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Beyond the headlines, there is much going on behind the scenes in Delhi, Islamabad and Washington and New York. Much of this has to do with the internal politics of at least three countries. “Us vs Them: Now the Hindu Indians are the Good Guys and All Pakistanis Are Muslim Terrorists.” By Fawzia Afzal-Khan

Once the discussion of the Mumbai Terror begins in the international arena, other subjects may also crop up. For example the discussion of Kashmir may be tied to the resolution and the unresolved resolutions on Kashmir may also be brought into the discussion.

If India shows Pakistan as a threat it will also be effecting its own status. When you point one finger pointing at Islamabad you are pointing four fingers at yourself.This sort of action destabilizes the entire areas. Business will now think twice about going to Mumbai and Karachi.

India is in the throes of a seminal election campaign which may decidethe future of the soul of India which will reverberate throughout the world. One one side are the forces of change, the leftists, the Dalitsand the Muslims. On the other side of the spectrum are the BJP, VHP, RSS and the rightist religious parties. In the middle is the Indian National Congress which usually is “secular“, but “secular” in India means “Hinduism Light”.

On the right of course are gang of Modi and Adhvani their gangs of racist Hindu extremists who Ahmed Quraishi has labeled “the Hindu Taliban”.  Many in India have called the Fascist movement the most virulent and most agressivein the world–complete withSwastika, racial superiority and hatred towards Christians, Dalits, Muslims and all. Due to Geo strategic reasons and 911 all this is openly tolerated by the West. The other reason that the supporters of Bobby Jindal can send money to the Gujrati BJPis that the West has not come into conflict with these extremists yet.

The Congress is stuck in the middle. It is constrained on bothsides. If it is seen as taking a ‘soft” stand on Pakistan, it may be swept out of power. If it takes a hard stand, it may risk a war withPakistan which would destroy the economy in bothcountries. A bad economy already beset withhuge financial reverberations from the US will again play into the hands of the extremist right wing. The Indian National Congress is therefore between a rock and a hard place. It has therefore tried to play all sides. It has ratchetedup the rhetoric with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh playing the good guy, and Pranab Mukherjee (aka MuKKaRjee in Pakistan–for denying that he ever made a threatening phone call to Islamabad) playing the bad cop. Indo-Pak imbroglio: Did Mukherjee call?

We shall have to patiently confront it,” he said. “We have no intention to be provoked.”

His words signaled India’s delicate and somewhat circumscribed options. If it were to carry out even limited military strikes against Pakistan, it would be likely to lose the support of its allies, namely the United States, which fears that Pakistan would then divert troops from its western border with Afghanistan to its eastern one with India.

Second, India confronts a weak civilian government in Pakistan, which, as Indian officials have long acknowledged privately, has little muscle to counter the powerful military and spy agency. NY Times. By SOMINI SENGUPTA, Published: December 11, 2008

The USA is in the midst of a mild revolution. Obama’s brains-Six Brzezinskis. The Republicans have been sent home and the left wing of the Democratic party smells blood. Barack Husein Obama has sees a huge opportunity in building bridges of harmony among the different countries. The policy of the new president was to bring peace to Afghanistan by creating peace between India and Pakistan. This goal remains sacrosanct but the tactics may have changed. The appointment of President Clinton as the Kashmir envoy may have been the first victim of Mumbai. Obama: Empathy & strategic partnership with Pakistan & regional solutions.

India knows that the Mumbai terror attacks have a huge domestic component to it. Ratan Tata has said so. Mumbai terror: Will it be a reason used to kill Muslims & attack Pakistan. Kashmiris also are involved in this incident. However India is constrained by its internal issues in naming the real culprits behind the Mumbai attacks. India under a can opener:-Cracks in confederation turn into chasms: Fissures in Factitious union . All this is known by India, Pakistan and the USA. However each will not discuss this publicly. Kashmir at root of India Pakistan conflict.

Pakistan has one of the strongest presidencies in the history of Pakistan. President Asif Zardarihas all the dictatorial powers that President General Musharraf had. The PPPP has a majority in the National Assembly and has formed coalition governments in Sindh, Punjab, Baluchistan and Sarhad. Despite all this, President Asif Zardari is the weakest president Pakistan has had. It is very obvious that the job his several pay grades above his calibre. Mr. Asif Zardari may eventually grow into the job of  the presidency, but the freshman President right now doesn’t have a clue about what is going on around him. “Uneasy lies the head which wears the crown“.

