The Americans bomb the tribal area at will, not caring a hoot for the civilian lives. The Turks cross over into Iraqi Kurdistan and bomb the terrororsts. The Israeli fly over Lebanon, Syria,  the West bank and Gaza to fire at Anti-israeli suspects. Rehman Malik has identified the Kunar area of Afghanistan where the terror is being directed against Pakistan. If the PAF is unable and unwilling to stop the drones, then the questions is, when will the PAF live up to its obligations and begin eliminating the terror camps across the border.

Osama bin Laden and the top Al-Qaeda leadership are not in Pakistan, making US missile attacks against them futile, according to the country’s interior minister.

“If Osama was in Pakistan we would know, with all the thousands of troops we have sent into the tribal areas in recent months,” Rehman Malik told The Sunday Times. “If he and all these four or five top people were in our area they would have been caught, the way we are searching.”

He added: “According to our information Osama is in Afghanistan, probably Kunar, as most of the activities against Pakistan are being directed from Kunar.” The UK Times.

Rehman Malik’s statement is profound. He is not one who blames others lightly. Even when faced with overwhelming evidence in Wagah and Islamabad, Rehman Malik did not accuse Bharat. He has done so now, and in a big way. Pakistan is now paying back Delhi and the onslaught is unrelenting and lethal. The comments by Mr. Rehman and General Kiyan were followed up with an in-depth ISPR interview with CNN. Here is what Mr. Abbas said.

Abbas: What we see as a concern is an over-involvement of Indians in Afghanistan that becomes a concern — particularly if one is watching the security calculus in that. If you find a [indistinct] Pashtun, or if the Pashtun are not given their due representation in the government and the military… that causes concern. If you see an over ingress of the Indians into these areas, like their government, their ministries, their army. The fear is, tomorrow what happens if these Americans move out and they’re replaced by Indians as military trainers? That becomes a serious concern. So these kind of apprehensions are there, and they are talked about and they are consulted.

There is clear evidence that the Indo-US relationship has taken a turn for the worst, and the US cannot play China against Bharatwith a neutral Japan. The problems in Eastern Turkistan could be a spill over of the Afghan war. The are is linked by many grids. The IMU is a major player that has caused headaches for Uzbekistan. AfPak countercurrents beyond the Oxus to AfPakAzUzbKazTurkKyr-istan.

There are six parts to this story. One part deals with the improving US-Pakistani relations (drone bombing not withstanding) after the coming to power of Mr. Obama. The other part deals with the stagnation in the US-Bharti nexus. The third part is the Iranain situation which makes Pakistan ever more valuable to Western interests. The fifth part is the Urumqui rioting and the distance ms. Kadeer has created between China and the West. The sixth dimension is Russia and the SCO. The improving Russian Pakistan relations and Paksitan’s desire to join the Shanghai Club lets the US know that it is not the sole superpower.

There is news now that the Pakistanis have publicly offered to mediate the war in Afghanistan and prepare for an exit strategy from Afghanistan. For the ISPR to publicly announce the help to the USA simply attests to the fact that the deal has already been consummated. It is pedagogical  to note that the announcement to mediate with the Taliban comes at the heal-of a the victory in Swat which routed the RAW agents who had tried to create problems for Pakistan.

The new found confidence of the Pakistani spokesman tells us reams on how the war went in Swat. The ISI has concrete evidence in terms of arms, ammunition and personnel of Delhi’s involvement in Swat. The Army has chosen to take concrete action on these matters rather than to make a fuss about it at the UN and other “cry baby” forums.

With denials and counter-charges, we thought it import to publish the entire transcript of the CNN interview with the Pakistani ISPR and its spokesman Mr. Abbas.

Ware: So what can Pakistan do to protect its interests in the face of these concerns in Afghanistan? What can you do?

Abbas: We keep talking, we keep informing them that these are our concerns…

Ware: Informing India?

Abbas: Informing the coalition there and these are our concerns and they have to have a line because if [it] goes beyond them, beyond the line then of course the situation would take an ugly turn…

Ware: But sir, talk is so very cheap, I mean what sanctions or what leverage can you hope to have?

Don’t Miss

Pakistan says Taliban leader will talk to U.S.

Abbas: Well, every state has options, the states do not run out of options. We have our options also in this regard.

Ware: Such as what sir?

(Abbas laughing)

Ware: Come on, tell me something here sir.

Abbas: Well the states do not disclose their options also, but there are options of how far you can go in supporting the coalition there. How far you can go accepting the Indian ingress there etc. So the states work out their own options in this regard. But the concern is the other side has to see the legitimacy of the concern. If the concerns are not legitimate then the other side would not buy. But this… if there are concern… take example of we have been informing the coalition that our situation in Baluchistan is a result of somebody working out of Kabul. We have informed them that this group is creating an uncertainty, an instability in Afghanistan and it is residing in Kabul.

