India under a can opener:-Cracks in confederation turn into chasms: Fissures in Factitious union

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | новости рупии | 卢比新闻 | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ルピーニュース | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | پاکستاني کھاتا | RUPEE NEWS | December 1st, 2008 | Moin Ansari | معین آنصآرّی | اخبار روپیہ |

The Pakistani response to the Indian “Cold Start Strategy” or limited strikes against Pakistan will be swift and punishing retribution. If any analyst thinks that “Cold start” will remain cold he or she is delusional and needs to be committed. India is the USA and Pakistan is not Afghanistan. If India does cross the border and sends aircraft to bomb any Pakistani territory, Islamabad will retaliate in a measured and limited manner. Any Indian bombing will be matched by an equal and opposite number of attacks on India. This will continue and if India wants to escalate, Pakistan will escalate too. Pakistan also reserves the right to use tactical and real Nuclear weapons. Tactical nuclear weapons have low radition affects while actual nuclear weapons cause colossal damage.However there is another scenario possible.

Pakistan has just had a regime change. The new government is of secular political parties eager to please both America and India. It is intensely despised for not standing up to the US and to India to protect Pakistan’s interests. The attack on Marriot Hotel was carried out by RAW but the government did not make the information public. India has denied Pakistan its rights on water of Rivers Sutlej, Ravi, Chenab and Jhelum but the Zardari regime has not even made a protest. If Pakistan is bombed more aggressively by the USA as suggested in the STRATFOR analysis, the people are not going to wait for the next elections to get rid of the Zardari regime. Armed cadres that exist in every province of Pakistan will take the law into their hands. A revolution is likely to fill the vacuum that emerges from Pakistan becoming a ‘failed state’. Those who hope that Pakistan would break up would be disappointed. Neither Afghanistan nor Iraq broke up despite the wishes of the occupiers. The unity among the people in Pakistan is much stronger than those two countries. If the armed forces and the Banking System survived the revolution, Pakistan will emerge stronger and united. And Revolutions recognise no borders. It is India that may break up because the atrophy of the society in that country is much more advanced. Can India take that risk? The ‘Immediate’ Fights the’ Ultimate’ in South –Central Asia By Usman Khalid

THE US Secretary of State, Condoleezza Rice, will arrive in New Delhi tomorrow to discuss the Mumbai terrorist attacks amid turmoil at the top of the Indian Government and deep tension between the nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan.

The Government in New Delhi has been reshaped in the wake of the devastating strike on Mumbai, dubbed India’s September 11. The man responsible for counter-terrorism in India as home minister, Shivraj Patil, resigned on Sunday and was replaced by the former finance minister Palaniappan Chidambaram.

Mr Patil’s 4½-year tenure as one of India’s most powerful ministers was tarnished by 20 big terrorist strikes. The Mumbai attack, which killed more than 170 people, including two Australians, was the sixth deadly assault on a big Indian city since May.

There is anger in India after revelations that the terrorists entered Mumbai by water, despite several intelligence reports that the city was vulnerable to attack from the sea. There was also specific intelligence advice that the luxury hotels attacked last week were at risk.

India’s top security official, the National Security Adviser, M.K. Narayanan, also offered to resign but was turned down.

A spokesman for the US President, George Bush, said he was sending Dr Rice to New Delhi as “a further demonstration of the United States’ commitment to stand in solidarity with the people of India as we all work together to hold these extremists accountable”.Agence France-Presse. Matt Wade in Mumbai December 2, 2008

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  • Total incompetence & Systematic failure at all levels in MumbaiIndia has made its continued occupation of Muslim majority state of Jammu and Kashmir a matter of honour and prestige. Sikh majority Punjab and the federal state of the seven sisters of Assam (some of them with Christian majority) are next in the queue to become sovereign independent states. USA and India have raised hopes in these independence movements by supporting self-determination in Baluchistan and Pashtunistan. The situation having been unfrozen, all these freedom movements would achieve legitimate and popular objectives once the regular armed forces of both countries falter and fail as is very likely in consequence of Indo-US efforts. The Pashtun being in the vanguard of the Islamic Movement, and the secession of Baluchistan being supported by three out of fifty tribes of Baluchistan, it seems very unlikely that the US plans against Pakistan would succeed. However, it is more likely that older and more popular independence movement in India might succeed. Destabilisation resulting from Indo-US plans against Pakistan would produce results much more surprising than in Iraq or Afghanistan. Can India take that risk? The ‘Immediate’ Fights the’ Ultimate’ in South –Central Asia By Usman Khalid
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    Last night she called on Pakistan to show “absolute” co-operation and “total transparency” with India in the investigation of who was behind the attack.

    “I don’t want to jump to any conclusions myself on this, but I do think that this is the time for a complete, absolute, total transparency and co-operation and that is what we expect,” she said.

    India’s Deputy Home Minister, Shakeel Ahmad, said yesterday it had been “very clearly established” that all the Mumbai attackers were from Pakistan.

    But the Pakistani President, Asif Ali Zardari, warned that rogue militants had the power to provoke war in the region and appealed to India not to punish Pakistan for the attack.

    “Events in Mumbai tell us that there are ongoing efforts to carry out copycat attacks by militants,” he told the Financial Times.

    “We must all stand together to fight this menace.”

    Islamabad has denied any involvement in the attack but New Delhi has demanded that it not “permit the use of its territory for terrorism against India”.

    A Pakistani security official told local journalists at the weekend that Islamabad would move tens of thousands of its forces away from its border with Afghanistan to the Indian border if tensions continued to rise.

    India’s new Home Minister, Mr Chidambaram, is expected to oversee an overhaul of the counter-terrorism apparatus, with the possible creation of a federal agency of investigation.

    The deputy chief minister of Maharashtra and the state’s home minister, R.R. Patil, resigned yesterday after calling the attack on Mumbai a “small” incident.

    The state’s Chief Minister, Vilasrao Deshmukh, also announced last night that he had offered to step down. with Agence France-Presse. Matt Wade in Mumbai December 2, 2008

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  • The BJP, however, choosing to utilise this terrorist attack for improving its electoral fortunes by sharpening communal polarisation, refused to join the rest of the country in condemning and combating terrorism. Make no mistake: if the Hindu-Muslim divide deepens, then the terrorists have succeeded to the extent of destabilising our society. Seeking an electoral dividend by deepening this divide only emboldens terrorism further. In fact, terrorism and communalism feed off each other. Recollect that the Lashkar-e-Tayyeba (the lone surviving terrorist, in Mumbai, admitted that he belongs to the LeT) had, on the eve of the 1999 elections, stated: “The BJP suits us. Within a year they have made us into a nuclear and missile power. Lashkar-e-Tayyeba is getting a good response because of the BJP’s statements. It is much better than before. We pray to God that they come to power again. Then we will emerge even stronger.” (Hindustan Times, July 19, 1999). India cannot afford to be thus sandwiched. Sitaram Yechury, December 03, 2008, Hindustan Times

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