Lockheed's song & dance: Delhi faces "Bait and switch"-F-16s for F-35

Posted on 09 February 2009. Tags: (Sweden), Boeing' F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (USA), Dassault Aviation Rafale (France), Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 52+/60 (USA), Mikoyan MiG-35 Fulcrum, Saab Gripen

Bharat is in the horns of a dilemma; a young urban elite, restive and Westernized wants to move at the speed of light; a humongous rural population, lethargic and ensnared in rituals, ignorance, superstitions and penury sill living the way they did several centuries ago; a vibrant and triumphalist media that is pushing the country to new vistas–real and imaginary; a nationalistic and religious movement that is forcing the country into xenophobia; a military steeped in Soviet hardware unable to produce products and services that could elevate the standing of the population; a think tank industry that already feels that it has reached a certain status in the world and demands its rightful place on the planet. Bollywood feeds the media, which feeds the thinktank industry which raises the expectations of the elite. The general population is lost and unable to run for the ephemeral mirage identified by the media, Bollywood and the elite.

A penury stricken population burdened with caste, communalism, and a huge divide between the rich and the poor is unable to break out the mold and join the 21st century. The Urban elite have broken the mold and want to compete with the best and the brightest. The religious fervor pushes them towards nationalism.

The dilemma is as follows. The country long ignored by the Superpowers has no say in running the world. The military cannot cope with the requests of the elite. The manufacturing sector cannot come up with the solutions. So to appease the elite, the military is requesting huge chunks of money and buy what it cannot create.

This is where Aero India 2009 comes in. The tender bid request the world best to bid on 126 planes. The problem is $10 Billion Dollars doesn’t go very far for purchasing the best. A new F-22 Raptor costs about $300 million a peace. Japan has the money and wherewithal to order about a hundred of these. It also has the clout to negotiate the price to about $300 million a pop. Japan also wants the F-35s.

Not to be deterred, Bharat has a shopping list. So it invited Lockheed Martin to the table. Like most commercial enterprises, Lockheed will show its sexiest merchandise wrapped in eye candy and huge kickbacks. So how does Bharat marry its shopping list with what is available?

F-35A #AA-1We are not sure why the F-35 and the F-22 are being discussed as part of this MMRCA bid. They are not part of it. In some marketing obfuscation Lockheed showed the F-35 with the tri-colors painted on it, but did not even show the F-16s.

Lockheed has a solution. Instead of buying the F-22s and the F-35s, purchase the F-16s. In America they call it “Bait and Switch“. Of course the Lockheed company line says “the F-16s are just as good as the F-22s and the F-35s“. Defying logic and gravity some reports in the Bharati media also say that Lockheed will offer a $300 million plane for $25 million!

A couple of other problems.

Many of the best companies in the world have produced real duds. Israel after spending a few Billion canceled its “Lavi” and Lockheed realized that the F-111 was a total fiasco and dumped it. Early results from the F-35s are not as good either. The Australians and the Kiwis are having second thoughts on spending billions on aircraft that don’t really work

This is the first time Delhi is dealing with the US in defense procurement. For the past decade all sorts of incentives have been dangled in front of Delhi. The latest one reported by the Indian media is that Lockheed Martin will offer Delhi the F-35 for the price of an F-16.

Unofficial reports suggest that the tender has now been cut down to five contenders though, with the Typhoon being eliminated.

India’s aging fleet of MiG-21s, dating back from the 60s and nicknamed “flying coffins” in India, is currently the backbone of its fighter inventory, which also includes other MiG aircraft. Its 1,500-plane air force also has French Mirage and Anglo-French Jaguar planes.

Mikoyan and Dassault both have the advantage that they have historically been reliable suppliers in terms of transfers of technology, licensed production in India, personnel training, supply of spare parts, maintenance and upgrading. IAF pilots and technicians are also familiar with earlier aircraft from Mikoyan and Dassault and would need minimal retraining. Infrastructural and logistical support for maintenance and spares would also be easier for these aircraft compared to the unfamiliar F-16s, F/A-18s and Grippens

Lockheed Martin is a multinational corporation beholden to its investors and share holders. It is not a charity organization that works to improve the Airi forces of third world countries. The primary objective of LM is to offer its clients products on which it can make a profit.

