Nuclear flashpoint: How India lost Nepal to China

Categorized | Current Affairs, India CA, Nepal CA

Nuclear flashpoint: How India lost Nepal to China

Posted on 07 May 2009. Tags: China, Nepal, Nepal Maoists, Nepal's Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, or Prachanda (“fierce”)

Anti-Indian Maoists in Nepal raise ante. India seems to have lost the battle for influence in Nepal. Once the Big Brother that controlled every aspect of of Nepali life, Delhi has little influence on decision making in Kathmandu. When Delhi tries to force its will, the Nepalis don’t listen. Nepali Maoists fought a long and protracted war of independence from Indian interference. The people of Nepal won, and put the Pro-Chinese Maoists in power. Nepalese struggle for freedom despite Indian meddling

..a leading US thinktank concluded that Nepal’s political problems could create trouble for India while being beneficial for China which has continued to expand its influence into Nepal.

“China is more interested in preventing India from monopolising foreign influence in Kathmandu, while New Delhi would rather have Beijing stay out of India’s perceived sphere of influence,” said Stratfor said in its analysis of the latest development in Nepal. Economic Times. India Times

India is now trying to put in place a pro-Indian government and keep the Maoists out of power. This could be very dangerous, because it could lead of widespread Anti-Indian riots. Already the Indian companies working Nepal face an uphill battle. Various project have been put on hold and trade is in jeopardy.

Delhi is surrounded by problems of its own making. It is hated in South Asia for good reason. The “Indian Union” has had wars with all her neighbors, and it constantly interferes in the affairs of all of them. It calls all of them “failed states” proposing a raison d’etre under which it can absorb them into this huge behemoth called “Akhand Bharat“–an land mass which encompasses most of Asia– from Kabul in the West to a mystical land called Raj Kilhani, which is east of Bali in Indonesia. This is the “Bharat” that religious Bharatis dream of.

The ongoing political strife in nearby Nepal threatens to affect Indian companies working out of Nepal while India Inc continues to fight the global downturn. Hindustan Times

The Sri Lankans hate the Indians for supporting th the LTTE terrorists. The Bangladeshis are fed up with the “Rakhi Bahni” which tried to rule Bangladesh under an Indian general. The Burmese would rather be isolated than deal with a Delhi bent upon making it a protectorate, The Maldives almost drowning don’t want a lifeboat from Bharat. The Chinese have huge boundary disputes with Delhi. In the early days of independence Delhi thought that it could grab Tibet and thus bifurcate China into small pieces, perpetuating the colonial division of China. Mao Zedung would have none of that and took over Tibet, Aksai Chin and told Delhi to lay off Tibet. Then of course there are the Pakistanis, a huge impediment to Bharati hegemonic designs in West Asia.

India is walking a diplomatic tightrope as Nepal tries to form a new government, aware that excessive meddling in its traditional “backyard” could risk pushing the fragile Himalayan democracy closer to China.

India has always seen Nepal as part of its strategic sphere of influence, but that has been challenged in the past year since the election of Maoist Prime Minister Prachanda, who before he resigned last week had edged closer to Beijing. India treads fine line in Nepal’s political crisis By Krittivas Mukherjee. Friday, 08 May, 2009 | 02:12 AM PST KATHMANDU:

Even though Nepal is Hindu, the people of Nepal have been struggling to get away from the yolk of Delhi. For years, Delhi supported the brutal monarchy which had signed “the treaty of peace of friendship” which made Nepal a protectorate of Delhi. An insurgency ensued for decades. The Maoists looked towards Beijing. Nepal’s former Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, or Prachanda (“fierce”) has publicly stated that is policy would be to equidistant his country between Delhi and Beijing. This sort of talk keeps analysts up at night. A neutral Nepal gives huge headaches to Indian defense analysts. A Pro-Chinese Nepal is catastrophic for Delhi. A Nepal which is more friendly to China eliminates Delhi’s access to Tibet, and puts pressure on Sikkim and Bhutan. A hostile Nepal places the Indian union in jeopardy because it is a Damocles sword on Delhi. At the drop of a hat Nepal could choke Indian access to the seven Indian states in the Northeast which are already up in arms against Delhi.

General Katawal deserved the boot. A devotee of Nepal’s deposed king, Gyanendra, whose office was abolished last year to draw the Maoists into Nepal’s first post-war election, he has never hidden his hatred for his former foes in a decade-long conflict…The general’s insubordination conceals a more serious disagreement: over how to dispose of the Maoists’ former fighters. Under the terms of the peace agreement, negotiated between the Maoists and their political opponents under India’s aegis, some of the 23,000-odd corralled must be recruited into the army. The instrument of a power grab by Gyanendra in 2005, the army must meanwhile be made less elitist and more accountable. But General Katawal, with India’s blessing, has resisted these reforms. The Economist. How fierce will the Maoists be now? May 7th 2009 | KATHMANDU

From The Economist print edition

Its payback time for Delhi. During the Beijing Olympics India had tried to create problems for China in Tibet. After messing with the rising Northern Red Dragon to the North, in Tibet, India will face blowback from the Chinese in Sikkim Bhutan and all along the Naxalite belt in Central and Northeastern India. Already Bihar and Orissa are up in arms against the central authority of New Delhi.

Nepali Maoist supporters, Kathmandu

India’s Security nightmares: Naxalites, Mioram, Tamilland, Khalistan, 7 sisters of Northeast, 450 million Untouchable Dalits, Kashmiris, 150 million Muslims The Maoists recently quit the government protesting Indian interference. Peace is in jeopardy in the Himalayan state. The issue–getting rid of a pro-Indian general who had refused to listen to the Pro-Chinese Maoist rime Minister. The Maoists are a huge migraine headache for Delhi. The Maoists support the Naxalites which control 40% of the Indian landmass. Once in power the Maoists continue their links with the Naxalites. Red Nepal: Clear and present danger to India

the Himalayan nation might set up economic zones along the border where business houses, including Indian corporate giants, could set up shop to process goods, including semi-finished or knocked down products from China.

