The Indian Air Force unable to minimize the highest Crash rate in the world

Posted on 12 May 2009. Tags: Crash rates, Indian Air force

According to statistical data available from multiple sources the Indian Air Force (IAF) has the dubious distinction of having the highest crash rate in the world. No other Air Foce comes close. Bharat has a tender bid open to purchase 126 brand spanking new Aircrafts from some of the best plane manufacturers in the world. Delhi has been able to maintain the ignominious distinction of having the worst track record in the word. If the current crash rates continue, it can crash all of its new hardware in 5 to 10 years.

An anonymous American analyst said the following “This is really unacceptable. Some heads should roll over this, and frankly this insane crash rate is making the IAF the laughing stock of airforces around the world.”

Some salient facts about the crashes with references.

India, using mostly Russian aircraft, has an accident rate of 6-7 per 100,000 hours flown (compared to 4-5 for all NATO air forces.)
The Indian rate had been over ten for many years, and it is still that high, and often higher, with other nations (including Russia and China), that use Russian aircraft designs.
F-15s and F-16s have an accident rate of 3-4 per 100,000 flight hours.
World Record: 500th Flying coffin crashes
1970-2005: IAF has recorded around 700 crashes since 1970, with around 180 pilots and scores of civilians on the ground losing their lives Publication: The Times of India, Date: Monday, September 4 2006
1970-2005: f the 793 MiG-21s progressively inducted in IAF since 1963, 330 have been lost in accidents. The Times of India, Date: Monday, September 4 2006′

Most of the crashes have been attributed to pilot incompetence and a lack of training. Another major factor pointed out by the Russians is the fact that Bhrat insisted on using poorly manufactured local parts. After several hundred Migs had crashed, the IAF blamed the manufacturer of a faulty fuel pump. According to the IAF the breakdown in 2005 is as follows. 40%; human error (servicing) 2%; technical defects 41%; bird hits 9%; unresolved 6%; and others 2%.

Bangalore: Three Indian Air Force (IAF) test pilots died on Friday when the prototype aircraft Saras of the state-run National Aerospace Laboratories (NAL) crashed near Bidadi, about 30 km from Bangalore, IAF sources said. Sify News. 2009-03-06 18:01:36, Last Updated: 2009-03-06 18:04:26

Recentlythe IAF pilots managed to crash one of the most advanced fighters, the pride and joy of a Resurgent Russia, the Sukhoi 30. Chinese pilots using the same aircraft have hundred of fighters but their track record is a lot better than that of the IAF.

An Indian Air Force pilot was killed and another injured in the first crash of an Su-30 MKI near Pokharan today, prompting the IAF to temporarily ground its most advanced fighter. Indian Express. Manu Pubby, Posted: Friday , May 01, 2009 at 0250 hrs ISTl

An internal investigation of the SU-30 crash will “discover” the following again. Everything will be blamed on “Pilot Error” and the file will be closed, ’till the next crash.

The IAF’s track record in the past decade is dismal by any standards: In the ’90s, according to its own submissions in Parliament, it lost 80 pilots and 185 aircraft. Which makes it almost a squadron a year or a fourth of its entire fleet in the past decade alone. And the estimated loss: Rs 6,800 crore. Sify News. 2009-03-06 18:01:36, Last Updated: 2009-03-06 18:04:26

One of the major problems with the IAF is the lack of trainers. Bharat’s own efforts in developing a trainer have failed miserably. The IAF has been using its Hawks, but the crash problem follws it even on the trainers placing the Air Force between a rock and hard place.

India’s newly acquired fleet of Hawk fighter trainers has been grounded for a second time after one of them crashed at the Bidar airbase on Tuesday afternoon while taking off on a training mission. Both pilots escaped unharmed.

While the entire fleet has been facing problems since the induction in February due to lack of spares, the grounding comes weeks after the IAF discovered that the new aircraft contained parts that were rusted and appeared to be old and used.Screen India

For the second time in a month, a U.S. Air Force F-22 suffered a “Class A” accident (one causing over a million dollars of loss). This one was the result of an F-22 colliding with a Canadian CF-18 while taxiing at Tyndall Air Force Base in Florida. This is the fifth F-22 Class A accident in the last six years. The last one was a crash, in which the pilot was killed. The only other crash did not result in the loss of the pilot.

ItÂ’s easier to have a Class A accident for an F-22, as the construction cost of the aircraft is over $140 million. The damage to the F-22 in the most recent accident was described as minor, but costing just over a million dollars to fix. The damage to the CF-18 will cost much less to repair.

So far, the air force has received 136 F-22s, and the aircraft entered service two years ago. With the recent crash, the F-22 an accident rate is about 7 per 100,000 hours. F-15s and F-16s have an accident rate of 3-4 per 100,000 flight hours. India, using mostly Russian aircraft, has an accident rate of 6-7 per 100,000 hours flown (compared to 4-5 for all NATO air forces.) The Indian rate had been over ten for many years, and it is still that high, and often higher, with other nations (including Russia and China), that use Russian aircraft designs.

The B-52 has the lowest accident rate of (less than 1.5 per 100,000 flying hours) of all American heavy bombers. The B-1s rate is 3.48. Compared to the supersonic B-1 and high-tech B-2, the B-52 is a flying truck. Thus the B-52, despite its age, was the cheapest, safest and most reliable way to deliver smart bombs.

