“An effective counter-strategy must begin with the following insight. The West has lost the so-called ‘war on terror.’ Al-Qaeda lives. Blockading Hamas, bombing Hezbullah, isolating Ahmadinejad’s Iran and shutting out Assad’s Syria have made this four-way axis stronger than ever.” —Columnist Michael Thumann

Indian politicians these days seem to think their country would be doing China a huge favor simply by not joining the “ring around China” established by the US and Japan. India’s growing power would have a significant impact on the balance of this quation, which has led India to think that fear and gratitude for its restraint will cause China to defer to it on territorial disputes.  But this is wishful thinking, as China won’t make any compromises in its border disputes with India. And while China wishes to coexist peacefully with India, this desire isn’t born out of fear. China Peoples Daily

Several major tectonic events have impacted Pakistan’s decisions in Swat and FATA. While the Necons and rupert Murdock newspapers publish their usual rhetoric against Pakistan (which has had nukes for decade without incident and without threatening anyone), North Korea not only exploded Nuclear bombs, Pyonyong directly threatens to use its bombs against Japan, South Korea and the American mainland itself. The scared South Korean president is rushing to Washington. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, perhaps the most important organization in the world,  is meeting again–its member states cover an area of over 30 million km2, or about three fifths of Eurasia, with a population of 1.455 billion, about a quarter of the world’s total. Several summits are being held in the Urals city of Yekaterinburg. These summits are possibly changing the world as we know it. The SCO working languages are Chinese and Russian and encompass Kazakhstan, China, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Mongolia, India, Pakistan and Iran are observers). It seems everybody who is anybody in the world is meeting in Yekaterinburg. The multiple summits are threatening the US and NATO with subtle messages and not so subtle teasers.

However the summits do not actually show the realities on the ground. those espousing Chindia are deeply disappointed that this may never really happen. Judging by the Sino Indian tensions Chini-Hindi bhai bhai lies dead and buried.

India’s current course can only lead to a rivalry between the two countries. India needs to consider whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China. It should also be asking itself why it hasn’t forged the stable and friendly relationship with China that China enjoys with many of India’s neighbors, like Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka.

Any aggressive moves will certainly not aid the development of good relations with China. India should examine its attitude and preconceptions; it will need to adjust if it hopes to cooperate with China and achieve a mutually beneficial outcome. China Peoples Daily

A meeting of the CSTO (Collective Treaty Organization–former USSR countries)  is also being held in the same town. A BRIC (Brazil, Russia, China, India) summit is also being held in the same town and the same place. Russia sees an opening to the Arabian sea. The BRIC meeting cannot hide the rising tensions between China and India.  Bharat repeatedly calling China its number one enemy, moving its Nuclear armed Sukhoi fighters to advanced airbases in South Tibet (which India calls Arunchal Pradesh)

…a decision to move more troops to the border would lead to a rivalry between the two countries, and asked the Indian government to consider ‘whether or not it can afford the consequences of a potential confrontation with China.’ … ‘China is seen in India as both a potential threat and a competitor to surpass. But India can’t actually compete with China in a number of areas, like international influence, overall national power and economic scale. India apparently has not yet realised this.’

The paper described as ‘wishful thinking’ that ‘gratitude for India’s restraint’ in joining the ‘ring around China’ established by the United States and Japan would see China deferring to Indian demands on territorial disputes. ‘China won’t make any compromises in its border disputes with India,’ it said. The People’s Daily Editorial on Thursday, June 12th.

While the US watches from the sidelines, Russia and China are getting closer economically. Will Yekaterinburg be the place which buried the Dollar?

- Russia and China signed an intergovernmental agreement on oil cooperation in Beijing on Tuesday, under which a new branch from the East Siberia-Pacific Ocean (ESPO) pipeline will be built toward China.

The agreement sets out terms for oil cooperation between the countries, in particular on the laying of a pipeline from the Skovorodino refinery in Russia’s Far East to Mohe County in China’s Heilongjiang province. Under the deal, the pipeline must be completed by the end of next year. BEIJING, April 21 (RIA Novosti)

President Barack Obama in one simple letter to Bharati (aka Indian) Prime Minister Manmohan Singh directed him to retreat from the Pakistani border. This led to the announcement of the withdrawal of Indian troops from Kashmir. According to news reports, Bharat has also been asked to shut down or dramatically reduce its Consulates in Afghanistan.

Pakistan and Iran signed the Iran-Pakistan pipeline much to the chagrin of America and the disappointment of Delhi. To make assurance double sure, the West got the message, the Iranians thumbed their noses at the West and reelected the much hated Ahmedinijad. If the Israelis could elect Netanyahu, and ultra right extremists, the Iranians could pay that snub in kind.

Half way across the world, the US also threw his weight around on another ally. President Barack Obama told the ultra rightist Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the settlements and agree to a Palestinian state. Mr. Netanyahu who has made a living at denying the Palestinian state appeared at a Israeli University and sheepishly announced that he agreed to a halt in settlements and a Palestinian state. His face saving device was that he added “de militarized” state. This condition of course is pure bluster because once the state has been created no one, not even the IDF can guarantee that no arms will flow there. If such a arms free entity was possible anywhere in the world Gaza would be arms free right now.

