| NEW YORK | RUPEE NEWS | August 6th, 2008 | Moin Ansari | The closer that India gets to the USA, the more it pushes away China and Russia both very important states in Asia. There is a lot of fluff on the Indo-US nuclear deal. India had to give up considerable control over its facilities and programs and strategy for a nebulous commercial deal with American nuclear producers. By trampling over the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty, the US and the Nuclear Suppliers group is now making an exception for India. This leave a gaping hole in the proliferation strategy of the US and other countries. If it can make an exception of India then why not for Iran, or Pakistan or Israel? For making a multi-billion Dollar sale to India, the US deal prohibits the country from ever testing a nuclear device. Pakistan already has a Nuclear Deal with China! India tried to raise expectations to portend failure!

China does not regard India as an equal, but as a ‘South Asian regional power’, which can and should be ‘contained’. This is evident from its demand that India should give up its nuclear weapons — a view echoed by its Stalinist comrades in India.

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While forging a Sino-US axis during the Nixon, Carter and Clinton Administrations, primarily to contain and confront India and even Vietnam, the Chinese have cried foul every time India has sought to promote multilateral cooperation with democracies like the US and Japan. They have used force on territorial disputes with neighbours like Vietnam and the Philippines.

Beijing’s recent assertiveness in laying claim to Tawang and, indeed, the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, make it clear that like with its other neighbours, China will settle its border problems only when it detects that a weakened and isolated India will yield to its demands. China will continue to boost Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and missile potential and provide that country with its latest weapons, built with technology obtained primarily from Russia and, to a lesser extent, from countries like Israel and Ukraine.

China has agreed to provide and co-produce 250 advanced JF 7 fighter aircraft and supply two squadrons of J 10 multi-role attack aircraft to Pakistan. The Chinese received design assistance and the engine for the fighter aircraft from the Russians. The J 10 is based on the design of the Israeli LAVI fighter and on know-how of the F 16, which China obtained clandestinely from F 16 fighters supplied by the US to Pakistan. Here again, the aircraft engine is Russian.

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The Indians

‘India’s strategy was to play for the day when the United States would get over its huffing and puffing, and with a sigh of exhaustion or a shrug of resignation, accept a nuclear armed India as a fully responsible and a fully entitled member of the international community’, wrote Strobe Talbott, the Former US Deputy Secretary of State, on the 1998 nuclear tests undertaken by India in his book  Engaging India. And perhaps the day has now come.

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On July 31, America s chief negotiator on the Indo-US nuke deal Nicolas Burns said, We had to make this an exceptional agreement for India because of India s trust, its credibility, the fact that it has promised to create a state of the art reprocessing facility monitored fully by the International Atomic Energy Agency, (IAEA) because it has an export control regime in place and because it has not proliferated its own nuclear technology. We can’t say that about Pakistan.

Then on August 1, the India-specific safeguards agreement was approved by the Board of Governors of the IAEA- another crucial step towards the success of the implementation of the deal.

Personally, I think the deal will do India good. And not just for the millions of Indians who would get additional power but also to position India as a powerful player in South Asia. Concerns that India could use uranium reserves for military purposes or the United States would use access to India for building up its presence in the sub continent are perhaps legit but what cannot be ignored is how India has grown as a strong international player.

For several decades, India and the United States were not seen as natural allies. One reason was because they both were on good terms with the other s enemy. America often ignored India, but the 1998 nuclear tests undertaken by India, made America sit up and pay attention.

Few years later, America sat across the table from India and chalked out the Indo-US nuke deal. The deal created a huge uproar in India even threatening the collapse of the Manmohan Singh government. But on August 22, 2008, Singh walked out of the Parliament with an overwhelming majority in the trust vote and television channels in India used the music of the popular Bollywood song Singh is King as a background score.

