NEW DELHI – In an explosive revelation that may well have unsavory foreign policy repercussions, a senior official of India’s premier defense organization – the Defense Research and Development Organization (DRDO) – who played a pivotal role in orchestrating India’s nuclear program during the Pokhran nuclear tests in 1998, has declared that the tests that year were a dud and not nearly as successful as projected to the world.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2iBXKgkcIg
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s2iBXKgkcIg]
The declaration by K Santhanam – remarkable as it comes from a top nuclear scientist directly associated with India’s nuclear program – has stirred a hornet’s nest in New Delhi.
The scientific community and political parties – primarily the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and its principal right-wing opposition Bharatiya Janata Party under whose stewardship the tests were conducted – are scrambling to offer explanations to counter Santhanam’s statement.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1f6vbiuUt0
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1f6vbiuUt0]
Home Minister P Chidambaram said he was “puzzled” by the scientist’s remark and acerbically added, “If you are not, then you are a genius.”
Santhanam’s comments were also contested by Brajesh Mishra, national security advisor in the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government (1998-2004) who said R Chidambaram, then chairman of the Department of Atomic Energy, had reported to him on May 13, 1998, that all parameters had been met in the five tests carried out and there was no need to undertake a sixth one.
Chidambaram has maintained that the Bhabha Atomic Research Center had done numerous measurements on site during the Pokhran-II experiments, analyzed global seismic data and the radioactivity in samples recovered post-shot from near the emplacement points of the nuclear devices to conclude that the tests were indeed a success. Even erstwhile president A P J Abdul Kalam, who as director-general of the DRDO spearheaded the nuclear tests in 1998, said the tests were “successful”.
India conducted five nuclear tests on May 11 and 13, 1998, at the Pokhran range in the western state of Rajasthan. These included a 45-kiloton (kt) thermonuclear device, also called a hydrogen bomb. Other tests on May 11 included a 15-kt fission device and a 0.2-kt sub-kiloton device. The two simultaneous nuclear tests on May 13 were also in the sub-kiloton range – 0.5 and 0.3 kt.
According to Santhanam, the yield of thermonuclear explosions was below par and hence not sufficient to meet India’s strategic requirements. The scientist’s contention is that since India still needs to carry out more tests to fine-tune its nuclear program, it should not rush to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Many Western seismic experts, too, had challenged India’s claim of a 60-kiloton (kt) yield on May 11 and 700 tons on May 13, 1998. They approximated that the output was about 10-15 kt on the first day and about 100 tons later. US intelligence was of the view that India’s claim of testing a “thermonuclear device” actually amounted to no more than a hydrogen bomb.
The latest revelations have hit like a whiplash at both the Vajpayee-led government which conducted the tests and Manmohan Singh’s current administration. The Vajpayee government – which had steamrolled world opinion to go ahead with the nuclear tests within a few months of coming to power that year – was keen to impress the world with India’s newfound nuclear prowess.
The “dud tests” theory has also complicated things for Singh, and might even jeopardize his carefully choreographed civilian nuclear deal signed with the United States last year, which catapulted India into mainstream international nuclear commerce, that too without signing the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zTnARCBi3c&feature=player_embedded
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9zTnARCBi3c&feature=player_embedded]
Santhanam’s outburst implies that India requires additional nuclear testing for its program to be perfected and to gain credibility. This will obviously be anathema to America as the India-US nuclear agreement comes with a clear caveat – that another nuclear test would lead to its abrogation.
Foreign policy experts point out that the nuclear deal is premised on a waiver to the US’s Atomic Energy Act which bars nuclear trade between the US and countries that are not signatories to the NPT. This waiver covers only Indian nuclear tests until May 13, 1998. Any fresh tests would bring the ban on nuclear trade into immediate force.
The exact yield of the thermonuclear explosion is vital to gauge a country’s defense preparedness. This was evident during the heated debate in the wake of the India-US nuclear deal, when many top scientists argued that the disincentives the nuclear deal imposed on testing won’t be relevant to India as no further tests were required for its nuclear program.
Santhanam’s assertion might well mess up things for Manmohan on the CTBT front too. The treaty has gathered immense salience under US President Barack Obama who, unlike his predecessor George W Bush, is keen to push the treaty through the senate. If it comes through, India will again face the same dilemma it did before the Pokhran tests – to test or not.
Once the CTBT is ratified in the US Congress, probably within a few months, every other country will toe the line. India, which maintains that it will not come on board, will then seem recalcitrant if it goes against the tide of world opinion.
But more than anything else, what this development might do is seriously undermine India’s much-vaunted claim of possessing a world-class nuclear deterrence capability. It also riddles holes in the country’s nuclear force claims, as the whole idea behind the Pokhran tests was to strengthen the view that India possessed a credible nuclear deterrent.
Thus, Santhanam’s revelations are likely to have far-reaching reverberations in the country’s security policy. Many attribute Santhanam’s outburst to political motivation. Why else, they argue, would the scientist feel the need to rake up the issue after 11 years? Others feel Santhanam has put forth this view now because he’s not keen on India signing the CTBT. The scientist maintains that India should not rush to sign the treaty before conducting more tests and augmenting its nuclear weapons program.
