Gilles Dorronsoro's book Revolution Unending
Gilles Dorronsoro has written a book on Afghanistan. He does talk sense. Gilles Dorronsoro is professor of political science, Paris I (Pantheon-Sorbonne). He has written extensively on Afghan and Central Asian politics and is a member of the editorial committees of Cultures and Conflicts and Central Asian Literature.
Having traveled and researched in Afghanistan since 1988, Gilles Dorronsoro has developed a rich and nuanced understanding of the country’s history and people. In Revolution Unending he draws on his extensive firsthand experience to consider the political, historical, economic, and ethnic factors that will influence Afghanistan’s future. He argues that U.S. optimism about Afghanistan following Western intervention and recent elections fails to appreciate the divisions that continue to define the country.
While not underestimating the oft-cited “ethnic factor” in Afghan politics, especially Pashtun dominance, Dorronsoro argues that class and the competition for employment and education are key factors in explaining the country’s recent past. The 1990s saw the triumph of religious authorities (the ulema) and the marginalization of the traditional elites. With coalition intervention in 2001 and the subsequent deposition of the ulema-dominated Taliban, the educated elites are back in power. However, as Dorronsoro argues, patching up the country by means of short-term ethnic alliances and a new division of the spoils will only perpetuate the schisms in society. The Afghan civil war, Dorronsoro suggests, is set to continue and perhaps worsen over time
Admiral Mullen has been reading the wrong books. Every few weeks a new “expert” writes a new paper on Afghanistan and Pakistan. Ever few weeks the fawning American media places the report on the front pages of the Neocon media. Then Rupert Murdock’s acolytes question major players in the theater about the paper. This is a the racket. The obscure, never-heard-of-before writer then writes a book and make s book tour. Pronto we have a celebrity.
Gilles Dorronsoro
Gilles Dorronsoro is a real french “expert” who has written a paper for the Democratic leaning think tank called Carnegie Endowment. He paints the real picture of Afghanistan, and describes the stark future.
The Taliban’s clear strategy and increasingly coherent organization have put the International Coalition on the defensive, marginalized the local Afghan government, and given the Taliban control of southern and eastern Afghanistan. Rather than concentrating limited troops in the South and East where the Taliban are firmly entrenched, the International Coalition should prioritize regions where the Taliban are still weak but making alarming progress: in the North and around Kabul.
Far from a loose assortment of local groups, the Taliban are nationally organized, with coherent leadership and a sophisticated propaganda operation. The Coalition, on the other hand, lacks clear direction, largely due to its underestimation of the Taliban. Following a month-long trip through Afghanistan, Gilles Dorronsoro assesses the insurgency and proposes a strategy for the coalition based on a comprehensive understanding of the Taliban’s capabilities and goals.
Key points:
- The Taliban have built a parallel government in areas they control to fulfill two basic needs: justice and security. An almost nonexistent local government and the population’s distrust of the international coalition allowed the Taliban to expand their influence.
- Focusing resources in the South and East, where the insurgency is strongest, is risky, especially since the Afghan army is not ready to replace U.S. forces there.
- The Taliban have opened a front in the northern provinces, having consolidated their grip on the South and East. If the International Coalition does not counter this thrust, the insurgency will spread throughout Afghanistan within two to three years and the coalition will not be able to bear the financial and human costs of fighting.
- The insurgency cannot be defeated while the Taliban retain a safe haven in Pakistan. The Taliban can conduct hit-and-run attacks from their refuge in Pakistan, and the North remains open to infiltration.
- The United States must pressure Pakistan to take action against the Taliban’s central command in Quetta. The current offensive in Pakistan is aimed at Pakistani Taliban and does not indicate a major shift in Pakistani policy toward Afghanistan.
Dorronsoro concludes:
“The Taliban have a strategy and a coherent organization to implement it, and they have been successful so far. They have achieved most of their objectives in the South and East and are making inroads in the North. They are unlikely to change their strategy in the face of the U.S. troop surge. Rather than concentrating forces to challenge the International Coalition, the Taliban could decide to exert more pressure on Kabul, Ghazni, and Kandahar, which they have infiltrated. The insurgency does have weaknesses, though. If the Coalition reinforced the Afghan police and military in the North, the insurgents could be stopped relatively easily.” Carnegie
The Ultra-Conservative Republican-leaning Washington Times (not the Washington Post) interviews Admiral Mullen and brings up the article written by Mr. Dorronsorro. In a rare event Admiral Mullen accepts the mistakes made in Pakistan and explains the reasons. True to its masters, the Washington Times edits the comments surrounding the apology and then moves on to a totally unrelated subject–the Red October subs on the American Coasts.
It is worthmentioning that the Daily Times and the Times of India both published the same story, almost verbatim. What is the connection between the Daily Times and the Times of India? It is well known fact that Mr. Najam Sethi belongs to the 5thcolumn and both his newspapers, the Daily Times and the Friday Times mimic the news stories of Indian papers.
A report titled “The Taliban’s Winning Strategy in Afghanistan,” by Gilles Dorronsoro, a South Asia analyst and visiting scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said “Defeating the Taliban would require at least 100,000 new reinforcements as long as the Afghan-Pakistani border remained open to insurgents. Neither the United States nor NATO is willing or able to pay the human and fiscal costs of reinforcements at this level.”