Nepal’s exports to India fetch just about 40 billion Nepalese rupees (Rs 1 = 1.6 Nepalese rupee), compared with imports from India worth 80 billion Nepalese rupees.

Imports from India include petroleum products, medicines, plants and machinery.

The officials said the new treaty was also in response to huge concessions which China was giving.

China was not only offering better trade terms but also finalising a treaty, which would respect Nepalese borders and promised not to attack the country. In return, Nepal would not allow its territory to be used by Tibetan emigres for anti-China activities.

The pact with China — dubbed the peace and friendship treaty — would have been signed by the Prachanda government but had to be cancelled after the constitutional crisis broke out in Nepal.

Most of the investments from India, which account for 44 per cent of FDI in Nepal, have been in ready-made garments, hotels, hospitals and food and beverages. The Telegraph India

The current crisis in Nepal arose because India tried to interfere with the decisions made by the Maoist Prime Minister of Nepal Prachanda. PM Prachandra had apparently fired the pro-Indian Chief of Army staff, and India tried to reverse that decision. Prachandra resigned.

Indian Cracks visible: Naxalite insurgency exposes deep cavities in India India Balkanizing: Naxal insurgency widening cracks into deep abyss

Former guerrilla leader Prachanda quit on Monday after his dismissal of the army chief was blocked, sparking a political crisis and dealinga blow to Nepal’s peace process after a decade-long civil war that saw the Maoists lay down their arms.

Prachanda blamed “external forces” for his downfall, a likely reference to India and a sign of a growing backlash against its bigger and more powerful neighbour.Reuters. Dawn. India treads fine line in Nepal’s political crisis By Krittivas Mukherjee. Friday, 08

The Maoists are mad at Delhi for the interference. If India continues its diktat, the Maoists could retreat to the mountains and begin the war once again. China has a lot of influence in Nepal.

India, aware the former rebels are still the main political force with 40 per cent of seats in parliament, could look for a counterweight to any pro-China tilt in a ruling coalition.“India has to do business with the Maoists, so they will have to do a nice balancing act – not anger the Maoists while backing the forces it thinks are favourable to it,” said Lok Raj Baral, head of the Nepal Centre for Strategic Studies think tank.

“The Maoists know anti-India rhetoric now has quite a bit of appeal among the Nepali people. If India is perceived by the Maoists as too intruding it could push them more towards China.” Reuters. Dawn. India treads fine line in Nepal’s political crisis By Krittivas Mukherjee. Friday, 08

India has lost Nepal and is trying to get it back. The clear andpresent danger fro Bharatextends beyond the threat from the Maoists in Nepal. The fact remains that New Delhi for the past several decades has opposed the Maoist guerrillas fighting a complacent, corrupt and complaint pro-Indian appendage of a government in Khatmandu. Now New Delhi’s enemies are in power.A ‘Great Game’

Landlocked Nepal depends on India for trade and crucial supplies of food and fuel, the two nations share a Hindu culture and many Nepalis cross over the border to work in India.

The problem for New Delhi extends beyond Khatmandu and Nepal. The Maoist victory in Nepal serves as a lightning rod to the Maoist and Naxalites that are active in more than a dozen Indian states–from the Seven sisters in the Northeast, all the way down to central India and thenhooking up with the Tamil Nadus. The Naxalite insurrection in India has been named the number one security threat to the union right after Kashmir and theNortheast secessionist movement. India surrounded on all sides with insurgencies. India has horrible relations with all her neighbors-stealing territory from all of them. Much to the chagrin of Bharat, even Bhutan is now negotiating with China directly in the Chumbi valley.

“As usual, India interfered,” said Maoist party foreign department head Chandra Prakash Gajurel, adding that the Indian ambassador to Nepal met Prachanda several times to ask him not to fire the army chief. “We are not sure what India’s agenda is.”

That agenda may be warding off China. Some analysts say Beijing has encouraged a nationalist front to counter India.

Those fears gained ground in New Delhi after Prachanda travelled to China last year for the Olympics closing ceremony, departing from a tradition which has seen incoming Nepali leaders make New Delhi their first foreign port of call.

India has also nervously watched China’s rapid inroads into Nepal with plans of a rail service from Lhasa to the Nepal border. A dozen high-level Chinese delegations, including two military teams, have visited Nepal since last year.

“The increasing level of bilateral engagement also indicates that China is wooing Nepal as a new strategic partner,” Nihar Nayak wrote in a recent paper for the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.

Chinese interest in Nepal mainly centres on containing pro-Tibet politics. The battle is also for control of key passes in the Himalayas used by Tibetan separatists to go to India. Reuters. Dawn. India treads fine line in Nepal’s political crisis By Krittivas Mukherjee. Friday, 08

It used to be that the Naxalites from Andhra Pradesh used to support the Maoists of Nepal. Now that the Maoists have their own state, the trail of support will run both ways. The Nepalese revolution in eliminating the pro-Indian King will provide succor to the 89 insurgencies raging in the poor and disenfranchised sectors of “India.”

RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) manipulation of the Nepali elections failed. The unexpected results of the Maoist landslide has baffled the Indian establishment. Alarmed Indian politicians have taken a deep breath and tried to spin the serious situation on their Northern border with tall tales of democracy and respecting the electorate.