New aircraft always have higher accident rates, which is how many hidden (from the design engineers and test pilots) flaws and technical problems. The F-22 is expected to eventually have an accident rate of 2-3 per 100,000 flight hours. The higher initial accident rate is part of a trend typical of new aircraft. The most recent accident, at Tyndall, appears to be human error or, at most, the failure of one of the less complex systems on the aircraft (like the ground steering or brakes.)

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Combat aircraft are becoming more reliable, even as they become more complex. For example, in the early 1950s, the F-89 fighter had 383 accidents per 100,000 flying hours. A decade later, the rate was in the 20s for a new generation of aircraft. At the time, the F-4, which served into the 1990s, had a rate of under 5 per 100,000 hours. Combat aircraft have gotten more reliable and easier to maintain, despite growing complexity, for the same reason automobiles have. Better engineering, and more sensors built into equipment, makes it easier for the user and maintenance personnel to detect potential problems. Aircraft used the computerized maintenance systems, currently common on new aircraft, long before automobiles got them. Unless you have a much older car that still runs, or a real good memory, you don’t notice the enormous increase in automobile reliability. But older pilots remember, because such changes are a matter of life and death if you make your living driving an aircraft. And commanders know that safer aircraft give them more aircraft to use in combat, and more aircraft that can survive combat damage and keep fighting.

Unmanned aircraft have a much higher rate, which is largely the result of not having a pilot on board. The RQ-1 Predator has an accident rate of about 30 per 100,000 hours. Older model UAVs had much higher rates (up to 363 for the RQ-2A). But engineers are already developing new technology to reduce this loss rate, mainly by making the UAVs themselves “smarter” and better able to operate on their own. Stratfor. F-22 Taken Out By A CF-18 by James Dunnigan, May 11, 2009

The problem of the crashes is not new. The IAF has traditionally been called “The Widow Makers“. It is pedagogical to analyze the information in its historical context.

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Much of the problem relates to the ageing MiG-21 which accounts for 62 per cent of the crashes. The aircraft, which this year completes 39 years with the IAF and still remains its backbone, is beset with problems. All the 22 MiG-21 squadrons are at least two-decades old. A third of the fleet is believed to be grounded for the lack of confidence in their ability to keep airborne without a glitch. The IAF loses one MiG fighter every 2,500 flight hours, making it one of the most vulnerable machines in service with any force in the world.

Most MiG-21s crash because of engine burnouts immediately after take-off and stress fractures to the airframe. The burnouts are often a result of poor engine maintenance and inadequate supply of spare parts especially of the critical blades of the engine that provide the thrust. But as a senior officer commanding MiG-21 squadrons points out, “Since nearly 22 of the IAF’s 35 squadrons comprise of the MiG-21s, it is bound to reflect in the accident rate as well. Do not forget that as many as 17 Jaguars have crashed and we have only four Jaguar squadrons in the air force.”

Part of the blame for the high rate of crashes lies with the Ministry of Defence (MOD) and the IAF. They did not act fast enough to induct the planned MiG-21 upgrade which was expected to enter service after a comprehensive refit in 1999. The refit has now been delayed by at least three years — first, because the government could not decide the contract between Israel and Russia; and secondly, owing to lethargy on the part of the Russians. Instead of upgrading the entire MiG-21 Bis fleet, all that has been achieved so far is flight-testing of two MiG-21s in Russia.

Ageing MiGs are only one aspect of the problem. “There are two reasons for the IAF’s poor air safety record,” says Air Commodore (retd) Jasjit Singh, director IDSA. “The first is a 16-year delay in procurement of the Advance Jet Trainer (AJT). The second is the consistently poor quality of spare parts that are needed to keep the fighter planes airworthy.” With the AJT absent, Indian fighter pilots do not get sufficient training to equip them to move from basic aircraft, such as the Kiran Mark II, to the most advanced ones like the Mirage 2000.

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The IAF depends on the oldest version of the MiG-21 — the MiG-21 FL — for training but found the craft unsuitable because it is essentially a fighter-interceptor and does not incorporate any features of a trainer jet. Analysts say that bad training results in fatal errors of judgement at high speeds and these often lead to crashes. Says former air chief S.K. Kaul, “The government’s lack of action on the AJT is nothing short of crass disregard for the force’s vital needs.” Even the present chief, Air Chief Marshal A.Y. Tipnis, at a commanders’ conference in June 1999 blamed poor training for the high number of air crashes.

A decision on the AJT though may at last be on hand. A French team visited Delhi last week and an English one is expected over the next two weeks to hammer out a deal. Even when the AJT is acquired indications are that India may go in for only 60 such aircraft. Air forces with comparable force structures, such as the UK and France, have opted for 150 aircraft, including about one squadron in reserve. So the problem of lack of training may persist.

Another major cause for the alarmingly high rate of IAF accidents is the lack of spare parts. In the mid ’90s, a committee appointed to look into the air crashes pointed out this problem and pinned part of the blame on the spares made by the public-sector Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. As for the spares from Russia, sources say that though they are now supplied on time, the costs since 1991 have skyrocketed, in some instances by as much as 400 per cent. Given the fact that 70 per cent of Indian fighters are of Russian origin this has a negative impact on procurement of crucial components.

Each of the major reasons for the increasing number of crashes – poor training, ageing fleet, pilot error, defective spare parts – are problems that can be addressed if the IAF and the mod get down to brasstacks quickly. Otherwise, most of the fighters would have to be nicknamed “widow makers”.Courtesy: India Today [7 February 2000]. IAF: The Widow Makers. By Ninad D. Sheth

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