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The ides of March brought the news for Afghanistan. The last days of March will be known as the week when Mr. Obama made his greatest blunder. Instead of beating about the Bush, he could have proven his moral authority by declaring a clear withdrawal date from Kabul. Instead he hid his “Exit Strategy” in bluster. To further prove his manhood he let loose the dogs of war–the generals who began blaming anyone and everyone for their own failures.
David Obey, the chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, has given the administration a one-year deadline on Afghanistan; this tells me that House Democrats could turn on that war–and U.S. involvement in the region, generally–if public support for it slips, and if significant gains aren’t made. May 11 2009, 10:25 am by Chris Good, Zardari: U.S. Shares Blame For Taliban Threat.
No one is fooled. Everyone who counts knows that President Obama will leave Afghanistan before 2011.
Justifying the Banality of a brutalOccupation in Iraq and Afghanistan: The Thinktanksattempt to complete the circle of complicity between a sycophantic press, and a non-inquisitive servile public. The nation is forced to accept the only argument that it is being repeatedly inundated with . In the year, 2011, the Brits and the Canadians will leave Afghanistan. The challenge for General Mullin, General Patraeus, and President Obama is to use the 20,000 additional troops to retake 80% of Afghanistan. But wait, President Obama has already abandoned that the greater goal of making Afghanistan as a democracy–euphemism for “taking back Afghanistan and placing it under Mr. Karzai’s control”. Can the US carry on the battle without the Britishers helping them out. It is possible but not probable. The Britishers work in tandem with the Americans on most international issues. However they work a bit differently. The Britishers know that they have lost the battle in Afghanistan. The “nation of shopkeepers” understands that they have been licked, so they have announced a date for withdrawal. This gives them the fig leaf that they need to get out of the “graveyard of empires“. Mr. Obama should have followed suit, but he could not, perhaps because of domestic pressures. Mr. Obama possibly did not want to be blamed as the President who lost the war in Afghanistan. He probably did not want to be known as the President when the policy to “Cut and Run” was imposed. It is exactly this type of thinking that perpetuates perpetual mimetic war.
Mr. Obama had the opportunity to take Mr. Bush’s war and turn it around. He was not married to the Afghan war. He could have used the changed circumstances as an excuse to end the war. He however was unable to extricate America from the war. Haroon Raja in an excellent article on the subject of US defeat in Afghanistan defines the horror of the war for American soldiers and the beating that have taken over the past seven years.
It is now over seven years that the occupation forces are in battle with the rag-tag Taliban and al-QaedainAfghanistan but despite best efforts they have been unable to defeat them. This is in spite of the fact that the US and allied forces have applied massive military force without caring for human and material losses particularly the innocent civilians. Massive funds have also flowed in to carry out development works, human resource development and uplift of education sector to bolster the Afghan regime led by Hamid Karzai and to solidify US military base on permanent footing.
All told, 42 other countries have contributed their troops to assist USA in its efforts to tame militant elements in Afghanistan. Besides the military presence, six intelligence agencies are working hand in glove to weaken the resistance of the Taliban and al-Qaedaand to carry out sabotage and subversion activities in the region with its chief focus on Pakistan. The US is spending over one billion dollars monthly in Afghanistan. The two-front war on terror has brought the US under $10 trillion national debt. In Afghanistan US-Natoforceshave lost over 1100 soldiers of which 730 are US soldiers. Despite such colossal efforts to bring about stability and economic prosperity in war-torn Afghanistan, the results are far from satisfactory. One reason for this is prolonged devastation of the country first by Soviet Union followed by internecine infighting within the country from 1989 to 1995 and then by USA. It had also been subjected to cruel sanctions by USA from 1996 onwards when the Taliban ruled the roost.
The conquerors have belatedly come to realise that they have not only failed to curb militancy but also are in no position to win the war despite having sunk colossalamountin fighting futile war on terror. Not only militancy has spread far and wide in Afghanistan, Islamic militants are active throughout the Islamic world from Indonesia to Kazakhstan and Morocco to Turkey. Even from within USA and Europe, conversion to Islam and recruitment into al-Qaeda is accelerating. Futile war on terror has started to have an adverse impact on US’s overall economy and some of the leading US banks have become bankrupt.