On Sept 11/08, The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Australian Defence Minister Joel Fitzgibbon has asked for a full report from Australia’s DoD, in response to public reports that a classified computer simulation of an attack by Russian-built SU-30 family aircraft on a mixed fleet of F-35As, Super Hornets and F-22s, had resulted in success for the Russian aircraft. Fitzgibbon, who questioned the strategic logic behind Australia’s plans for an F-35/ F-18F fighter fleet while in opposition, asked for an Australian Department of Defence review, and added that:

“I’m determined not to sign on the dotted line on the JSF until I am absolutely certain it’s capable of delivering the capability it promises and that capability can be delivered on time and on budget.”

On Sept 12/08, Australia’s opposition Liberal Party waded into the fray in support of its previous decision to buy the F-35A. It asked the new minister to release the results of the recent Air Combat Capability Review, and get on with his decision. On Sept 25/08, the RAND Corporation stepped in with a statement of their own concerning the August 2008 Pacific Vision simulation:

“Recently, articles have appeared in the Australian press with assertions regarding a war game in which analysts from the RAND Corporation were involved. Those reports are not accurate. RAND did not present any analysis at the war game relating to the performance of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, nor did the game attempt detailed adjudication of air-to-air combat. Neither the game nor the assessments by RAND in support of the game undertook any comparison of the fighting qualities of particular fighter aircraft”

The end result left the Australian controversy without much substance. Even so, the timing of this contretemps could not have been worse from Lockheed Martin’s perspective. Just 3 days earlier, the left-wing American Center for Defense Information had released “Joint Strike Fighter: The Latest Hotspot in the U.S. Defense Meltdown.” This analysis by Pierre M. Spey, a key member of the F-16 and A-10 design teams, cast sharp doubt on the F-35’s capabilities

Japan for reasons of its own does want to purchase the F-22s and F-35s. it wants to shatter the prohibition on operating an Air Force and the US ban on exports of military equipment to Japan. Tokyo feels that by dangling Billions of Dollars in cash and offering to buy a lot of equipment from Lockheed Martin it can create a constituency in Washington that will help it lobby for the waiver or recension of the prohibition on exports to Japan.

The preliminary estimate of the plane in 2009 is $350 per plane. In a decade when the plane is due for delivery to foreign air forces, the cost of the plane will be three times that amount. Which corporation in their right mind would want to sell a $350 million plane for the price of $50 million. It just doesn’t make sense.

The US and Russia dumping Sub-standard military hardware on Japan and India:

While Bharat is running after the F-35s, major European countries do not want the F-35s.

Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway are all formally investigating alternatives to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to replace their F-16s. On September 1, Saab bid a package including 85 Gripen Next Generation (NG) fighters to the Netherlands, offering a “fixed acquisition cost” and “significant savings over 40 plus years operation. By Chris Pocock Aircraft September 16, 2008

What is amazing is that the entire Delhi establishment and the Bharati media is ecstatic about the ability of Bharat to purchase aircraft that are still in the design phase.

The CNN-IBN news channel in India said last Thursday that Lockheed officials were urging India to acquire its F-16 fighters with the incentive of a possible deal down the road to add the F-35 Lightning II to its arsenal.

Lockheed Martin would like to win the MRCA tender for 126 multi-role aircraft issued earlier this year by India. India’s current warplanes soon need to be replaced in a deal worth an estimated $10 billion.July 20, 2007 (by Lieven Dewitte)

All of Bharat is blind to the fact that the Americans in typical fashion are doing a ” bait and switch” to Delhi. It will be offered the F-35 in 10 years, if ti buys the F-16s. What surprises most analysts is the fact that the $10 Billion tender does not have the capacity to purchase the F-35s. So why is Lockheed Martin pitching the F-35. The answer is that Lockheed is pitching is a “Loss leader” for future purchases.