When historically you sit back and you look — and you see that America, in Afghanistan, is now fighting against a number of its former allies from the 1980s. It was the Pakistani intelligence services that was so instrumental in assisting the American relationship in fighting against the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. And in that regard, it was groups such as Hizb-e-Islami of Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, Jalaladdin Haqqani — the Noorzai tribes of the south, the Pashtun tribes, indeed the tribe of Mullah Omar himself, these were very valuable partners — American allies — through the friendship of Pakistan. Now America finds itself fighting these exact men and these groups. How complicated is that? And how does that make Pakistan’s situation more precarious?

Ware: Must be difficult for you sir, being in the middle of all of this?

Abbas: Yes certainly, yes certainly, we are in the eye of the storm. And as you said there is a history. Since last over 30 years this whole area is mobilized, it is on the move. The youth has grown, seen nothing but the bloodshed, fighting, and all this movement has caused them, deprived them of any education. They are only in the business of fighting, so therefore this has made the situation more complex. That the allies of the past have turned into enemies.

Ware: And yet you’re still in the middle between all these allies?

Abbas: That’s right. And that’s what makes it difficult to understand others’ position. That can only happen when you have an intense, uh, negotiations and engagement only then you can understand the real difficulties of operating against those people who were the allies in the past, and in the area which were the sort of a training centers of the past.

Ware: Well those the exact same areas, are they not? The same red lines, the same sanctuaries… that America once supported them.

(Abbas laughs)

Abbas: Yes, that’s right. You see, in this area of the freedom fight against the Soviets was converted into the holy war, or the holy jihad though American literature which came from Nebraska.

Ware: They were publishing the holy Quran from America and distributing it even in Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan and…

Abbas: Now that situation has reversed. It is we find these tribes on the other side, and it is difficult for their recruits or their people also to understand, why once we were allies are fighting against each other. So it is difficult to make them realize that look, there is a state, the state has some constraints of operation. The state has to take into account the national interest and therefore it cannot be allowed that you create all those centers here and cross over to Afghanistan and start killing the other side. So therefore these kinds of things is understandable to some but difficult to convince some of the other groups.

Ware: Absolutely, and trying to explain this to the American public is an entirely different thing. I mean, to what degree can Pakistan’s relationships with both sides — both with the formal Mujahedeen fighters and with America, be a value today in trying to broker a solution? I mean, Pakistan’s long had relationships with Hikmatyar, Haqqani, with the Pashtun tribes. To some degree, those relationships of course naturally continue. How can you use those relationships with these forces who were once friends of America, and now fighting America, of value to bring a solution?

Abbas: Now we are getting into the politics of war. What the ISI [the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate] in the past had a very intense relationship because all – the whole coalition of the past were using them in Afghanistan.

Ware: While America in fact turned to the ISI to have these relationships.

Abbas: That’s right, the ISI was in the forefront of the whole struggle against the Soviets. Now by maintaining the contact with the organizations like what you have mentioned of Hikmatyar and Haqqani, doesn’t mean that the state as a policy is providing them the physical support or the funding or the training. It doesn’t mean that. Because, you know after 9/11 the state had realized it is no more possible to sustain a policy of supporting the Taliban in Afghanistan. And therefore there was a U turn, and the state followed, the army followed, the ISI followed. But having said that, no intelligence organization in the world shuts its last door on any other organization. So therefore the contacts are there. The communication remains. But it doesn’t mean that you endorse what they are doing in Afghanistan. You know you have nothing to do with it because your plate is full. You have enough in your plate. These all local Talibans and militants and terrorists who have turned inward on to the state is enough for the state to take care of and this is exactly what we are engaged in: Baujour, Waziristan, Moman, Kabar, Swat, this is enough for the state. Looking at our capacity, we have limited capacity we are not a global power. We have very small army and we have some gaps in technology also. We do need modern technology to fight this kind of war. And we have created our defense forces India specific, a conventional war specific. For this unconventional war we do require help, assistance, support in specific areas.

Last year, the representatives of the Karzai government as well as the emissaries of the Taliban met in Saudi Arabia. This was disclosed by none other than the Bruce Reidel one of President Obama’s advisors. We have already calculated that the US president had two years to resolve Afghanistan. The Briish and the Canadians are withdrawing from Afghanistan in 2011 and the Europeans have lost all enthusiasm the perpetual warfare in the Hindu Kush. 

