Afghanistan: The writing is on the wall. Can Obama read it?

Posted on 17 February 2009. Tags: Afghan, Pakistan, USA

The writing is on the wall.

Solutions to Obama’s “Vietnam” -Afghanistan?

The insurgents control more than 80% of Afghanistan. No other country understands Afghanistan better than Pakistan. After all there are more Pakhtuns in Pakistan than any other country–and Pakhtuns make up a huge portion of the Pakistan Army–disproportionate to their population. In fact the Pakhtuns of Islamabad understand everything about Kabul–certainly more than Hamid Karzai andcertainly a lot more than Washington. Pakistan has always led the way in Afghanistan. In 2001 it tried to convince the Americans that the installation of the Northern Alliance in Kabul will be counterproductive. They didn’t listen. Pakistan has been pleading with the US to stop the drone attacks. They are not listening. The rise in militancy and Anti-Americanism is not good for Pakistan and not good for the US and the world. Does Obama have the courage to implement the real solutions to Obama’s Vietnam (Afghanistan)

Kabul: The final assault begins-How long can NATO hang on? The mini-surge in Afghanistan if not supported by a “civilian surge” and a massive “Marshall Plan” for Pakistan will end in a Saigon type of hasty withdrawal after being run over by the Vietkong. Those is Delhi that smile at the drone attacks should take heed that each drone attack swells the ranks of the militants. A lesson in geography will show how close Swat is to the areas adjoining Occupied Jammu and Kashmir. Asad Munir brilliantly describes the history of the region. There is only one way forward towards peace–ending the occupation of Afghanistan, and end to the drone attacks and massive economic stimulus for the region. Convincing the US Tin ear–of the Pakistani point of view

Earlier, there was talk of 30,000, bringing the U.S. total to 63,000. Now, there are reports Obama maycommitno more than three brigades promised in 2008, and only one brigade now.

Clearly, the United States is checking its hole card. Can we draw to a winning hand? Or is this hand an inevitable loser – and we must cut our losses and cede the pot? No longer, anywhere, is there talk of “victory.”

Nor is the diplomatic news good. Patrick J. Buchanan is the author of “Churchill, Hitler and The Unnecessary War.” The San Francisco Chronicle

There was an interesting discussion about Swat and Afghanistan on one of the most influential talk shows on Pakistani Television–Capital Talk with Hamid Mir. One of the guests was Imran Khan. In a seminal comment Imran Khan stated that the US will be unable to sustain the occupation of Afghanistan for more than a year. Ordinarily one could have ignored Mr. Khan’s boast–but now Patrick Buchanan a Washington insider has written an article in indicating a total dearth of interest in the Defense Department’s earlier “mini-surge” for Afghanistan.

Bruce Reidel reports that Mullah Omar has offered the US safe passage if they leave Afghanistan. Convincing the US Tin ear–of the Pakistani point of view . General Hamid Gul (former head of the ISI) has also made a statement similar to that of Imran Khan. General Aslam Beg (a former Chief of Army Staff) was also confident that the end game is near in Kabul. The signs are ominous. With all supply routes closed, (Karachi-Khyber-Kabul, Kyrgyzstan-Kabul ) the US has fewoptions left–either kowtow to Iran and use the Chahbahar to Kabul route or negotiate with Pakistan. Pressure, bombing and covert actions in Pakistan have not worked–in fact it has hardened the resolve of the army and fueled Anti-Americanism to fever pitch. Convincing the US Tin ear–of the Pakistani point of view

There is a lot of reluctance on the part of NATO to extend their tenure or even add more troops. The US will have to add thousands of troops and attempt to reverse the situation in Afghanistan. This won’t happen by simply removing Mr. Karzai. The entire policy has to be changed.

TalibalisIndefatigable: UK Brigadier Mark Carleton-Smith . The Taliban are testing the defenses of Kabul. Another daring attack on Kabul rattles Karzai’s shakey regime.They are slowly executing more and more daring assaults on the most fortified capital on the planet. Afghanistan audacious attack: Karzai-Kabul weaknesses exposed . President Obama has to totally reverse the Neocon philosophical crusade and stop listening to the advisers from Delhi.

He has to understand Pakistan’s legitimate interests? .
He has to stop the drone attacks on Pakistan. How long can the “wink wink nod nod” farce of Drones go on?
He has to send massive economic aid to the area–the equivalent of a Marshall Plan
He has to directly or indirectly negotiate with the ”moderate” members of the insurgents and stop demonizing the “Taliban”. The last days of the last “emperor”. The “Mayor of Kabul” is being replaced

Failure and Defeat in Afghanistan: Inevitable Frustration & misdirected Payback for ally Pakistan