Peter Goodspeed: Is Afghanistan in peril? This week, the top U.S. military commander in the country said he needs more troops and equipment, such as helicopters, predator drones and intelligence resources, to fight the Taliban in a battle that will get worse before it gets better.

A day before the seventh anniversary of 9/11, Admiral Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee the U.S. military needs to adopt a new strategy in Afghanistan.

“I’m not convinced we are winning it in Afghanistan,” he said. “[But] I’m convinced we can .”

After seven years of unsuccessfully trying to stabilize the country, George W. Bush, the U.S. President, has ordered a wholesale review of U.S. and NATO policies there.

Defeat in Afghanistan

The flurry of introspective studies, conducted by 17 agencies — including the Defence, State, Treasury and Agriculture departments and all U.S. intelligence agencies, the National Security Council and the White House “war czar” Lieutenant-General Douglas Lute — comes as NATO troops are struggling to wage a counter-insurgency campaign against the Taliban.

They are hamstrung by troop and equipment shortages, a fragmented command structure, an explosion of the war in Pakistan’s troubled tribal areas and the decline in popular support for the government of Hamid Karzai. the Afghan President.

The Taliban is steadily expanding its presence and influence in the countryside, and U.S. military officials report violence has surged by 30% over last year.

Areas of “extreme risk,” where the Taliban exert considerable pressure, now make up about a third of the surface area of Afghanistan.

Meanwhile, U.S. intelligence reports the country is being flooded with foreign fighters. Chechens, Uzbeks, Saudis, Iraqis and Europeans are all rushing to fight in Afghanistan via Pakistan. According to intelligence estimates, there are more foreign fighters in Afghanistan now than in Iraq.

“The influence of the insurgency has expanded beyond traditionally volatile areas and has increased in provinces neighbouring Kabul,” says a report by Ban Ki-moon, the UN Secretary-General, released last week.

“Incidents stemming from cross-border activities from Pakistan have increased significantly in terms of numbers and sophistication.”

Mr. Ban also warned of a pending humanitarian crisis: “There is a perilous food security situation, which is affecting as much as one sixth of the population and is caused by the current drought, exacerbated by high global food prices and the impact of the conflict on humanitarian access.”

The UN estimates 1.2 million children under the age of five and 550,000 pregnant/nursing mothers are at high risk of severe malnutrition.

At the same time, Taliban attacks are targeting foreign aid workers and have forced cutbacks in humanitarian aid. So far this year, 30 humanitarian aid workers have been killed and 92 abducted.

“We are at a critical juncture in our efforts in Afghanistan,” the UN report says.

“A ‘political surge’ is required to reverse negative trends and accelerate progress in those areas where we have achieved successes.“

Washington’s high-level review, just like a similar exercise in Iraq in 2006 that resulted in an adjustment known as the “surge,” is supposed to pinpoint what needs to be done.

“Afghanistan doesn’t just need more ‘boots on the ground,’ ” Adm. Mullen told Congress in September.

“It needs more trucks on those roads, more teachers in those schools and more trained judges and lawyers in those courts.”

“Foreign investment. Alternative crops. Sound governance. The rule of law. These are the keys to success in Afghanistan,” he added.

Defeat in Afghanistan: Battle of Maiwand

“We can’t kill our way to victory and no armed force anywhere – no matter how good – can deliver these keys alone.”

So far, there is no indication the United States or NATO is prepared to make the sort of commitment needed.

Anthony Cordesman, a security expert with the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, is scathing in his criticism of U.S. policy.

“The United States was strong on concept and rhetoric and dismally incompetent in planning, management and execution,” he says in a new report on Afghanistan.

“The U.S. has failed to commit anything like the resources it committed to the war in Iraq. The U.S. has been slow to commit the resources required and has never adequately funded the conflict.

“A legacy of underfunding has progressively increased the length and total cost of the war in human lives, the wounded and dollars.“

According to a recent study by the U.S. Congressional Research Service, total spending on the Afghan war over eight years totals US$171.1-billion, compared with US$653.1-billion for the six-year conflict in Iraq.

Yet Afghanistan is larger than Iraq, has more people, and faces ethnic, sectarian and linguistic divisions just as serious. Combat there involves more demanding terrain and an enemy with sanctuaries in Pakistan.

On top of everything else, Iraq, with its vast oil wealth and well developed middle class, was far better suited to stage a quick recovery than war-ravaged and impoverished Afghanistan.

“Militarily, we have never had enough forces to conduct a proper counterinsurgency campaign across Afghanistan,” said General David McKiernan, commander of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force.

“To do that – clear out insurgents, keep them separated from the population and set the conditions for reconstruction and development – all of that translates to boots on the ground, and we are short of them.”

Gen. McKiernan, who was in Washington this week, is asking the Pentagon for four more U.S. combat brigades (about 15,000 soldiers) as well as more support forces, helicopters, and reconnaissance, intelligence and surveillance capabilities.

With 152,000 U.S. soldiers in Iraq, compared to just 33,000 in Afghanistan, reinforcements will depend on continued improvements in Iraqi security.

In the meantime, U.S. officials are anxious to have a new strategy ready when the next president takes office.

Both presidential candidates, John McCain and Barack Obama, have said they will pay more attention to Afghanistan and are prepared to put more resources into the war.

“There is an opportunity to fundamentally rethink our Afghanistan strategy,” said John Nagl, a retired lieutenant-colonel and senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think-tank in Washington. “There is more confidence that changing strategies can change outcomes.”

So far, the reviews have highlighted several possible course changes.

The Pentagon is already pushing to unify and simplify Afghanistan’s command structure, placing all forces there, including NATO troops such as Canada’s, under Gen. McKiernan’s control.

However, he will continue to report to the U.S. Central Command in Tampa, Fla., now headed by General David Petraeus, the former U.S. commander in Iraq and the godfather of modern U.S. counter-insurgency theory.

At present, there are soldiers from 40 countries in Afghanistan, and many troops work under different commands, with different goals and different rules. Streamlining the chain of command may be controversial since some NATO countries limit how and where their troops can be used.

To get around those caveats, the U.S. may let NATO be in charge of things like logistics, force protection and public affairs, while moving to consolidate counter-insurgency operations under a single U.S.-led command.

In another dramatic move, Washington could push Afghanistan and Pakistan to undertake joint military patrols with U.S. and NATO troops along the Afghan-Pakistan border, in an attempt to end cross-border raids and deny the Taliban its safe havens inside Pakistan.

Finally, U.S. commanders may also push for a winter offensive against the Taliban in a bid to change the pace and direction of the war.

The reviews are urgently seeking a new strategy to conduct the Afghan war.

“Absent a broader international and inter-agency approach to the problem there, it is my professional opinion that no amount of troops, in no amount of time, can ever achieve all the objectives we seek,” Adm. Mullen told lawmakers.

“And, frankly, we are running out of time.” (Peter Goodspeed)

DEFEATS IN AFGHANISTAN: Then & Now
NATO Lessons: 1880 UK defeat at Maiwand-Afghanistan
Is NATO committing suicide in Afghanistan.
NATO lessons: UK defeat at Maiwind may shed some light on today’s situation.
SOLUTIONS FOR AFGHANS Saving the Pashtuns of Afghania from Afghanistan. Eradicating the Pashtun plight and ending occupation.

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