President Obam’a advisor Bruce Reidel has it only partially right, its not just AfPak, its the AfPakUzKaTurkKyr problem. Chaudhry Rehmat Ali described the link of the Central Asia Republics to Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 1940s. It part of a mosaic. It’s like a multifaceted orchestra. Tune one andthe other one goes out of sync. Colonialism, Communism and the Crusades (both old and new) have tried to manufacture new realities based on the results of the World Wars.
There are many poltergeists in the Khyber and many hobgoblins in the Amu Darya. For years we have shed light on the pull andpush theory. Can the $80 Billion Think Tank industry not comprehend the simple truths described by Peter Senge in his seminal book “The 5th Discipline“. They theory goes as follows. When the Police cracks down on drug dealers on 42nd street, the drug dealing does not disappear, it simply moved to 52nd street or getsdispersed over a bigger area out of reach of the police raids. Similarly when the US bombs the insurgents in East Afghanistan, it is but obvious that they will find shelter and hideouts onthe Durand Line and beyond. As the US drones bomb FATA, areas in Pakistan are affected destabilizing parts of the NWFP.
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There has been much discussion of dictators and democracy in Pakistan. Amazingly the US media and the American government doesn’t seem at all bothered by the excesses committed by dictators in Central Asia.
Mr. Islam Karimov is one of the worst dictators on the planet who boils his opponent in water. Uzbek President Islam Karimov is is scared out of his wits that the war in Pakistan will spill over to the other “tans”. He barely survives the perpetual onslaught of his own insurgents. By bringing money from Moscow and Washington he thinks he can survive popular dissent. A South Korean deal with Mr. Karimov provides him with a fig leaf to hidehis double dealing with the USA while promising Russia that he has kicked the US out of a base. With assistance from SouthKorea, the US has reestablished a strategic presence in Uzbekistan - kind of. The Uzbek Korean agreement on US access to Navoi airport gives Karimov the plausible deniability in front of Moscow that he has cut a deal with the United States. In fact he has, but not directly. Washington will play along because it gets what it needs – a transit base which can be used as a replacement for the lost American base in Kyrgyzstan scheduled to close this summer.
While the schemes with Washington and Moscow may put some cash in the pocket of the dictator, the fact remains that the US and Russian presence will act like honey to attract the flies of the IMU, Uzbeks and other militants from across the Amu Darya.
The Chinese are already moving to successfully lobby the new Turkmen president, the spectacularly named Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov, to speed up the construction of the Mother of All Pipelines. This Turkmen-Kazakh-China Pipelineistan corridor from eastern Turkmenistan to China’s Guangdong province will be the longest and most expensive pipeline in the world, 7,000 kilometers of steel pipe at a staggering cost of $26 billion. When China signed the agreement to build it in 2007, they made sure to add a clever little geopolitical kicker. The agreement explicitly states that “Chinese interests” will not be “threatened from [Turkmenistan's] territory by third parties.” In translation: no Pentagon bases allowed in that country. Wednesday, May 13, 2009 by TomDispatch.com. Pipelineistan in Conflict Blue Gold, Turkmen Bashes, and Asian Grids by Pepe Escobar
The hysterical noises out of Washington about the “TTP” in Swat did not translate into panic in Moscow or Beijing, rather bothofthem worked behind the scenes. Beijing invited the Jamat e Islami to build relations with a section of the society in Pakistan.
The economic decline is increasingly being translated into military weakness, which will affect US military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. With mercenary armies increasingly employed, the military is inspired not so much by the image of the flag as the image of cash. And this is increasingly short in supply. The endless redeployment of the same soldiers also leads to poor moral.
While the US is in the process of decline, it has considerably reduced its tensions with Russia. The US-China relationship is also much better than in 2001, when there was the serious incident over the American spy plane that collided with a Chinese fighter over China’s air space.
The reason for Russia and China’s concern over Central Asia is not US might, but actually its weakness. Both nations fear that the coming surge of US troops in Afghanistan might be the last desperate attempt to turn the tide before departure, which would lead to the spread of Muslim insurgencies not just in Pakistan but in Central Asia. This increased spread of Muslim insurgents could not only disrupt the gas and oil supply from the region, which is essential for both China and Russia, but create problems in their respective Muslim-dominated areas. Asia Times. China, Russia face up to Taliban threat By Dmitry Shlapentokh
After the October revolution of 1917, Lenin and later Stalin forcibly inculcated the Central Asian Republics of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan. In the 90s all of them became independent.It has been been decades, but the entire mosaic of the “Tans” cannot be solved in compartments.