The Taliban “have efficient leadership, are learning from their mistakes, and are quick to exploit the weaknesses of their adversaries,” Mr. Dorronsorowrote. He added that the militant group was building strength in the north of Afghanistan as U.S. forces surge in the south and east. Washington Times
American and internation papers are reporting total defeat in Afghanistan. ”I told you so’s” are so sweet. Pakistan was not consulted when an anti-Pakistan cabal of non-Pakhtun minorities, and coterie of corrupt incompetent warlords was imposed on Kabul. Pakistan was not listened to when she gave free advice to make the government more inclusive. Pakistan was not consulted when Mr. Karzai embraced India and opened up 4 Consulates and 13 information centers in Afghanistan.
Now the chickens have come home to roost. The Taliban for the first time in months attacked Kabul with the help of Karzai’s police and “army”. Western capitals are jittery and clearly a rattled Karzai doesn’t know hat to do
Adm. Mullen did not disagree with this assessment, saying the Taliban has become more effective and sophisticated in recent years. He said that the U.S. has 12 to 18 months “to start turning this thing around.”
He added that he and Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates have put together a new team, including Gen. Stanley McChrystal as commander of U.S.-led forces in Afghanistan.
I have taken my best people and given them to McChrystal,” Adm. Mullen said. “He literally has an open book or a blank check to get the best people we have there on the military side because this is a top priority. We’re at war. We’re losing young people and I want the absolute best people we’ve got.”
Genral Mullen’s optimism is founding on qucksand. Justifying the Banality of a brutal Occupation in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Thinktanksattempt to complete the circle of complicity between a sycophantic press, and a non-inquisitive servile public. The nation is forced to accept the only argument that it is being repeatedly inundated with .
Gen. McChrystal is due to release a new assessment Wednesday that is expected to ask for more U.S. and allied forces and to set new goals for the Afghan army and police forces. However, Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said Mr. Gates has extended the deadline until late August or early September, the Associated Press reported. “He wants [Gen. McChrystal] to take into consideration a few other ideas; he had to address some additional issues in this review of the situation on the ground,” Mr. Morrell said.
“That trust was badly broken when we left [Afghanistan] before and it was badly broken in Pakistan … when we sanctioned them [over their nuclear program],” he said. “It’s going to take a lot of time to develop.”
“I liken it to somebody who has been starving for a significant period of time and all the sudden you put all the food they need in the world there – they’re just not going to come back overnight,” he said. “So there’s a culture of poverty there which is very much a part of where we are in terms of resources and this isn’t just on the military side – this is on the civilian side.”
“I’m digging myself out of a hole in Pakistan and in Afghanistan,” Adm. Mullen said. “So there’s an argument to be made that I haven’t gotten to year zero yet with respect to that long-term relationship, and then that gets reflected in how the people look at this. Which I understand completely.” Washington Times
Admiral Mullen has made some pretty caustic comments about Pakistan. The rude Admiral Michael Mullen is still wrong on Afghanistan. What has changed to transform him and make him sing from the right hymnal? What has happened that forces Admiral Mullen to admit the error of his ways. While it may be worth celebrating the transformation of Admiral Mullen, one wonders about the fickle American Generals who change their minds every few days.
14 Bharati "Consulates" are RAW terror centers spreading sabotage across the border in Pakistan
Admiral Mullen’s comment on “culture of poverty” wont go well with the Pakistanis. Its not the culture of poverty, its the bankruptcy of thought that has created the quagmire for America. Its the Vacuity of ideas have not helped Admiral Mullen in containing the war in Afghanistan or winning it. The hole Admiral Mullen is talking about is going to keep getting bigger. Admiral Mullen doesn’t have 100,000 trooops to quell the violence in Afghanistan. He needs Pakistan’s help. Islamabad has made it clear that it can and will help if Bhrati (aka Indian) influences are eliminated in Kabul. If Admiral Mullen doesn’t get this, he hasn’t got anything. Pakistan nationalism is not less than American nationalism. It cannot be ridiculed as “paranoia”. Unless Admiral Mullen comprehends the depth of Pakistani nationalism, he can never grasp the realities of South Asia. Admiral Mullen has been reading the wrong books. Ahmed Rashid and Pervez Hoodbhoy represent no one but themselves. If Admiral Mullen understand the feelings of the Pakistanis he will be able to resolve the crisis in the area. Kashmir and Afghanistan are linked. Its not AfPak, its AfKash. Solving one solves the other. Its not just AfPak, the real Graveyard of Empires is AfPak-TurkTaj-UzbKaz-AzKyr -istan
You have to give it to the American propaganda machine. U.S. officials and America’s long list of self-styled ‘Pakistan experts’ are advising Islamabad to stop meddling in Afghanistan. But it is kosher for the U.S. military to travel half the world to occupy Afghanistan and that’s not meddling. Well guess what, Pakistan has more pressing interests as a next door neighbor of Afghanistan and it will protect its interests. Who says CIA’s interests in Afghanistan are more sacred than ISI’s?
Regardless of what many of his Pakistani cheerleaders say, President Obama’s new ‘Af-Pak’ policy is a lot of mumbojumbo that conceals two basic threads: expanding the war inside Pakistan and using the pretext of a ‘regional approach’ to bring India into Afghanistan as Washington and London’s new slave-soldier, especially when NATO members won’t deliver. Surely Washington is not thinking about empowering the Chinese or the Iranians in Afghanistan as part of its newfound regionalism.Ahmed Quraishi
Something important was reported in the interview. That is a story by itself. Admiral Mullen say that that he has 18 months to turn things around. That is the same deadline given to the US military by the American Congress. In 2011, the Britishers and the Canadians leave Afghanistan. President Obama better have some good news to report to voting public if he wants to win the election in 2012.
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