In one of the best news stories out of Islambad a seminal event has happened. Mr. Zardari who believes that India is not an enemy, and who during a press conference without consultation with the Majlis e Shura (National Assembly) and Qiwan e Bala (Senate) or any discussion with the army or the National Security Council had proposed a new doctrine for the use of Pakistani nukes. This had aroused serious suspicious in Pakistan. The recent stories by Sy Hersh in the New Yorker further raised eyebrows in Pakistan. Most people in Pakistan do not trust Mr. Asif Zardari. He is the most reviled politician in Pakistan. His ascendency to the presidency is hated by old stalwarts in the PPPP. Mr. Zardari bypassed some of the founding members of the party like Makhdoom Amin Fahim and Aitizaz Ahsan.
One of the first actionns of Mr. Zardari’s new presidency was to visit the Nuclear Command and Control facilities. He wanted a detailed disposition of what, where, when and how. One the first day, Ms. Sherry Rehman was with him. The Army officer politley asked her to say out becuase she did not have the security clearance. She insisted but was not allowed inside. On the second day, the Major was removed and Mr. Sherry Rehamn strode in with Mr. Zardari. It was issues like these that led to the downfall of Mr. Zardaari.
President Zardari is a man of consensus building which in sleazy politics translates to appeasement. Instead of telling others “to butt out of Pakistan’s internal affairs–thank you very much“, Mr. Zardari asked the chairman of the National Assembly’s standing committee on defense, Ms. Azra Fazal Pechuho to try to address the so called concerns of international. Of course the “concerns” are actually excuses to take over the Pakistani nukes. Ms. Pechuho was forced to rush a report of her 17-member committee into the Majlis e Shura (Nationa Assembly). On November 11 Mr. Zardari tried to show people that he was in charge. He tried to structure the immediate legal endorsement to the Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) ordinance of 2007, which sets out a multi-layered structure for the control of the nuclear arsenal. None of this worked. Mr. Zardari’s masters continued to ask “for more”, and his detractors saw this is window dressing.
Although analysts did not expect the move to harm Pakistan’s nuclear security, political stability in the country is critical for the Obama administration, which is set to announce its new strategy for Afghanistan this week. Pakistan is a central part of that strategy, and the country has been under tremendous pressure by the administration to step up its fight against militants from the Taliban and Al Qaeda, with two top American security officials visiting Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, in two weeks.
Until his latest move, Mr. Zardari held the top civilian position in the organization known as the National Command Authority, which controls every aspect of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal — decisions to move or launch any of its 60 to 100 nuclear weapons, to expand the country’s nuclear stockpile and to oversee the security of the weapons and nuclear laboratories.
Pakistan’s previous president, Pervez Musharraf, was an army general, and Mr. Zardari’s position was supposed to signal civilian control of the country’s nuclear assets. But in reality, it is Pakistan’s powerful military that exerts control over the country’s nuclear arsenal, and Pakistani observers noted Saturday that the handover to Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani had no practical effect on the hierarchy.
For Pakistan the Nuclear Arsenal is a matter of life and death. It is not an item of prestige. It literally is the reason why Bharat (aka India) does not take over the country–in the name of stability. The intelligence services were surprised to find out that Sy Hersh has inside knowledge of American plans. They forced Mr. out of the sensitive areas and stripped him of his nuclear command authority.
According Ms. Pechuho’s report, the president (Mr. Zardari) would be chairman of the authority and the Prime Minister (Yusuf Gilani) would be the deputy chairman. Other key members would be the ministers for Foreign Affairs, Defense, Finance and Interior. The key member would be the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, three services chiefs (Army, Navy, Air Force) and the DG (Director General) of the Strategic Planning Division.
The Army and the National Assembly would have none of this. Mr. Zardari was removed from the Command and Control structure and the Prime Minister was made the head. Mr. Zardari now has no role in it.
“Nothing changes except that Zardari has removed one possible irritant with nuclear hawks,” said a Pakistani official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak about nuclear issues.
