The mismanagement of the AL-led regime is becoming as unruly like sliding potatoes from a derailed carriage. And, nowhere this drawback is as starkly evident as are in the fields of national defence and geopolitics.

The governments of India and Bangladesh are pursuing a strategy rather aggressively to connect Indian Northeast with the mainland via Bangladesh, without any profound thoughts having been accorded to the likely ramifications of such moves on our vital national interests.

Bangladesh was created in the name of Bengali nationalism. However the Hindu Bengalis who had opposed the parition of Bengal in 1906 opposed and did not join Muslim Bangladesh as Bengalis. On August 14th, 1975 Bangladeshi nationalists buried the secularism deep into the Bay of Bengal. Today Bangladesh faces new threats from India again. . After failing to take over Bangladesh on Dec 6th 1971, India is forcing a transit policy on defenseless Bangladesh that is fighting for her existence. The Transit facilites that Bharat is asking would clog existing Bangladeshi roads and pose a security threat to Bangladesh. It would also exacerbate the situation in Northeast "India" where the sevean Assamese states want freedom from Delhi. The Transit agreement poses a mortal threat to Bangladesh

In delving matters as serious as these, one must be candid. Fact is: Bangladesh has no interest in siding militarily with either of the global or regional protagonists at a time when our fundamental preoccupation should be the consolidation of national sovereignty as an upcoming nation of 150 million strong. Yet, when China and India are found to be preparing to lock horns in a military showdown which could end up with nuclear exchanges between the two military giants, Dhaka and Delhi are busy in paving ways for movement of Indian goods and merchandises to the troubled northeast via Bangladesh.

Bharat Occupies Zang Nan (Southern Tibet) and calls it Arunchal Pradesh. This area is a constant source of tension between China and India. Bharat has been unable to resolve this dispute. This places Bangladesh in the center of the Indo-China rivalry. Recent moves by the Awami League has moved Bangaldesh towards Bharat--this underminses the vital interests of Bangladesh

Many say that purported economic posturing is a mere fa?ade and the exterior of a menacing syndrome which has much to do with Indian military preparedness against China and, Delhi’s desperate quest to emerge as a military super power. That is why the Bangladesh – India borders are being turned as staging posts and conduits for conveying military hardware and forces from mainland India to the troubled seven sisters, something that could trigger economic and military reprisals against Bangladesh from China and its regional allies.

There are signs that it could also provoke revenge attacks from the North Eastern insurgents fighting for decades to liberate themselves from Delhi’s tutelage.

That being the raw reality, so to speak, it comes as a surprise that, the grand connectivity scheme included in the proposed Asian highway aside, a cobweb of other connectivity dots are being hastily joined together at the strategic spots of the nation’s mutual borders. These hasty moves have much to do with military preparation of India and the US against China and Myanmar, than with economic interest of Bangladesh, as is being touted.

Why Tripura?

Bangladesh: Patriotic Revolution against Indian agent Mujib Ur Rehman 14th August 1975: Soon after stepping on the soil of the independent country Awami League came out with the ambiguous slogan of “Mujibbad”. After three and half years when “Mujibbad” was proven to be an empty slogan Sheikh Mujibur Rahman like any other power hungry dictator promulgated 4th amendment and took all powers in his own hand by forming one party autocratic regime of BKSAL. This unprecedented constitutional coup de’ tat was called his ‘Second Revolution’. As he usurped absolute power apparently things for a while looked calm on the surface but beneath that uneasy calm political and social conditions were fast deteriorating. AWAMI-BAKSAL period is the dark chapter in the history of Bangladesh. Volumes would not be enough to write the full history. On Jan. 25, 1975 with a stroke of pen Sheikh Mujibur Rahman killed democracy and imposed on the nation the yoke of one party rule of BAKSAL. He snatched away from the people freedom of press, freedom of expression, fundamental rights along with all political rights. All national dailies and periodicals were banned except 4 government-controlled dailies. Constitutional rights of the judiciary were also high jacked and was brought under the administrative control. Rule of law thus was buried. AWAMI-BAKSAL period is the dark chapter in the history of Bangladesh. Volumes would not be enough to write the full history. On Jan. 25, 1975 with a stroke of pen Sheikh Mujibur Rahman killed democracy and imposed on the nation the yoke of one party rule of BAKSAL. He snatched away from the people freedom of press, freedom of expression, fundamental rights along with all political rights. All national dailies and periodicals were banned except 4 government-controlled dailies. Constitutional rights of the judiciary were also high jacked and was brought under the administrative control. Rule of law thus was buried.