Collateral damage to innocent civilians in Afghanistan is one of major factors that has provoked anti-US sentiments and ignited sympathy for Taliban. Even funeral processions and wedding parties have been bombed. The US pilots consider a mission accomplished if 1-2 militants are killed along with 50-60 innocent people. Afghan people who were wary of the Taliban are now flocking towards them in huge numbers. They have seen the ugly side of the Americans who kill and maim Afghans with ferocity and without any qualm of conscience. The Stateman.The US is losing war in Afghanistan, Asif Haroon Raja, The writer is an independent security, defence and political analyst. Email: ah.raja@yahoo.com
The rising decibel of American officials against the Pakistani ISI is a reflection of the frustrations of defeat and hard deadlines. With its power, electronics and power, the Generals of the American Army stand naked in front of the world. The bottom line is that the satellites, the drones and the daisycutters did not eliminate the resistance in Afghanistan. It must be frustrating that all the kings horses and the all the kings men could not put Afghanistan back together. The aggravation of the Generals in Afghanistan can be gauged by their inability to find alternate routes to Kabul, and their failure to impose their own will–like they did in Germany and Japan. The American War College teaches them to wish for toys, but doesn’tto show them how to win friends and influence people. Perhaps all of them need Steve Covey seminar and Miss Manner workshops.
When Freedom fighters turn terrorist
Selective Amnesia of Americans: Pakistan is the most mistreated friend in the world
Obama’s new strategy as confused as Bush’s was inept
There is much to learn about the the attitude of the Americans with ref. to Afghanistan and the ISI. It was pedagogical to note the statements by General Mullen who wanted the ISI not to worry about India or Afghanistan. It is this type of stupidity coming from American officials that creates mistrust and Anti-Americanism in Pakistan. This Anti-Americanism then translates into frustration which is responsible for much the militancy.
There are still major areas of friction, especially regarding the so-called strategic assets between Pakistan and the US that will have to be reconciled. The US has zero tolerance for militant groups that are led by former resistance leaders Haqqaniand Hikmatyar whereas Pakistan Army and intelligence agencies are allegedly supportive of them for their own reasons. Pakistan will have to take a clear stand on the issue to develop greater confidence and credibility. If it is true that our military maintains contacts with these groups for keeping the channels open than it can perhaps use its influence to initiate dialogue between them and the Americans. We also have to be clear about our nationalobjectives. Lack of intellectualand ideological clarity can be highly damaging when the problems faced by a country are so complex and deep-rooted. The News. The writer is a retired lieutenant-general. Email: talat@comsats.net.pk
Beyond US withdrawal from Afghanistan 
2009: Obama’s South Asian policy: A Marshall Plan for AfPak
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Obama has vowed to step up fight against extremism and a new strategy is underway to defeat extremists in Afghanistan-Pakistan. Although Obamahasdecided to beef up US military strength in Afghanistan by another 30000 from Iraq and 17000 are likely to arrive shortly, NATO allies are keen to withdraw their troops from Afghanistan rather than sending reinforcement. The British and NATO commanders in Afghanistan have opined that war in Afghanistan cannot be won through military means alone and have strongly advocated political settlement.
According to a survey, some 60% of 3400 serving and retired senior officers of US military have stated that the US army afflicted with mental and physiologicaldiseasesis much weaker than it was six years ago. Russian military officers who had taken part in the Afghan war in 1980s are of the view that if Soviet Union with 160000 Soviet troops and 100,000 Afghan militia, enjoying the distinct advantage of geographic contiguity and with unaffected supply line could not defeat the Mujahideen, how could USA and NATO with 66000 troops and 75000 Afghan troops hope to win the war even if the troop level is beefed up? Former US Gen McNeillstatedthat 400,000 troops were needed to quell insurgency in Afghanistan. These ground realities have compelled the US leaders to rethink their strategy and to open dialogue with the Taliban. However, the option of use of force has not been given up. The Stateman.The US is losing war in Afghanistan, Asif Haroon Raja, The writer is an independent security, defence and political analyst. Email: ah.raja@yahoo.com
The rude Generals can hurl insults at the ISI, but they have not been able to do anything about the enemy under their own noses. They have to find someone to blame. First they blamed the corrupt Mr. Hamid Karzai, they then blamed the ineffective NATO forces. Now they blame the ISI and Pakistan. All this blame game doesn’t fool the American people. According to the latest polls, about half are now questioning the Afghan war and the reason why America is spending Billions over there. Like the ephemeral WMDs, the US Generals have been unable to find Al-Qaeda. Destabilizing Pakistan has not given them the gains that they seek in the Hindu Kush. Letting India loose on Islamabad has not helped them in the Khyber.