Now Pakistan has offered an escape hatch to the sinking ship of the US Army. Pakistan has publicly stated that it can leverage the Taliban for a peace deal if the US reduces and eliminates Indian influences in Afghanistan. Based on the statements emanating from the White House and the State Department America is not only amenable to such a deal, it is acitvely encouraging the Pakistani government on taking the initiative.

Ware: In terms of Afghanistan, what is the solution, from the Pakistani point of view, what is the best way forward? Is there room for negotiation between America and the forces it’s in conflict with? How does America get its way out of the situation in Afghanistan?

Abbas: You know again we will get into the statecraft of this whole affair, but…

Ware: Militarily? Because America cannot win militarily? Can it? Can America win with guns and bullets?

Abbas: I think no counterinsurgency can be won only by the application of force. It has to go along with the political strategy, the political instrument; the development and the reconstruction also along with that. The military can create an environment, it can create temporary stability, it can bring back security but that would be temporary. It has to have the major stakeholders — that being the administration, the civilians, the notables, the representatives, and the civilian police agency etc. who have to police the area. To take control of the security on the long-term basis, the military would give them a temporary security situation. Now we are very clear about this when we are operating in Swat, the military will provide them a temporary stability in the area. It would help also the civilian agencies, including administration and police, but then — unless and until the major stakeholders, the people themselves, they have to take control of the area along with the police and the administration. Only then a lasting peace will return. Otherwise, it would keep on creating fighting in this area. The peace would not return on a permanent basis.

Ware: General, I am getting the wind-up from your aide, just one last question. We saw great success in the Iraq theatre, where America engaged the insurgents it was fighting against and eventually put 103,000 Sunni insurgents on the American payroll that assisted them in their fight against al Qaeda, and it assisted America in its challenge to curb Iranian influence. Is there room for such negotiation here? In the Afghan-Pakistan theatre? Can America negotiate with the groups it’s currently fighting with?

Abbas: Certainly — I think that you can’t use one formula in dealing with various groups. This is not a monolithic organization. How we look at Pakistani-Taliban is not a monolithic organization.

Ware: And how you look at Afghan-Taliban is totally different.

Abbas: Absolutely, they are totally different.

Ware: But can America talk to these groups? Can America… is part of the solution, America negotiating with these forces?

Abbas: There are reconcilable elements in these whole, in this whole Taliban groups etc. and one has to identify those and they are reconcilable and when there is no harm in negotiating…opening a negotiation with them.

Ware: Just a dialogue.

Abbas: That’s right, dialogue. Eventually one would have to return to the dialogue table.

Ware: And that’s where Pakistan can perhaps provide valuable assistance to the American mission.

Abbas: I think yes that can be worked out, that’s possible.

With Swat sanitized of the RAW infestation, the situation in the Hindu Kush is getting a bit more clearer. China and the West are driving towards a chasm, and the divide between Iran and the US has never been wider. In these circumstances there is a respite in the the vitriol from the Murdock press against Pakistan. Even the New York Times,  the Washington Post and the worst Pakistanibhobic newspaper the Guardian is discussing Islamabad in measured tones. 

The US is leaving Afghanistan. Only the details of the withdrawal and the schedule of the return is to announced. A massive campaign will be launched to obfuscate the defeat with face saving measures like the ones implemented in Iraq.Uzbekistan pressured by IMU is scared of Taliban reprisals on Supplies to Kabul. The NATO allies are reluctant to commit more troops.  The outgoing NATO commander estimated that 400,000 troops were needed to defeat the Taliban. An optimal troop level is impossible to be met. The US and its NATO allies simply do not have the capacity to deploy the troops necessary to force a military settlement or to pacify and occupy Afghanistan. Tick Tock Tick Tock-2011: Obama’s shrinking Afghan timeline.

The Drone attacks remain a big stickler in US Pakistani relations with many claiming a complex web of deceit and secret approvals.

Washington does not directly acknowledge its missile attacks on Pakistani territory by unmanned drone aircraft but Pakistani officials say the US has carried out more than 40 attacks inside its borders in the past 10 months, killing hundreds of people.

CIA officials claim these attacks have been highly effective in disrupting Al-Qaeda’s ability to operate. However, Malik insists they are a waste of time because the Al-Qaeda leadership is on the other side of the border in eastern Afghanistan.

“They’re getting mid-level people not big fish,” he said. “And they are counterproductive because they are killing civilians and turning locals against our government. We try to win people’s hearts, then one drone attack drives them away. One attack alone last week killed 50 people.”

