US bluff: Other arduous US Supply Chain routes to Afghanistan not feasible

Categorized | Afghan, Current Affairs, Pak CA

US bluff: Other arduous US Supply Chain routes to Afghanistan not feasible

Posted on 20 November 2008. Tags: Afghan, Pakistan, USA

The US may be bluffing. Then again it has to continue the war in Afghanistan. it is now looking at the feasibility of a supply route from Georgia to Kabul and the rest of Afghanistan. This is a long and arduous route for America. This supply chain was unsustainable by the mighty USSR even when it owned the six Central Asia republics. Now the route is being revived by the Americans in a last ditch effort to sustain the “unwinnable war” in Afghanistan. Cut and Run: UK Iraq troops wont go to Afghanistan

When it comes to America’s relationship with Pakistan, remember one thing: it’s all about the fuel. Many presidential candidates are insisting that the U.S. get tough with Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf. But the reality is that we have almost no leverage. Why? The answer can be seen by looking at the American military’s fuel logistics nightmare in Afghanistan. Without the cooperation of Musharraf’s government, the 24,000 U.S. troops stationed in Afghanistan would likely run out of fuel within a matter of days.

The U.S. military is now burning about 575,000 gallons of fuel per day in Afghanistan. And about 80 percent of that comes from refineries in Pakistan. Without the support of Musharraf and the Pakistani military, U.S. forces in Afghanistan would have only one fuel supply, coming via a precarious logistics line that extends more than 1,000 miles all the way from refineries in Baku (Azerbaijan) and Turkmenbashi (Turkmenistan) to northern Afghanistan.

The fuel from the refinery in Baku is loaded onto rail cars and put on rail barges that then traverse the Caspian Sea. Once in Turkmenistan, the rail cars follow a circuitous route through Uzbekistan before they arrive at the Afghan border, where the fuel is then transferred to trucks.

The long supply lines to the Caspian Sea underscore the importance of the Pakistani fuel. By mid-2006, total fuel storage capacity for forces operating out of the Kabul and Bagram air bases was less than 3 million gallons. Although a contractor for the U.S. military is now building an additional 3 million gallons of storage capacity at Bagram Air Base, if the flow of fuel from Pakistan is completely cut off, American forces could be running on fumes within a fortnight. Posted on Feb. 12, 2008,By Robert Bryce,The Pakistan Fuel Connection

The US cannot survive in Afghanistan without Pakistani help.

We can’t logistically support operations in Afghanistan without cooperation. No Berlin Air Lift is feasible. Kuwait, Dubai, and Qatar are too far away and Kandahar and Bagram can only handle so much traffic. We must get cooperation, or quit. Greg Wilcox, a retired Army officer

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Fighting terror without Pakistan by Lisa Curtis: “The U.S. doesn’t really have the option of abandoning Pakistan. We rely on Pakistani air, land and sea space to supply critical fuel, vehicles and aircraft to support our 26,000 (soon to be 29,500) troops fighting in Afghanistan. The U.S. would find it extremely difficult to develop alternative supply lines for the war effort in Afghanistan.”

The U.S. doesn’t really have the option of abandoning Pakistan. We rely on Pakistani air, land and sea space to supply critical fuel, vehicles and aircraft to support our 26,000 (soon to be 29,500) troops fighting in Afghanistan. The U.S. would find it extremely difficult to develop alternative supply lines for the war effort in Afghanistan. Lisa Curtis

The Grand Bargain? Pakistan key to Afghan Great Game. A straight line is defined as the shortest distance between two points. For America the shortest distance to Kabul is from Karachi via Torkhum. However the geopolitical situation has forced America to find alternative routes to Kabul. Pakistan to US: No pay-No play: Tough lessons on geography! Only time will tell if the alternate routes can survive General Winter. Rupee News has recently published several articles on this subject. War Crimes: Illegal attacks on Pakistan- counter-productive.

Central Asia map: Kyrgyzstan moving closer to Pakistan

The Pakistanis are miffed at confirmation of the suspicion that the USA has been sabotaging operations inside Pakistani territory.

America’s Secret war in Pakistan-MSNBC uncovers Marines with long beards and without uniforms. Many in Pakistan believe that the United States has deceived Pakistan into conniving with Washington to bring about its own destruction: India and U.S.-supported Afghanistan will form a pincer around Pakistan to dismember the world’s only Muslim nuclear power. And some Iranians speculate that in preparation for the coming of the Mahdi, God has blinded the Great Satan to its own interests so that it would eliminate both of Iran’s Sunni-ruled regional rivals, Afghanistan and Iraq, thus unwittingly paving the way for the long-awaited Shiite restoration. Burnett R. Ruben, Ahmed Rashid in CFR October 2008.

UK Reality check on the war in Afghanistan. We first brought up this issue several years ago. According to the military and defense experts we talked to, the transportation of arms and food through Georgis is not feasible and is part of the US Army’s psy ops strategy. This sort of press release is an attmept to put pressure on Pakistan. The facts on the ground dictate that the US supply routes have to go through Pakistan. US attacks on Pakistan since 2004 fueled Afghan insurgency

WASHINGTON, Nov 19: The United States is seeking alternative supply routes for Nato troops in Afghanistan, including a tortuous overland journey from Europe, The Washington Post reported on Wednesday.