On October 5, concerned ministers and officials from Tripura and Bangladesh inaugurated a new land custom station at Feni-Belonia border while, within months, at least eight such custom stations are slated to be built along the 856 km. long, largely natural- barrier-free Tripura- Bangladesh border, according to a reliable source.

Although four of the northeastern states-Assam, Tripura, Meghalaya and Mizoram – share about 1,879 km border with Bangladesh, the extra priority being accorded to Tripura is for reasons which are purely geopolitical. Besides having accessible borders with Bangladesh, Myanmar-China lines of communication can be choked off from stronger military presence in Tripura alone.

The source says the other mapped out destinations of Bangladesh for uses as conduits for India’s military manoeuvres are: Agartala-Dhaka (150 km); Kailashahr-Sylhet (90 km); Sabroom-Chittagong (75 km); Sonamura-Comilla (25 km).

Greater Brihot Bangladesh Plassey to Muslim Bengal to Bangistan to Bangladesh to Brihot Bangal

13th Century Bengal under Balban Greater Brihot Bangladesh is inevitable!

Meanwhile, the Akhaurah land port, only 150 km east of Dhaka and just 5 km west of Tripura capital Agartala, has already been inaugurated as a common border port and is being geared as a major launching pad for trade, and, for troop manoeuvring between mainland India and Tripura via Bangladesh, when needed.

One of the other main undertakings in this grand strategy is to connect Agartala and Kolkata via Bangladesh to reduce over 1500 km distance between the two Indian cities into over 330 km, and, to connect Tripura’s Sabroom with Chittagong port.

While the regime in Dhaka may either be ignorant of the consequences of these acts, or is beholden to foreign powers, the message from one of the secessionist leaders of India’s Northeast could not be prompter and clearer.

Bodoland wants independence from India

Bodoland doesn't want to be part of India. The four districts of Bodoland- Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa and Udalguri runs all along the borders of the Bhutan Himalayan foothills. This green area with unmatched biodiversity is a part of Dooars (Duars), which is a continuous stretch of forests both in West Bengal and Assam. Quoting a historical document, ‘Duars, a narrow tract of country extending along the foot of the lower range of the Himalayan mountains that separated British territory from Bhutan proper, rapidly wore down the goodwill established between the two countries by 18 century British trading mission. These developments led to the Duar War of 1864, during which the British forcibly annexed the eighteen Duars.’ Demand for a Homeland, called Bodoland. The early history of Bodos is largely unknown. By definition, Bodos do not display tribalistic culture or rituals in that they do not live in caves or jungles or go hunting wild animals. For centuries majority Bodos remained as farmers, cultivators, and peace loving society. Like many cultures in the world today, Bodos are also ethnocentric or nationalist society. Cultural assimilation with Assamese was not productive. In brief, before the British Raj, Bodo-kachari Kingdom may have included a vast area extending far and beyond Assam, a small province in the North-East India. History suggest that Dimapur was the capital of Bodo-Kachari kingdom (Dimasa Kachari kingdom and not Bodo Kachari Kingdom). The British-India colonial rulers effectively adapted divide and rule policy for over 300 years. It is likely that Bodo-Kachari were lagging behind their fellow Indians in terms of education and employability. Since the time of British Raj, Assam is known to produce oil and natural gas, and Assam tea. Before independence (1947), North-East India was a remote place.

Barely 48 hours before the inauguration of the joint custom station at Feni-Belonia on October 5 by the Shipping and Commerce Ministers of Bangladesh and an Indian counterpart, Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla, president of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), said in a statement, “I would like to request the government of Bangladesh to extend helping hands in our struggle for freedom.”

