The Indian Iranian relations have gone down from they heyday when Iranian President Seyyed Mohammed Khatami’s five-day India visit went to India in Juanuary 24th 2003 to celebrate Bharat’s republic Day. At the time there were huge expectations on both sides to develop an Indo-Iranian axis against all powers in the area. There was euphoria in the Bharati media about a “new era” and alliances with Iran and all sorts of other nonsense.
…Iran coming close to India in political, economic, strategic, energy and defence spheres.
Mr Khatami has conveyed a powerful diplomatic symbolism by agreeing to become the chief guest at this year’s Republic Day parade, something which no Iranian leader has done in the past. Besides, Mr Khatami also becomes the first leader from the Gulf region to be the chief guest at Republic Day’s parade.
Mr Khatami’s visit is going to mark a watershed in the Indo-Iran relations and several agreements in different fields are expected to be signed. The significance Iran is attaching to India is reflected by the fact that Mr Khatami’s high-level delegation includes Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi, Defence Minister Ali Shamkhani, Science and Technology Minister Mostfa Moeen, and Oil Minister Bijan Zangneh. Mr Khatami had recently visited Pakistan and his delegation had included the Defence Minister as well but that visit yielded nothing substantive. Mr Khatami’s Islamabad visit was more of a balancing act on part of Iran. Indian Tribune
The above story was part of the hoopla surrounding the visit. A lot of water had gone down the Indus, and none of the objectives of Mr. Khatami’s trip have materialized. Mr. Vajpayee of the BJP is no longer the Prime Minister of Bharat, Mr. Manmohan Singh a Sonia protegy is. Mr. Khatami is no longer the president of Iran, Mr. Ahmedinijad is. He served as the fifth President of Iran from August 2, 1997 to August 3, 2005. Things have dramatically changed since 2005.
Bharat’s relations with Iran grew out of a marriage of necessity during the mid-1990s, when they cooperated in a losing battle against the Taliban. At the time, the US and Pakistan alliance thwarted the Indo-Iranian ideas on how Afghanistan should be shaped. Bharat, Iran and Russia supported the defeated war lords of the Northern Alliance. This was part of the Iranian blunders that created a reason for America to return to the region. The Northern Alliance severed all their links to Iran and wholeheartedly joined the US invasion. America used the Northern Alliance leaders like Abdullah and Dostum and them dumped them. Abdullah is now an oppostion leader and Dostum spent years in exile.
Delhi has maintained some relations with the Northern Alliance, much to the chagrin of the Pakhtuns who see these relations with fear, suspicion and disgust. Iranian influences in Afghanistan are now pretty much sequestered to the Persian speaking Western areas and Herat adjoining Iran.
The so called ”success” in the recent summit was based on obsolete ideas thought of a decade ago. Stephen Cohen one of the most ardent Indophiles recently stated that the US and India have no strategic congruency and are drifting apart. Ironically, it is India’s relations with the US that are the biggest impediment to growth Indo-Iranain relations. There is nothing to indicate a change for the better in Delhi’s ties with Tehran.
Bharat has kowtowed to the US, and is scared of antagonizing Washington in anyway–even at the expense of its own interests. Bharat is energy deficient, and needs gas and oil on its shores. However because of American objections it has not signed on the IPI pipeline which is now being built without Delhi’s participation.
The Bharati-Iranian relations ran into choppy waters in 2005-06, when Delhi voted twice against Iran at the IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency. Bharat had succumbed to US pressure and stabbed Iran in the back.
Space cooperation could have been a area of mutual profit. However Bharat launched an Iran-specific Israeli satellite for Israel and is now refusing to launch a satellite for Iran. This has seriously soured the relationship.
“We don’t plan to give them a response,” the BBC quoted a top Indian officials.
“India does not want to get entangled in Iran’s problems over its nuclear and missile programs; hence its reluctance to launch satellites that could assist its missile capability,” The Minstry of External Affairs.
The launch of the Israeli satellite from Sriharikota space station in southern India was heralded in Israel as a great leap forward between the Tehran and Tel Aviv.
In retaliation for the satellite launch, and the IAEA vote Iran cancelled a5 million ton multi-billion Dollar LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) gas export deal (signed in 2002) to Bharat. That deal has never been resurrected. The current Mottaki’s visit and discussion with India’s Foreign Minister Somanahalli Mallaiah Krishna were unable to revive the deal.