The United States currently uses the Karachi-Khyber Pass route for supplying 67,000 foreign troops stationed in Afghanistan, including 32,000 Americans. Nearly half of US forces operate under Nato command.

About 75 per cent of Nato and US supplies bound for Afghanistan – including petrol, food and military equipment – are transported overland through Pakistan.

Last week, Pakistan was forced to suspend supplies after militants launched back-to-back assaults on US convoys and hijacked 13 trucks.

The supplies resumed on Monday after Pakistan beefed up security along the route that passes through the lawless tribal region. But the attacks forced the Pentagon to expedite its efforts for developing alternative routes.

The Post has obtained US Defence Department documents showing that the Pentagon is seeking far longer, but possibly safer, alternate routes through Europe, the Caucasus and Central Asia. US seeks alternative supply routes to Afghanistan By Our Correspondent

Peek into Obama’s brains: Bruce Reidel on Pakistan. While the new administration may be looking at revising the Afghan policy, the current one is still moving ahead with the failed policy. Book Review: The Limits of [US] Power by Andrew Bacevich

In September, the US Transportation Command sent a notice to potential contractors saying that “strikes, border delays, accidents and pilferage” in Pakistan and the risk of “attacks and armed hijackings” in Afghanistan posed “a significant risk” to supplies for Western forces in Afghanistan.

The Post noted that supplying troops in landlocked Afghanistan had long been the Achilles’ heel of foreign armies, most recently the Soviets, whose forces were nearly crippled by Mujahideen attacks on vulnerable supply lines.

The Post noted that last week’s attacks on supply trucks in the Khyber Agency was one in a series in recent months that had cost Nato suppliers millions in losses this year. In March, insurgents set fire to 40 to 50 Nato oil tankers near Torkham. A month later, Taliban raiders made off with military helicopter engines valued at about $13 million.

Forced by these attacks, the United States has already begun negotiations with countries along what the Pentagon has called a new northern route.

The Indian based in Tajikistan is used to train terrroists against China and Pakistan

An agreement with Georgia has been reached and talks are ongoing with Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, according to an Oct 31 Pentagon document. “We do not expect transit agreements with Iran or Uzbekistan,” the Transportation Command told potential contractors. US seeks alternative supply routes to Afghanistan By Our Correspondent

Uzbeks Pakistan Afghan map

Greg Wilcox, a retired Army officer who has written extensively on military tactics and operations, says that should the fuel from Pakistan be cut off, the U.S. would have to try flying fuel into its bases in Afghanistan – which he believes would be “mission impossible.” Wilcox told us that when it comes to Pakistan, “We don’t have any choice. We got kicked out of Uzbekistan so we don’t have any bases there. We can’t survive in that region….We can’t logistically support operations in Afghanistan without cooperation. No Berlin Air Lift is feasible. Kuwait, Dubai, and Qatar are too far away and Kandahar and Bagram can only handle so much traffic. We must get cooperation, or quit. Posted on Feb. 12, 2008,By Robert Bryce,The Pakistan Fuel Connection

The US cannot fight the war in Afghanistan without Pakistani help and the CIA knows it. Everything else is a bluff.

Trade First: No nonsense banker steers Pakistan out of global finance crisis

After controlling most of Afghanistan, the insurgents target supplies from Uzbekistan and the Central Asia Republics

Uzbekistan pressured the IMU is scared of Taliban reprisals on supplies to Kabul

Anti-Occupation forces choke US Afghan war

Reality check on War in Afghanistan

The implications of the IMU activity in Pakistan

The Grand Bargain? Pakistan key to Afghan Great Game

Tough lessons in geography

Gohar Ilahi says:

November 22, 2008 at 7:05 pm

In light of the finger pointing and the dismal effect the war on terror in Afghanistan has had on Pakistan. The Pakistani people and the government need to get everyone in the nation on the same page and re-think this alliance with the United States which has destroyed Pakistan’s economy, lost billions of dollars, introduced suicide bombings, increased terror and crime and the rule of law within the country. Pakistan should conduct a referendum on wether or not to be part of the alliance. I fully support the government in repelling American attacks into Pakistani territory, if anything Pakistani forces should go after targets within Afghanistan including the indian-established terrorist training camps and consulates used for sabotage and training militants for attacks against Pakistan. What kind of alliance is this, when the US attacks its most important ally, they country that is supplying it and sustaining its fight in Afghanistan. Pakistani’s need to decide wether to continue in this alliance, and if they still want to, re-negotiate it because the current set-up is not working at all. If not, we should close down all supply channels to Afghanistan, and even close down the border(who cares about the few billion dollars of exports to Afghanistan- it’ll just be a return to export levels prior to 2000). Pakistan needs to send a strong signal to the US, and more importantly, to the domestic politics within the country which no longer supports this war in Afghanistan which is costing Pakistan and its citizens life so much.