The military establishment dislikes Mr. Zardari and has an acrimonious history with his party, the Pakistan People’s Party. A senior party member said the hope was that the move would bolster Mr. Zardari’s democratic credentials and help restore a strong-Parliament system that had been disrupted under Mr. Musharraf’s rule.
Most Pakistani analysts believe that this is just a first step in the clipping of the feathers of Mr. Zardari. Mr. Zardari announced last week that he would return the residuary powers known as the 17th Amendment and 58-2(b), to the Prime Minister. This would return Pakistan to parliamentary democracy.
Some here argue the military wants it to stay that way. It protested vociferously when the Obama administration, which has said it wants to support democratic institutions here, extended a large civilian aid package to Pakistan this fall, the first in the history of the two countries.
The move seemed to say more about Pakistani politics and Mr. Zardari’s attempts to survive as president than about the country’s nuclear arsenal. Mr. Zardari is at his most vulnerable since taking office and is looking for ways to appease his critics.
But many political analysts say he will not survive if he does not address the opposition’s main criticism: that he has yet to give up the sweeping powers he inherited from Mr. Musharraf, like the right to dismiss elected governments, unusual in a parliamentary system like Pakistan’s.
Friday’s move did nothing to relinquish those powers, and as a result was largely ignored in the Pakistani news media. But the senior party member said Mr. Zardari would start giving up those powers in a process that would begin next month. It was not clear on Saturday whether handing control to Mr. Gilani would have any effect in terms of blunting criticism.
Mr. Gilani is a mild-mannered politician from Pakistan’s most populous province, Punjab. He is a member of Mr. Zardari’s party but is believed to be more palatable to the country’s powerful military establishment. Most Pakistani analysts rule out a military coup, but the news media have been talking for months about a “minus one” scenario, under which Mr. Zardari would step down and another member of his party would assume the presidency. Mr. Zardari’s supporters say that is unlikely.
The opposition leader, Nawaz Sharif, is also a crucial figure, whose support could allow Mr. Zardari to remain in power. His party has repeatedly called for a repeal of the Musharraf-era powers, and Mr. Zardari’s delays in doing so could turn Mr. Sharif against him, making Mr. Zardari’s resignation all but inevitable.
From the start of Mr. Zardari’s term, American officials have worked hard to cultivate alternate contacts within Pakistan — including Mr. Sharif and Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, the chief of the military — tacitly acknowledging the complex and volatile nature of the country’s politics.
In practice, it is the military that has always controlled most of the nuclear decisions in the country. The top officers dominate the National Command Authority and its major decisions. Many of the day-to-day operations, including those most of concern in Washington, concerning nuclear security, are made in a small compound near the Islamabad airport by the Special Plans Division, run by Gen. Kahlid Kidwai.
General Kidwai was appointed to his position by Mr. Musharraf, who took control of the country in a coup in 1999 and resigned, under pressure, more than a year ago. Together the two men established much of the country’s nuclear infrastructure, and it was telling that General Kidwai remained in place after Mr. Zardari took office as the country’s elected president. It also suggested that, save for the names on an organization chart, little changed in practice.
While the US frets over every nuance in Pakistan, there is a huge sea of Anti-Americanism in Pakistan–brought on by the Drone attacks with continue unabated on a daily basis. The civilian deaths caused by the drone attack cause a 911 everytime there is a drone attack.
Of all the institutions in Pakistan, none is of more importance to the Obama administration than the National Command Authority. But it is also the linchpin of the continuing distrust between Washington and Islamabad.
For years during the Bush administration, the United States paid more than $100 million to Pakistan to help it secure its nuclear weapons. But American officials never knew exactly how much of the money was spent: Pakistan did not want the United States to know much about its weapons or where they were located, for fear that in times of chaos the Americans would seek to seize the weapons rather than allow them to fall into the hands of terrorists. Pakistan’s Leader, Under Pressure, Cedes Nuclear Office By SABRINA TAVERNISE and DAVID E. SANGER Published: November 28, 2009. Sabrina Tavernise reported from Islambad, and David E. Sanger from New York. Sahar Habib Ghazi contributed reporting from Islamabad, and Richard A. Oppel Jr. from New York.