Indo-US Nuke deal and Pakistan
The deal not only plays a significant role in the upcoming Indian elections but has also found its place in the run up to the US Presidential elections in November. …During my visit to the United States Pacific Command (PACOM) situated at Pearl Harbour in Hawaii, a military high command that monitors conflicts in the Asia Pacific region, Chief of Staff, Major General Stephen Douglas Tom, told me that Kashmir was one of the biggest concern areas for USA and with both India and Pakistan gaining nuclear technology, this conflict could spark off a nuclear war.

We closely watched how India reacted to the bombings in Pakistan and Benazir Bhutto s assassination. Our men were monitoring the media out of India to gauge the mood in the sub continent especially since both are nuclear power states, said Major General Tom.

During our discussions, I found that while PACOM talks to India, Pakistan is directly linked to the Central Command (CENTCOM) based in Washington, giving them an edge and an easy access to the White House. As an Indian I found this biased and confusing especially since it is no secret that Pakistan has often been favoured by Washington.

But all that might change if Democratic nominee Barack Obama becomes the next President. Though Mc Cain considers Pakistan a close ally in the Afghanistan war, Obama has vowed that if elected, he would authorize military operations on Pakistani soil against extremists threatening US interests if the Islamabad government is unwilling or unable to do so.

We are not going to get Afghanistan right until we get our Pakistan policy right, Obama said to the US press. He may have softened a little after his meeting with Gilani recently but he seems still committed to annihilating terror elements out of the region and is sure to have some reservations for supporting Pakistan s nuclear programme.

Also with India s growing popularity in the United States and with the elections looming large in Uncle Sam s land, the Presidential hopefuls are doing all they can to pocket the Indian vote bank. While the Republicans have always favoured the deal, Obama earlier showed some reservations. But with most US Indians being staunch republican supporters, Obama is saying just the right things to win them on his side. In a recent interview to an Indian magazine, Obama said, I am reluctant to seek changes in the nuclear deal. His strong stance against terrorism in Pakistan has also gone well with Indians.

Third Eye: China
The power equation in South Asia between India and Pakistan has often been balanced by a very important player in the region- China. No deal in the region can be successful without gauging the mood in Beijing. Experts in China see the American support for the nuclear deal with India as a measure to curb China s growing power in the region. India, through this deal, would be a US ally and may provide USA with valuable resources should it need to use them to put China in check, say experts.

Through my travels in China, it was evident that China is distinctly not happy with the Indo-US nuke deal. After India conducted its first nuclear test in May 1974, Beijing moved quickly to help built Islamabad s nuclear weapon programme so that Pakistan came on par with India in nuclear technology.

As America favours India for a nuclear deal and may not do so with Pakistan, it would be difficult for China to publicly pledge its support to Pakistan but many fear that once again perhaps invisible China would help Islamabad maintain parity with New Delhi.

Also, a non-committal China in a statement at the IAEA very cleverly supported Pakistan s case. It said the world should treat in a balanced manner various countries aspiration for nuclear power.
China has set an ambitious target of 60 gigawatts by 2020 in its domestic nuclear expansion plans. Its current nuclear capacity is only 9 GW- less than 2 per cent of its total installed power generation capacity.

But the Chinese government is confident of reaching this target in what will be the fastest nuclear build-out the world has ever seen. Even today, China s nuclear programme is far advanced than most countries in the world and the Communist Party of China will probably not give any reason for US inspectors to set foot on its land.

In a report released by Pentagon last year, the Americans have voiced their concerns over China s deployment of mobile land and sea-based ballistic nuclear missiles that have the range to hit the US.
Also concerns about the build-up of missiles across the Taiwan Strait, China s recent anti-satellite missile test and its development of technologies to deny access in space have also left the US worried.
As a senior official at PACOM said, We have no idea what China is up to and that makes us jittery.

The finish line may be out of sight, but we do know who is leading the rat pack. Rat race to nuke post Ruhi Khan Principal Correspondent, NDTV Monday, August,4 2008 (Mumbai)

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