“Beyond the (tender) that’s on the horizon, the F-35 too could play a role, sometime in the future.” Royce Caplinger, the managing director of Lockheed Martin Global Inc. stated on CNN-IBN. To sweeten the deal he indicated the JSF could come at the same price as the F-16. Caplinger was in India to give the military a briefing on the capabilities of the F-35.

In May the Pentagon signed off on initial production of the JSF. At an expected cost of $276 billion when the entire project is complete, it will be one of the largest defense projects ever.
India is expected to evaluate the following aircraft:

Lockheed Martin F-16C/D Block 52+/60 (USA)

Boeing’ F/A-18E/F Super Hornet (USA)

Dassault Aviation Rafale (France)

Saab Gripen, (Sweden)

Mikoyan MiG-35 Fulcrum F, a development of the latest MiG-29M2 with new engines and avionics (Russia)

Eurofighter Typhoon

The U.S. government would need to approve any sale of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter to India. http://www.f-16.net/news_article2435.html

While the F-18s are being dangled with huge kickbacks in front of the politicians, the fact remains that the Bharati Navy is incapable of handling the F-18s. The Bharati Navy wants the F-35s which will be available in the next decade.

Indian Navy is willing to procure F-35 advanced fighters from US, but it is not interested in F-18 fighter planes as they are not “compatible” with the aircraft carriers of the naval force, Chief of Naval Staff Admiral Arun Prakash said here today.

“Yes. Given an offer, we will be much interested in having the F-35 fighters,” Admiral Prakash told reporters when asked if the Navy would be willing to procure the advanced fighters from the US.

He was speaking to reporters after the commissioning of warship INS Beas at the Garden Reach Shipbuilders and Engineers Ltd. Admiral Prakash said that the F-18 aircraft, being offered by the US to Indian armed forces, would not be relevant for the Navy. “F-18 is a carrier-borne aircraft, but needs steam catapult (for take-off). It is not compatible to ski-jump and therefore, not suitable for our type of aircraft carriers,” he said. On the other hand the F-35 aircraft were of the ski-jump type and would be suitable for the Navy’s aircraft carriers, he explained. Indian Navy wants F-35. Not equipped to take F-18s

The Bharati request for F-35s is pretty much a wish list at this point.

The American F-35 joint strike fighter (JSF) project may be nowhere within India’s grasp, feels Lockheed Martin, unless the country gets its ‘data protection’ act together and the two countries sit down and work out a comprehensive list of agreements.

BANGALORE, FEBRUARY 9 The American F-35 joint strike fighter (JSF) project may be nowhere within India’s grasp, feels Lockheed Martin, unless the country gets its ‘data protection’ act together and the two countries sit down and work out a comprehensive list of agreements.

There was a buzz in 2003 of a possible offer to the Indian government for participation in the international project, which also includes countries like the UK, Australia and Singapore.

For now, however, Lockheed is focused on pitching its F-16 multi-role fighter for a 124-unit order the IAF will soon be shooting out requests for. Incidentally, the F-35 project is meant to replace the USAF’s F-16 fighters, which are by now ‘‘vintage’’, despite a repeated programme of upgradation.

‘‘If the F-16 is some vintage, why would India have such concerns of it being sold to Pakistan? The F-16 is still the best, more capable multi-role fighter today compared to, say, a Gripen,’’ said Michael N. Kelley, part of Lockheed’s international business development division.

Kelley insists that as the F-35 is developed, a whole lot of technology is often switched with the new block of F-16s. F-35 on display, F-16 missing in action at Aero India ’05, SHIV AROOR Posted: Feb 10, 2005 at 0143 hrs IST

So huge questions remain. Bharat cannot afford the F-35s. They won’t be available for a decade. Bharat is being offered the F-16s. However the F-16s are not on display and the F-35s are.