On the IPI pipeline, the US opposed the deal and Delhi has been less than forthcoming. Disgusted with the delays, Iran and Pakistan signed the IP agreement on the pipeline and asked China to join in the venture. The IPI is fast becoming the IPC. Delhi has lost an opportunity, because, the deal is pretty much dead. If Bharat wants to join the venture at a later stage, ever, a new pipeline will have to be laid across Pakistan.
The discussions on transit routes through Iran (Chahbahar) and Afghanistan to Central Asia have also been stymied by the fact that the roads built in Afghanistan have already been taken over the insurgents and are not really navigable. The Pakhtuns rule the roads. Their entrenched network of transportation from Karachi to Peshawar is threatened by the Iranain and Bharati venture, and they see it as a threat to their economic interests. Delhi is so far removed from the reality of Afghanistan that it makes decision based on maps and what may feel good. Karachi is the biggest Pakhtun city in the world. They own the transportation in Karachi and pretty much in Pakistan. The Pakshtuns are also in charge of the complex smuggling network that takes goods to Kabul and then sells in back in Pakistan. This elaborate scheme is hard for many to comprehend, but it is a fact of life for landlocked Afghanistan and the Pakistani ports. The Pakhtuns don’t want to abandon their profits so that the Persians can begin playing in their turf. The Pakhtuns have not shown any interest in joining the new supply chain which would avoid their regional hubs in Karachi, Peshawar and Kabul.
The much heralded Zaranj-Delaram highway is in disrepair with many of bridges blown up. The 218 km highway has been the most advertised highway on the planet, with Delhi using more than 4000 laborers and soldiers to link the Afghan link road to the transit route to Chahbahar. Strategically, the short patch of road has no significance at al. If it had been important the Russians or the British would have connected the dots. Bharat has been talks with Iran to link up Chahbhar to Fahraj by rail. There is no rail system in Afghanistan. A new rail system has been the talk of town for centuries. Rails don’t work in Afghanistan, becuase they are routinely attacked as they pass through war lord country. A slight miscalculation, and the war lord will attack the train and seek revenge.
Bharat’s has grand designs to reach Central Asia by land. Here it runs into conflict with the Iranians themselves, who want to exert influence in Central Asia. They are weary of Delhi’s “near abroad” ambitions in Central Asia.
Both the Iranians and the Bhartis oppose the “Taliban” (read Pakhtuns) in Afghanistan. This places both of them in a collision course with history. The reality is that more than 80% of Afghanistan is in Taliban hands. No amount of surge or Indo-Iranain machinations can change that reality. A fatigued NATO, tired ISAF, war-wary US and disgusted UK now wants an exit strategy in Afghanistan–the only way out is to talk to the Pakhtuns and listen to Pakistan. neither the Iranians, nor the Indians can deliver in Afghanistan, the Pakistanis can. These truths are now self evident to the Americans and the British.
As the US reaches out to ”good Taliban” and make peace with the “moderate Taliban”, those who oppose the Pakhtuns will be left out in the cold. As much as Delhi and Tehran co-ordinate efforts towards shaping an Anti-Taliban strategy in Afghanistan–it is not significant to the reality of the Hindu Kush. The possibility of a Indo-Iranian common strategy is hampered by the foreign policy differences between Bharat and Iran. Bharat is pro-India and pro-Israel. Iran is anti-US and against Israel. These factors create different objectives for both capitals. Bharat wants the US forces to stay in Afghanistan–so that it can use the space to pressure Pakistan. The presence of US forces in Kabul allowed Delhi to return to Kabul, after an absence of a decade.
These is an important difference in their positions on Afghanistan hampre the creation of a joint strategy. Bharat worries that once the US leaves Afghanistan, it will have 24 hours to pack its consulates and return to the land of the Ganges. This reminds them of their hasty evacuation after the puppet regime of Babrak Karmal fell and the Russian left Afghanistan.
There is a huge blame game that is being played, Bharatis blame Iran for refusing to respect signed agreements and perpetual renegotiating of terms. However the fail to see the reality that Iran and Pakistan have a signed deal on the pipeline. November 21st, 2009. Moin Ansari. Rupee News exclusive
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