War was never an option for India. Its “Cold Start Strategy” remains in the Cold Storage. The US politicians are cognizant of what is going on. The non-binding UN resolution is a good compromise for all concerned. It allows The Indian National Congress to show its big kahunas, and forces Mr. Zardari to wage an unending war against his real and percieved enemies. The UN resolution also allows the Bush Administration to blame someone.

The biggest restraint on a full-blown Indian military operation is the recognition in India of the fragility of Pakistan’s civilian government, and also of the fact that both the jihadistsand their sympathisers in the military would love nothing more than a confrontation with India to allow the Pakistani army to walk away from its counterinsurgency efforts along the Afghan border. But even if it doesn’t choose to attack the Pakistani state, the likelihood remains high that India will begin military operations against militant camps in Pakistani-administered Kashmir.

So, while Rice may offer the Pollyannaish vision of India and Pakistan uniting against jihadistterrorism, the more plausible scenario is an escalation of confrontation, carefully calibrated to avoid provoking another war that neither sidewants. And as the US continues to cultivate proxies to fight on its behalf in Iraq and possibly also Afghanistan and Iran, it may be worth remembering the roots of the Mumbai mess in the strategies of proxy warfare. Proxies are not simply mercenaries; they have their own agendas. And when those agendas diverge, their sponsors often find that, like the genie, the proxies rarely go quietly back into the bottle. Tony Karon is a New York-based editor and analyst who blogs at www.rootlesscosmopolitan.com

We we wrote last year…Zebig said in endorsing Obama: “What makes Obama attractive to me is that he understands that we live in a very different world where we have to relate to a variety of cultures and peoples.” Obama’s alleged globalapproach and trans-ethnic, trans-racialallure are right out of Zbig’s university textbook, or rather Second Chance, which will be the manual for the Obama campaign and presidency.

Obama is literally a second chance for Brzezinski: having destroyed the Soviet Union and shattered the Warsaw Pact, he now wants to dismember the Russian Federation itself and put the finishing touches on Afghanistan as an impregnable US military base against China, Russia… the list is endless. Perhaps Zbig is dreaming of restoring Greater Poland circa 1600 — from the Black Sea to the Baltic, all controlled by petty szlachta aristocrats like… the Brzezinskis?

Some of the most sober journalists have said that the Mumbai attacks were not the world of Al-Qaeda. There are no fingerprints of Lashkar: Christine Fair on Mumbai terror .There are many around the world that think that there is an Al-Qaeda component in the Indian bombing. Hope that the U.S. will get sucked into Pakistan.” Osama bin Laden

While the lone captured terrorist’s confession and surrounding evidence clearly points to the Mumbai attacks being planned and executed by Lashkar-e-Taiba, experts who have watched the theatre of insurgency in Pakistan and Afghanistan do not rule out an al-Qaida hand.

Ahmed Rashid, author of several books on the region and an expert in Islamic terrorism, has argued that the emergence of a regrouped Taliban in Pakistan and the fact that fighters often go back and forth from one group to another are factors that make al-Qaida involvement likely.

“Al-Qaidahas established a new safe haven in the tribal agencies of Pakistan, where it is defended by a new organization, the Taliban Movement of Pakistan,” says Rashidin a co-authored article withNew York University’s Barnett Rubin for next month’s issue of Foreign Affairs journal. In a separate comment for a British channel, Rashid said it was about time al-Qaida had to be seen doing something.

“Al-Qaidais looking for some relief and a diversion. What better way to do so than by provoking the two old enemies – India and Pakistan – witha terrorist attack that diverts attention away from the tribal areas?”

If Pakistan were to mass troops along the Indian border, it would help Osama bin Laden and his terror allies to divert attention and gain some breathing space to regroup, he said, especially against US president-elect Barack Obama’s warning of sending 20,000 more US troops to Afghanistan.

That, incidentally, is the same argument given by the Pakistani army in warning against any aggression by India. “This strategic diversion ploy for the sake of al-Qaida and its surrogates is the principle motive behind the Mumbai terrorist attacks,” said Rashid.

He argued that it had worked in 2002 when the Pakistan army was distracted from the Afghan border because of the Indian mobilization after the attack on Parliament. That, he said, allowed al-Qaidaand the Taliban fighters to escape from Afghanistan and consolidate their positions in the tribal areas in Pakistan.

“If the two countries now mobilise their forces against one another they will be walking straight into the trap laid for them by al-Qaida,” he said.

Rashid and Rubin blame Washington for adopting a flawed policy on terror. “Washington’s limited agenda in the region was to press the Pakistani military to go after al-Qaida,” the Foreign Affairs article says.

“Meanwhile, Washington largely ignored the broader insurgency, which remained marginal until 2005. This suited the Pakistani military’s strategy, which was to assist the United States against al-Qaidabut to retain the Afghan Taliban as a potential source of pressure on Afghanistan.”