Many in the Indian scientific establishment are against India giving up the option of further tests. They feel it is vital to conduct more tests to calibrate India’s thermonuclear bomb to perfection. Another theory doing the rounds is that raking up the nuclear tests issue now may well be a devious ploy to test again. Asia Times. Neeta Lal is a widely published writer/commentator who contributes to many reputed national and international print and Internet publications. India reels under explosive nuclear charge. By Neeta Lal
agood article.
here in india everybode is debating about it,
there are many who agree that the test were a failure and many disagree,
but what is the real truth, i as a layman can only make wild guesses
many questions arise
1, if the test were a failure why wait over a decade to say it
a, is it a congress ploy to take away credit from the BJP GOVT, if so why they could not do during the last lok sabha when they were in power, is because now BJP is on the back foot and they are taking advntage of it, remmember politics is a very dirty game
2, now if the test was a sucess
a, when someone like Dr kalam says it was a sucess then everybody in india listens as noone in india is as respecetd as him and dr manmohan, so the matters is close , the army too says it was a sucess as far as they are concerned hence we consider the test sucessful
if so then why we say the test was not sucessful is it a ploy some say yes some say no
probably
( regarding statement from other external agaencies that the test was a failure does not carry much wait as they tow their govt line and have their own axe to grind
its just to prove that india is not a nuclear power and hence willot get full neuclear status ect ect)
first everybody agrees now it will be very difficult to test again, bec of the economic implication
a, during the previous lok sabha we had Mr bush as president and he was pro india where neuclers deal was concerned and even regarding visa for indian tech and out sourcincing of job to india
toady we have obama, who is not so favourably inclined towards india his statement from the time he has taken over show this attitude, be it kashmir, the neuclear deal, our out sourcing
he had also started making pro pak sounds which india obviously do not like, foircing to reduce our army on the wester border, giving aid to the pak army for armaement to fight taliban, but which india claims the weapons will be used against india ect
as today there was an article in usa and indian press, pak modifies milliles to target india
now looking at all the above
now this maybe a way of putting pressure on him, saying look guys our test was a dud, and probably we may have to test again as per the wishises of our people as we are democracy we have to bow to them
if inda test now it will be the biggest embrassement to the obama govt, and the republicaan willl make the kill in usa,
obama cannot afford it as his popularity is already declinning for various reason from guantanamo to health care issue,
second since obama is making a lot of problem regarding the nuke deal, it mabe our way of saying either finalise the deal now or we test again,
this is a game of dare who blinks first , obama option are limited, he does not want to be know as the person responsoble for the spread of the neuclear arms, as Iran is just waiting on the wings as soon as if and ever india test again, they can make a hue and cry as how they are being targeted and india gets away with it
then israel will be making noise, and pak will have to reple in someways and the mess will start all ob=ver again
if osama target india if india test well u know indai will have quite a nuisenec value, helping iran an create problem on the pak border so pak army is dvided on both bordere and may not be abale to fully help usa in af-pak border ect
as of now we do not have much to lose as usa economy is down, so our exports are down, infact now china is our largest trading partner,
theres is no doubt whatsoever we need USA
so the ball is in usa courts, either they go ahaead with the deal without creating any futher problem,
now the test maybe duds in any case the govt is building concensus if it needs to test again, and forpeople to tighten their belt to face any economic hardship that may follow
as everybody know our neuclear reserch is top secret as is other countries
NOW WHY WOULD A SCIENTEST SUDDENLY GET UP ONE FINE MORNING AND SAY THE TEST WAS A FAILURE, BY BYPASSING HIS BOSS, UNLESS THERE IS SOMETHING MORE THEN MEETS THE EYE, TO CREATE CONFUSION ,
remmember CHANAKYAM deceive thy enemy by whatever means create illusions ect
ciao
Richie Rodrigues
It usually takes a decade for the truth to come out. US and international scientists had already voiced reservations about the explosions.
There may be internl wrangling on the issue–we agree but the fact remains that the “denials’ are pretty week and do not challenge the numbers–rather the denials say that “expected results were acheived”.
Please note that Mr. Kalam does not have a real Doctorate degree. He is not a PhD from a regular university. His multiple PhDs are honorary PhDs . The writings of the man in charge on the ground on Pkhran are more important
Sethna said “former president APJ Abdul Kalam was not a scientist and Santhanam is a physicist and he knew what he was talking.
“What does Kalam understand about physics? He can say anything as he was the President and a politician.”
“What Santhanam said was absolutely correct,” he added.
“What did he (Kalam) know about extracting, making explosive grade? He didn’t know a thing. By being a president he appeared to wear the stature. He relied on atomic energy to gain additional stature,” http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/news/india/Sethna-slams-Kalam-says-Pokhran-II-done-in-haste/articleshow/4960385.cms
We agree the statements may be tainted by the parties that oppose the 123 deal with the US which probits further testing. There is intense pressure on Bharat to sign the CTBT–which it will eventually sign. This issue of the Pokhran balsts should be seen in the context of the 123 and the CTBT–and we already clearly identify this in the article.
However the fact remains that Shakti were duds.
u do not understsnd the politics of india
govet have fallen over the price of onions in india, and u rae talking of signing CTBT, its like kashmir whichever party gives even an inch will be out of power for a long long time and political parties want to be in power whatevr the cost, same with CTBT, no govt will have the guts,
unless india gets what it wants india will never sign, CTBT, we did not sign when we were bankrupt nation, whe we had to pledge our gold to pay for our imports, during PM chandra shekar, do u think we will do it now when we have a little money in our kitty, and pak and china being neuclear, and assuming out test was a failure
regarding dr kalam, when u run a company the GM or the ceo need not be an engineer or computer programmer ect as long as u have a working knowledge and know what u want from ur staff, and DR kalam knew excatly waht was needed, and thts the only critrea,
regarding USA they have a disinformation cell which workd 24/7, leaking news to press, thru various organisation or senators ect, we usually ignore them,
now , regarding it being a failure to be honest there is no way of me knowing,
now with issue of who i beleive american our my ex president, and my army cheif, i will beleive my ex president
ciao
I agree with Richie that expecting truth from the CHAANKIAIES is insane,what is the reality ,is difficult to say when chaankiaie mind already find the zionist one.1 ugly+1worse=????????????