Obama’s “Surgers” vs. “Exiters”: Exit strategy now or scrambled hasty retreat later
Fixing Afpak: Inability to define exit strategy spells inevitable US military catastrophy in Kabul
Like an alcoholic, the US Administration does not have the ability to get beyond the paradigm laid out by the previous administration. One cannot take the administration through 12 steps. While President Obama’s bluster may have been able to fool the servile US press, most analysts saw through the rhetoric and know that he was making a speech announcing the Exit Strategy from Pakistan, without actually mentioning the word “Exit Strategy”. The first step towards curing alcoholism is admission that one is an alcoholic. Obviously Mr. Obama has a long way to go.
It is high time that the Americans came out of their world of fancy and started appreciating ground realities more dispassionately and objectively rather than relying on the worn-out principle of might is right. By repeatedly saying that we are winning, they cannot convert defeat into victory. They cannot ignore the fact that their casualty rate in Afghanistan in 2008 was more than the total period from November 2001-2007. 72% of Afghanistan is now under the control of Taliban – up from 54% a year ago. Apart from their firm control in southern and eastern Afghanistan, their fighters have made deep inroads into western and north-western provinces north of Kabul. Even Kabul is besieged and out of four outlets, three are now compromised by Taliban activity. Only the northern road leading to Panjsher valley is safe for movement. 90 out of 400 districts of Afghanistan have been identified as high-risk areas. The Taliban are focussing their activities towards the main supply route through the south of country as well as all other supply routes. Supplies through Pakistan are getting complicated due to retaliations by the militants because of drone attacks. Taliban and al-Qaeda have joined hands to wage a joint struggle and have become more organised and stronger.
Devoid of air support, gunship helicopters, tanks, artillery support and electronic means, the operatives of two radical forces imbued with religious fervour and righteousness of their cause, are fighting an irregular warfare withpunyresources with remarkable resilience and success. One of the principle reasons of their success is that the occupation forces have failed miserably in winning the support of the people. Taliban commander Mullah Omar is still a fugitive and is managing the affairs of the Taliban from his unknown hideout. Likewise, the leader of al-Qaeda Osama bin Laden has so far not been nabbed in spite of massive manhunt and having combed the world.
The Taliban adopt asymmetric measures to offset NATO technical superiority. They do not have to win battles; they only need to keep resisting, tire out and exhaust their opponents and cripple their economy. Gradually the focus of raids, bombings and kidnappings has shifted from outer perimeter towards the inner most perimeters around the centre of gravity residing in Kabul. Severaldaringraids have been conducted inside the Kabul city. Besides the Taliban and al-Qaedaoperatives, criminal elements have mushroomed giving severe jolts to security situation and causing migraine to ISAFforces. Economic costs are becoming prohibitive and US economy is in recession with little hope of recovery. The global recession has hit the economies of European countries as well. Time is not far when NATO troops would start withdrawing at their own and US troops would seek safe passage to exit.
USA can never hope to win war in Afghanistan if it sticks to flawed policies of Bush which failed to achieve any of the stated objectives and caused worst damage to USA. Obama and his team will have to think of novel ways based on sincerity of purpose and not on deception to avoid humiliating withdrawalas in the case of USSR. It has tried the instrument of force without achieving any results. Troop surge or creating a wedge between the extremist and moderate Pashtuns will not work in Afghanistan since time is on the side of the Taliban. Instead of reinforcing failure, why not try to win the hearts and minds of the people of Afghanistan. Stick should be sheathed and only carrots in plenty offered to win over the Afghans who have suffered hugely for decades.
The Stateman.The US is losing war in Afghanistan, Asif Haroon Raja, The writer is an independent security, defence and political analyst. Email: ah.raja@yahoo.com
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