However, that started changing in 2006 but by that time the Taliban had entrenched themselves in the Frontier provinces and Swat area of Pakistan.

The two also say the concept of “pressuring” Pakistan is flawed. “No state can be successfully pressured into acts it considers suicidal. The Pakistani security establishment believes that it faces both a US-Indian-Afghan alliance and a separate Iranian-Russian alliance, each aimed at undermining Pakistani influence in Afghanistan and even dismembering the Pakistani state.”Times of India. ‘India, Pakistan walking into Qaida trap’ 6 Dec 2008, 0434 hrs IST, TNN

Many in the media are ever eager to blame Pakistan for all problems on this planet. Tony Karon’s advice should be heeded by the US and India also. The militants that are being trained and armed by the US and India may continue to harm India itself. India intelligence: “‘the aim of RAW is to keep internal disturbances flaring up and the ISI preoccupied so that Pakistan can lend no worthwhile resistance to Indian designs in the region.”

If Condoleezza Rice had been looking for some in-flight movies pertinent to her mission in South Asia over the past few days, she ought to have considered Rambo III. Or Pinocchio. Or Frankenstein. Aladdin, even.

All four could help explain the background to the Mumbaimassacre that has brought India and Pakistan to the brink of confrontation. Pinocchio and Frankenstein, after all, are cautionary tales about how those who fabricate creatures to do their bidding are often forced to reckon withthe often vindictive impulses of their creations. Aladdin unleashes a genie who has his own agenda. And Rambo III, in which Sylvester Stallone’s action-hero joins up with the Afghan mujahideento fight the Soviets (just like a certain Mr Bin Laden) should serve as a timely reminder that support for holy warriors waging jihad had been an article of faith in Ronald Reagan’s Washington. The lesson for Pakistan and the US: beware a genie with a gun.  Tony Karon. Last Updated: December 06. 2008 7:34PM UAE / December 6. 2008 3:34PM GMT

On the one hand Delhi lectures Pakistan on the dangers of meddling in Afghanistan and creating Frankenstein monsters; on the other hand it cannot resist aggravating the Afghans by supporting a puppet governemntin Kabul. There are no moral compunctions in the corridors of Indian power and no voices of reason in Bharati halls full of representatives of the people that castigate the politicians in power for supporting puppets in Kabul. ( People hate Karzai support Taliban: Afghan Senator Ahmadzai ) If the Indian analysts are right then Pakistan has suffering because of its adventurism in Afghansitan. Those same analysts do not excoriate the policies on the same subject. Afghanistan: India packing its bags? Now or Never! . The Indian media says boo to the inverventionist policy of  Islamabad and hooray for Delhi’s revanchist dreams. Nightmare scenario for India in Kabul: The Taliban’s Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Pakistan: Reversing Tarplay defined Brzezinski plans . The unintended consequence of Mumbai has been a realignment. Obama: Empathy & strategic partnership with Pakistan & regional solutions

The long term consequences of banning organizations and declaring them as terrorist organization is self defeating and counterproductive. When an organization is out in the open, it can be monitored, infiltrated and targeted. When an organization goes underground it is impossible to keep track of. This has happened in Pakistan before. When the Lashkar e Tayaba was banned it surfaced as Jamad e Dawa. When the PLO was declared a terrorist organization it went undergound but never disappeared. Similarly the Aikhwan Ul Muslimeen in Egypt never quite went away. India has banned dozens of Kashmiri organization, they simply reappear. The Indians banned the RSS. It reappeared as the BJP and the VHP etc. etc.

RAWs trail of terror: Indian Bomb blasts in Pakistan.Whenever the Khyber is tinkered with, New Delhi faces the consequences. Is Delhi preventing the 4th Battle of Panipat or instigating it?India, if it does not dramatically change its internal supressions will implodelike the USSR or explode like Yugoslavia. The ‘Immediate’ battle & the ultimate war in South Asia

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RAW Page: Indian Intelligence Services

• India a secret player in Afghanistan: Bases—Lashkargarh, Qushila Jadid,Khahak,Hassan Killies
• RAW facts on South Asia- India fails to occupy countries
• Indian RAW’s LTTE tactics in Islamabad Marriott bombing:Janaka Perera
• Pakistani train bombing: Exposed Indian RAW agent outed: RAW indicted in sabatage & hundreds of other explosions in Pakistan killing thousands of innocent civilians
• Marriott Marines Mystery: Why hide the secret steel boxes?
• The TTP is a RAW agency: The Indian LTTE against Pakistan