Front Nacional Democratic Bodoland: Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla, president of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), said in a statement, "I would like to request the government of Bangladesh to extend helping hands in our struggle for freedom." Nabla added, "Particularly, I would like to request the security forces of Bangladesh not to harass or arrest our cadres and members when they sometimes cross to Bangladesh for their safety and security." The rebel leader turned nostalgic when he claimed, "Even my parents had adopted a destitute and hapless young Bangladeshi boy in 1972. His name was Quiddos Mia." Demand for a Homeland, called Bodoland. Bodoland is an area located in the north bank of Brahmaputra river in the state of Assam in north east region of India, by the foothills of Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh; inhabited predominantly by Bodo language speaking ethnic group. Currently the hypothetical map of Bodoland includes the Bodoland Territorial Areas District (BTAD) administered by the non-autonomous Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC). The map of Bodoland overlaps with the districts of Kokrajhar, Baksa, Chirang and Udalguri in the state of Assam. At present, Kokrajhar serves as the capital of Bodoland.

In a rare display of emotion by any separatist leader of his likes, Nabla said, “If our people have helped Bangladeshis on all counts for freedom from Pakistan without questioning their legitimacy or whatsoever, it becomes an obligation for the people and the government of Bangladesh too to help us in our freedom struggle against India.”

Nabla added, “Particularly, I would like to request the security forces of Bangladesh not to harass or arrest our cadres and members when they sometimes cross to Bangladesh for their safety and security.” The rebel leader turned nostalgic when he claimed, “Even my parents had adopted a destitute and hapless young Bangladeshi boy in 1972. His name was Quiddos Mia.”

Like many other insurgent groups operating in the troubled region, the NDFB has been fighting for an independent homeland for the Bodo tribe of Assam since 1986 and the statement of Nabla coincided with the celebration of the NDFB’s 23 years of founding anniversary. 

Beijing & Washington

According to Assam Police, Nabla has also appealed last week to the Chinese government for help.

This assertion is reinforced by other sources within India who claim, “Daimary (Nabla) has made a simultaneous request to Beijing to take immediate action “on the basis of recommendations of Zhan Lue of the China International Institute of Strategic Studies (CIISS) who has suggested earlier that India as a whole should be divided into 20-30nation states on ethnic lines for rapid development and modernization of the region.”

Beijing has, however, made it clear that its government has got nothing to do with Lue’s theory.

China India border in 1962. Today Bangladesh is bang in the middle of this rivalry. Ranjan Daimary alias D R Nabla, president of the outlawed National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB), said in a statement, "I would like to request the government of Bangladesh to extend helping hands in our struggle for freedom." If our people have helped Bangladeshis on all counts for freedom ... without questioning their legitimacy or whatsoever, it becomes an obligation for the people and the government of Bangladesh too to help us in our freedom struggle against India."

Meanwhile, as the ministers and officials of Bangladesh and India busied themselves in connecting dots at the common borders on October 5, the US embassy in Dhaka declared that the U.S. and Bangladesh military forces would participate in a joint military exercise? along the country’s coastal region to increase what the embassy official said counter terrorism capabilities.

Codenamed “Tiger Shark,” the military manoeuvre is slated to last through November.

Another US embassy official was quoted earlier for having said, “Units from the Bangladesh Navy and the U.S. military will train on counter terrorism and combating piracy and maritime and coastal threats during this exercise.”

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Whatever intent the joint Bangladesh-US naval exercise may possess, those who spend valuable times in observing such matters are in no doubt that the exercise carries some message for China and its close ally, Myanmar. It also acquired further importance when, the following day (October 06), Ambassador James Moriarty personally met with Prime Minister Hasina. Although the meeting had apparently produced a message for BNP leaders to join the parliament, in reality, it had much to do with the bubbling geopolitical tension intensifying between India and China, according to sources.

