Bin Laden. That name is totally absent from the American political vernacular. What’s the goal now? No one knows. …and we are supposed to believe the CIA now?
The speech was an admission of American defeat in Afghanistan. The militants will respond with their own surge and monitor where the new troops are going. The surge will take six months to get the troops there–just after the Spring offensive of the Taliban. The new troops will challenge the Spring offensive and then begin targeting the areas in which the Taliban are well entrenched–in Helmund, in Paktia, and all along the Pakistani border.
Rand report: End GWOT. Defeat Al-Qaeda with police & Dollars 
Hindu Kush Curtain Call: The End Game in Afghanistan
President Obama did not mention a regional approach. Nor did he mention Kashmir as the root cause of problems. He did not threaten Pakistan. He did not mention Bharat (aka India).
Mullah Omar is probably smiling right now–victory in his sight.
Mr. Bruce Riedel in his book clearly said that he wanted to convince the Pakistanis into fighting the Taliban. A few dozen explosions disguised as “suicide bombings”, a few videos, and an incessant campaign of paranoid hysteria of “Barbarians-at-the-gate”, and purchase of the 5th column media goaded Mr. Zardari into doing the dirty work of the Americans. There is a larger dimension to this. End of US Exceptionalism & Crisis of Profilgacy: An exit strategy defines the limits of US power in the Hindukush.
The Pakistani perspective: Peace deals only way to precipitate face saving for US & Obama’s smooth Exit strategy from Afghanistan
The inevitable is here.
This may be 411 (information) for some, but it was obvious to the serious analyst.
Carrying the White Man’s Burden mush be hard for President Obama. Rudyard Kipling must be turning in his grave. Many White men have tried and failed. Its not an easy burden to carry. The byline to the bluster is the frustration of a country bankrupted by the never-ending wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Even the mighty USA cannot afford to spend $3 Trillion (not $1 Trillion as claimed by Mr. Obama) on wars. Lord Curzon of the mighty British Empire gave up on it after the defeat at the battle of Maiwand. Uneasy is the head that wears the crown presiding over the worst defeat of US and NATO forces since Vietnam. Defeat is a hard burden to carry. Countdown to 2011 is a difficult countdown. Tick Tock Tick Tock: Obama’s shrinking Afghan timeline-2011.
Reversing Anti-Americanism in South Asia: Building bridges with Pakistan. The American people are sick and tired of wars. They want peace. Listing the reasons for the perpetual mimetic war would force us to delve into an arcane expression from the cold war–”The Military Industrial Complex” run by Haliburton, Bechtel and others. The ordinary American has seen through the fog of fear mongering and bigotry. It will not put up with torture and lies.
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