The Ferghana Valley of Uzbekistan has many links to the South Asian Subcontinent. Zahiruddin Babur, the founder of the Mughal Empire was born in Ferghana and lies buried in Kabul. One reason While the offensive goes one, one of the factors effecting situation is the presence of hardened foreign fighters. The Uzbeks have been present in Pakistan and Afghanistan. These Uzbeks came to Pakistan during the 80s and some of them got married and stayed in FATA. They continued to come down. One reason they came down was because of the pressure on the IMU.
- Uzbeks to Pakistan Pakistan Afghan map
The IMUwas a looseband of idealists who first wanted independence from Russia and then wanted to merge all the “tans” together in a Muslim Commonwealth. Uzbeks Juma Namangani, and Tohir Yuldashev were inspired by Babur. In 1998, they formed The Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), a militant group that wants to eliminate Soviet and Russian influences from Uzbekistan and the other former Central Asian republics. The IMU objective is to overthrow President Islam Karimov of Uzbekistan, and to create an Islamic state.
In 1999 and 2000 the IMU launched a series of audacious raids into Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan from Tajikistan and Taliban-controlled areas of northern Afghanistan. These raids alarmed Russia and China and they formed the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These raids also alarmed the USA and are considered one of the main reasons for the devastating attack on Afghanistan
The IMU and the Taliban were on the verge of eliminating the Northern Alliance which was supported by India, Russia and Iran. In 2001 Afghan bombing started. The IMU was specifically targeted and dispersedinto the countrysidealong with the Taliban. Namangani was killed but. Yuldeshev and a large number of fighters escaped
After controlling most of Afghanistan, the insurgents target supplies from Uzbekistan and the Central Asia Republics 
Uzbekistan pressured the IMU is scared of Taliban reprisals on supplies to Kabul Anti-Occupation forces choke US Afghan war
Reality check on War in Afghanistan
We seem to have come full circle to the situation in the 80s. Only the occupation forces have a different flag. In the 80s, it was the Soviets and Russian fighting internal rebellion and external forces. Today Russia and China fear that despite the bluster from Washington the war in Afghanistan is coming to an end. Pakistan Assembly: War not in its interest-Want it stopped!
The IMU has made some statements against the Pakistan government according the Adnkronos International, which is an Italian news agency formed in 2003 to report news of the Middle East. The IMUs support for the Red Mosque confirms foreign connections to the Red Mosque terrorists.
Islamic movement of Uzbekistan and Uzbek militants in North Waziristan, Qadri Tahir Yaldeshiv, in a video message, according to Adnkronos International. He also urged Muslims to avenge the Lal Masjid operation in July 2007 that left more than 100 militants and hardcore madrassa students dead, the German news agency said.Yaldshiv also talked about the need for strict Sharia law in Pakistan.
The implications of the IMU activity in Pakistan
The Grand Bargain? Pakistan key to Afghan Great Game
As the Uzbeksfacepressure in Pakistan they will either return to Uzbekistan or find safe havens in Afghanistan. Facing the Khyber poltergeist & Ganges hobgoblin
Russia is increasingly concerned with the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, which led to its attempt to build a sort of united force with Central Asian states as well as other former republics of the Soviet Union, such as Belarus. It soon became obvious that those arrangement will have little value.
Alexander Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader, stated that he would not send troops outside Belarus, while Uzbekistan’sPresident Islam Karimovlostinterest in military cooperation withRussiaearlyon. The same seems to be true with Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon.
Despite the country’s vulnerability due to its proximity to Afghanistan, the Tajikpressincreasingly presents Russia in an unfriendly light. Not only is Russia accused of sending back Tajikmigrant workers, but also of not providing Tajikistan with enough economic assistance. Russia is also accused of fomenting the Tajik civil war in the 1990s. Asia Times. China, Russia face up to Taliban threat By Dmitry Shlapentokh
The Asian Pipeline grid puts Pakistan as a central node in both the TAPI and the IPI pipelines. In 2008, despite huge opposition from Washington, Iran and Pakistandecided to move forward with the pipeline without India. The Turkmenistan Afghanistan Pakistan (TAP) pipeline is also in the works. The key letter missing from both of them is “C”. if the TAP become TAP+China and the IP becomes IP+China, this will integrate Central Asia as never before.
Pipelines through Turkey Iran Pakistan Pipeline 
Blaming Pakistan won’t help the war on terror. Reengineering all of Central Asia is not within the scope of the current American project. Giving the US some sort of face saving victory is. However hard “they” try, the “compensating feedback” pulls the “tans” together.