Besides, the military dimension of the upcoming US- Bangladesh exercise is illustrated by the composition of forces from the host nation, Bangladesh, which is known to be preparing its elite Special Warfare Dive and Salvage units to join the manoeuvre.

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16th Century Bengal The Poloshi conspiracy: Jun 23rd 1757- A day of Infamy for the Subcontinent

A nuclear Myanmar?

Indian insurgency map. Naxal map: The real failed state is "India". Indian 2010: Cracks in "India" map.India cut down to size.Indian insurrection: Naxalte insurgency.

While these dangers lurk around, some observers are getting impatient about the AL-led regime’s not being mindful and cognizant of other serious developments which are on the verge of re-shaping the geopolitical landscape of the entire region. One of such events is the recent disclosure that Myanmar is about to test a nuclear device.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported recently that Myanmar appears to be establishing nuclear facilities with help from North Korea and Russia, possibly with the intent of producing nuclear weapons. If true, Yangon’s possession of nuclear arsenal will tilt the balance of forces by having in China’s side allies like nuclear armed North Korea, Russia, Pakistan, and, perhaps, Iran too.

Myanmar's stagnant nuclear program was revitalized shortly after Pakistan's first detonation of nuclear weapons in May 1998. Senior general and junta leader Than Shwe signed the Atomic Energy Law on June 8, 1998, and the timing of the legislation so soon after Pakistan's entry into the nuclear club did little to assuage international concerns about Myanmar's nuclear intentions. Some analysts believe the regime may eventually seek nuclear weapons for the dual purpose of international prestige and strategic deterrence. Myanmar's civilian-use nuclear ambitions made global headlines in early 2001, when Russia's Atomic Energy Committee indicated it was planning to build a research reactor in the country. The following year, Myanmar's deputy foreign minister, Khin Maung Win, publicly announced the regime's decision to build a nuclear research reactor, citing the country's difficulty in importing radio-isotopes and the need for modern technology as reasons for the move. The country reportedly sent hundreds of soldiers for nuclear training in Russia that same year and the reactor was scheduled for delivery in 2003. However, the program was shelved due to financial difficulties and a formal contract for the reactor, under which Russia agreed to build a nuclear research center along with a 10 megawatt reactor, was not signed until May 2007. The reactor will be fueled with non-weapons grade enriched uranium-235 and it will operate under the purview of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations' nuclear watchdog. The reactor itself would be ill-suited for weapons development. However, the training activities associated with it would provide the basic knowledge required as a foundation for any nuclear weapons development program outside of the research center.

Quoting two Burmese defectors who had disclosed details of the scheme to an Australian strategic studies analyst, Desmond Ball, and a Thailand-based journalist, Phil Thornton, some reports revealed that Yangon’s military regime has secretly constructed a reactor at Naung Laing that would encompass reprocessing technology designed to extract weapon-grade plutonium. Besides, a command and control facility for a nuclear-weapon program was reportedly prepared at a nearby underground location and members of the military nuclear battalion were working in the area, said one of the defectors. 

Economic mirage

Based on such realities, one can hardly attach any credence to the claim of prospective economic dividend by our government from the hastily arranged connectivity schemes with India’s Northeast. Besides, unbridled smuggling aside, official bilateral trade has been on the rise since the coming to power of a caretaker regime in late 2007, resulting in more and more trade imbalance for Bangladesh.

According to an official of the India-Bangladesh Chamber of Commerce and Industry (IBCCI), total bilateral trade between India and Bangladesh grew from $2.56 billion in 2006-07 to $3.616 billion in 2007-08. While that may seem like a positive thing, the underlying facts are too sobering for Bangladesh, and getting worse further. According to another official of the Bangladesh’s Export Promotion Bureau (EPB), “Bangladesh’s trade gap with India has increased to $ 2,566.42 million in 2008-09,” which include the first six months tenure of the incumbent regime.

This too is prompting many to question further the true intent of the government in rushing toward moves that are geopolitically self-destructive and economically elusive. Bangladesh turned into a theatreof covert warM. Shahidul Islam http://www.weeklyholiday.net/front.html#01