The removal of Bharati agents in Swat has baffled Delhi which thought that it could continue the procy war in Swat for a decade like it did in Sri Lanka. The new found confidence of the Pakistani spokesman tells us reams on how the war went in Swat. The ISI has concrete evidence in terms of arms, ammunition and personnel of Delhi’s involvement in Swat. The Army has chosen to take concrete action on these matters rather than to make a fuss about it at the UN and other “cry baby” forums.

The army has not yet caught the leaders of the Swat Taliban though the interior minister claims that the main leader, Maulana Fazlullah, has been hit twice and is badly wounded. “I’m quite confident we’ll get them,” he said.

“Not only have we killed most of them but we’ve also destroyed their hideouts and arms depots,” he added. “We discovered long, wide tunnels they were using for weapons.”

According to Malik, the families of the militant leaders had been discovered hiding in the refugee camps. Fazlullah’s family was found in a camp in Haripur and taken into custody.

Troops will remain in Swat to prevent the Taliban from returning but the army’s main focus is switching to the tribal areas of Waziristan, home to one of the area’s fiercest tribes. South Waziristan is the headquarters of Mehsud, and the north is also a base of Jalaluddin Haqqani, an Afghan warlord with close links to Al-Qaeda believed to be responsible for the capture of an American soldier last week.

“Wherever these militants are, we’ll get them out,” said Malik. “The decision of the government is very firm – no mercy, no negotiation. They must surrender or die.”

For all Washington’s talk of an “AfPak strategy”, he said, Pakistan’s efforts to take on the Taliban their side of the border are being hampered by the failure of American and British troops in Afghanistan to monitor their side.

“Two years ago we were being criticised by the West for our ISI [Inter-Services Intelligence agency] helping the Taliban cross into Afghanistan,” he said. “We have stopped the border crossing. Now we’re finding the same situation – they’re coming from the other side, bringing arms and fighters from Helmand into Baluchistan and into Waziristan. Should we say it’s Afghan or western intelligence helping them?”

He argued that Nato troops in Afghanistan should have first sealed the border before stepping up the fighting. “If we can’t seal it totally we should seal it as much as possible,” he said. “If we can’t have a wall, at least let’s put up barbed wire.”

“They should replicate what we’ve done,” he added. “We have 1,000 checkpoints on our side – they have only 100, of which only 60 are working. It makes no sense to both be fighting either side of the border without stopping the militants crossing.”Stop bombing us: Osama isn’t here, says Pakistan Christina Lamb in Karachi

There is no military solution to the Afghan quagmire. We have been advocating a more comprehensive solution for a decade. Replacing Mr. Karzai with Zalmay Khalilzad is like moving the deck chairs on the Titanic. The whole game is over. The US and European media too busy with the US elections has still not caught up with the reality of the fiasco in Kabul. The end is near.

Our man in England Pak Brid adds: There are claims, counter-claims, and denials of what the Pakistani ISPR spokesman, Mr. Abbas, actually said in his interview with CNN. Adversaries have already created a propaganda storm, after his interview, while blaming Pakistan of having links with Afghan Taliban. However, some would argue that Pakistan should indeed keep a communication channel open with Afghan Taliban in order to have some leverage after the occupying foreign forces decide to call a day in Afghanistan and leave that country. I would not completely agree to that. Pakistan, to me, must have an active relationship with Afghan militants for the sake of regional stability and effectively safeguarding our national interests. Many enemy forces (including Indian RAW, Israeli Mossad, British MI6, to name only a few) active in Afghanistan are using the Afghan soil, with collaboration from Karazai’s puppet government, to instigate, train, and support anti-Pakistan terrorists and send them into Pakistan for suicide bombings, killing civilians, and creating insurgency-like situation. To make the matters worse and confused, these terrorists too are labeled as Taliban. Because of the use of Afghan soil by the occupying forces for their anti-Pakistan activities, the ISI must counter, fight, and defeat these evil forces right in Afghanistan. None of these countries (i.e. India, Israel, Britain, etc.) have a direct geographic link with Afghanistan. The sole objective of their presence in Afghanistan for their anti-Muslim and anti-Pakistan activities is to harm Pakistan. These alien forces are, in fact, waging a pre-emptive war against Pakistan well away from their own territories. The battle ground, in other words, is not the British foggy lands, the soft bellies in Indian heartland, or cursed Israeli cities and towns. The battle is being fought on Pak lands from the springboard of Afghanistan. Pakistan must fight against these evil forces and kick their asses out of Afghanistan. Pakistan needs Afghan Taliban to effectively achieve that goal. Mr. Abbas should have taken a little pause before prematurely offering a white flag especially now that Pakistanis clearly understand the enemy game plan after having so much blood on Pak lands.