For those who worry about the Jewish lobby turning on Mr. Obama, the research tells us that a majority of the Israeli population and a majority of the Jews in America do not support the settlement and do support the roadmap for peace. So Rahm Emanuel has already sounded out the Jewish organization before showing tough love to Israel.

For the first time in history, the Russian government has issued a very pro-Pakistan statement. To make sure all parties got the message it was published in “The Izvestia” the official arm of the government.

Today, despite their hypocritical talk of ‘cooperation’ (by which they mean the shipment of NATO military freight across Russia), the [US-led] coalition is keeping Russia away from Afghanistan as much as possible, even though their own policies in Afghanistan are the worst possible example of a murderous neo-colonial regime.” [8]

Mass killings of the civilian population by the American army such as bombing wedding and funeral processions, extending the fighting to Pakistan and dragging it into Afghanistan’s internal ethnic and political feud – all these and similar actions, which have been without any social or commercial investment in Afghanistan, threaten the whole world, Russia included.

The Afghans, sick and tired of the pointless presence of foreign military forces, have asked Russia to restore its clear-cut peaceful Afghan policy. A delegation of influential Afghan politicians will arrive in Moscow to attend the May 14 Russian-Afghan forum. The group mainly includes Pashtun leaders, who have shaped the country’s political and state backbone for centuries. They are convinced that the way to peace and settlement in Afghanistan will depend on Russia’s policy. “Afghanistan: Russia’s chance to influence global politics again”, Izvestia, May 13, 2009. 9. Ilya Kramnik, “CSTO: joining forces in a crisis”, RIA Novosti, February 5, 2009.

If 911 changed the world, it is true that a few policy decisions by President Barack Obama have transformed the course of historical events. Pakistani attacks on FATA already underway should be seen in the context of world events and the exit strategy from Afghanistan that the President Obama announced while addressing the world’s 1.5 Billion Muslims.

China has asked the US and Bharat to stop the inane activities in Pakistan. Russia has chimed in. With iron clad assurances about the security on the Eastern border, the Indian troop withdrawal from the Pakistan border, and transfer of Su-30s from the Western to the Eastern front in Tezpur (under the guise of threatening China) the Pakistan army decided to move in FATA.

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The operation against Agent M (Bait Mesud) in the heart of the hornet’s is underway. Agent M belongs to the Mehsud tribe which has been at odds with the Waziris since time immoral. The Waziris support the government of Pakistan. Agent M is part of the Mehsud tribe. The announcement by the NWFP Governor Owais Ghani actually announced a fait accompli.

‘The government has decided to launch an operation against militants in Fata. It has been decided that a comprehensive and decisive operation will be launched to eliminate Baitullah Mehsud and dismantle his network,’ …the Taliban’s actions did not match their words...

‘We have repeatedly warned the Mehsud tribe through tribal elders to give up their miscreant activities and advised them not to shelter foreign militants. The government will not tolerate any act against the security of the people’s lives and property at any cost,’…‘They kept on their miscreant activities and continued to harbour terrorists. As a result, many people have lost their lives in suicide attacks in Lahore, Peshawar, Islamabad and today in Dera Ismail Khan…‘

…Details and the strategy of the operation will be decided by the army… Baitullah was the root of the problem and suicide bombers were being trained by him… the army had been ordered to launch a crackdown on militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas…

…it was the responsibility of every government to establish its writ, protect people’s lives and property and maintain law and order…‘Taliban are tarnishing the image of Pakistan and maligning Islam with such actions. They are enemies of Islam and Pakistan who want to destabilise the country…the terrorists were spending about Rs4 billion a year on ration, communication, transport, weapons and salaries of militants. Answering a question about the situation in Malakand division, he said terrorists had been defeated and they were on the run….

…many areas in the region had been cleared after which caravans of displaced people comprising more than 100 trucks had returned to their villages in Kalam over the past few days… the supply of water, electricity and other basic amenities had been restored in Swat and other areas…

The operation against Agent M in the heart of Talib territory is a major departure for the armed forces of Pakistan. However it was felt that Agent M had to be eliminated in order to asphyxiate the TTP in Swat and Dir. North Waziristan’s District capital is Miran Shah a.k.a Miramshah (or Mirumshah in the local dialect). The area is mostly inhabited by the Darwesh Khel better known as Utmanzai Waziris. In south Waziristan Agency, there are three tribes, Ahmedzai Waziris, Mahsud and Burki. The British put them together. The North Waziris are at odds with the Mehsuds of South Waziristan.

The Mehsuds of South Waziristan are now facing the brunt of the attack from the Pakistan army. Caught between the Zain Lashkar and the Pakistan Army is implementing the hammer and anvil.

The purpose of all this hullabaloo is of course to flush out the Bharati agent M or at least his acolytes.