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US-Iran eyeball to eyeball: Who blinked? by Moin Ansari

The answer may be Israel.

NEW YORK|July 18th, 2008|RUPEE NEWS|Moin Ansari: With Israel’s exercises 900 miles into the Mediterranean, and the Bush bluster of “all options on the table”, all is quiet in the Gulf. Apparently the Americans in a 180 degree U-turn decided to meet with the “axis of evil” terrorist state and then all of sudden we hear that the epitome of evil Mr. Ahemedinijad will be presented with the resume of a US diplomat stationed in Tehran. Tehran? TEHRAN? Yes Tehran, the very same capital of the country that took over the US Embassy and threw trash out in the American flag after walking over it.

it is culumination of the various moves on the chessboard by the US such as the Israeli Air Force excercise with Greece in anticipation of finally engaging in formal talks with Iran for a broader concensus of accepting the ground reality. A recognition of the changes that have been created by the invasion of Iraq and Afghnistan which is the empowerment of Iran’s allies in Iraq and Afghanistan, and at the same time of the availablity of the US forces to mount an action on both sides of Iran’s border by the long term presence of US troops. Of the sucess of the holding action of Iran’s proxy hezbollah against the US proxy of Israel.
The recognition of Iran’s production capacity of the second largest oil Producer and its ablity to influence the price of oil, and finally the debate within Iran of its various power centers on recognising the insurmountable odds of keeping the Americans at bay unless the Ayatullahs risk destablization with hundreds of millions of Dollars.

Now the time has come for Iran to demonstrate the concessions it will have to make on the enrichment programme.

I seriously expect the opening of a US interest section legation in Tehran and reciprocation, once both get beyond the initial diplimatic manouvering. There is another long cold war on the horizon and this time Iran playing with few weapons of mass destruction as deterrence but rather in tandem with its Iraqi Shia and Kurdish Allies and its various proxies for centerstage. Mr. Abbas Anis: Analyst of International Relations who has lived in Iran during the revolutoin

So what are the reasons for the Bush Administration’s turn about? Apparently they thought it over and decided that the US cannot fight four wars at the same time. With the fiasco in Lebanon, Iraq on slow cook, and oil reaching $150 a barrel the Bush legacy was in serious jeopardy of being remembered only for $50 per gallon of oil (just like the Carter presidency is remembered only for 24% interests).

With an armistice with Iran, the US may continue its war in Afghanistan with ferocity and Iran may stay neutral—and actually may help the NATO effort by assisting the Indians who are building a road to connect their Chahbahar port to Kabul and beyond.

Peace hasn’t broken out in the Gulf. The US and Israel may take advantage of the geopolitical situation when and if they deem it in their interests. Right now it seems that the US has determined that Afghansitan is more important.

July 18, 2008 U.S. Considers Opening a Diplomatic Post in Iran By ELAINE SCIOLINO and SHERYL GAY STOLBERG

PARIS – The Bush administration is considering establishing an American diplomatic presence in Iran for the first time since relations were severed during the 444-day occupation of the American Embassy in Tehran nearly three decades ago, European and American officials said on Thursday.

The idea would be to open a so-called interest section, rather than a fully staffed embassy, with American diplomats who could issue visas to Iranians seeking to visit the United States. But the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity under diplomatic rules, cautioned that the idea had not been approved by the White House and could be delayed or blocked by opposition within the administration.

The proposal comes as the White House is adopting new tactics in dealing with Iran. With six months left in office, Mr. Bush and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice appear to be looking for new ways to reach out to the Iranian people as the administration tries to bring a peaceful resolution to the impasse over Iran’s nuclear program.

On Saturday, William J. Burns, the State Department’s third-ranking official, is to arrive in Geneva to participate, along with European Union nations, in talks with Iran aimed at persuading it to suspend uranium enrichment in exchange for economic and political incentives. The talks are a first. A department spokesman, Sean McCormack, said on Thursday that an interest section would not be discussed.

One senior European official said that Mr. Burns, the under secretary of state for political affairs, had told a number of his counterparts in Tokyo in recent weeks that Ms. Rice was committed to moving forward on the decision to put American diplomats in Tehran, but that the decision still faced opposition from conservatives opposed to any kind of closer ties with Iran.

“My feeling is that the decision was more or less taken and the administration’s problem was when and how to announce it,” the official said. “They want to do it, but for domestic political reasons they don’t know how and when, and maybe even if, they can do it.”

Another senior official from another European country who deals directly with Iran went further, saying Ms. Rice had indicated in recent private discussions that the decision was already final, and that it was only a matter of time before it was announced.

In Washington on Thursday, the White House and State Department declined to comment, saying they would not discuss internal deliberations. But they did not discount reports that the idea was under consideration.

“We are always looking for ways to engage the people of Iran more, make it easier for them to get visas,” said Gordon D. Johndroe, the deputy White House press secretary.

Iran, for its part, seems to have embraced the idea of a higher American diplomatic presence.

“We welcome any move which would expand human relations,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said on state television this week.

Mr. Bush has long said he has no complaint with the Iranian people. His issue, he has said, is with the Iranian government. Ms. Rice echoed that sentiment last week in an interview with the Persian-language service of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty. She said no final decision had been made on an interest section, “but we are looking for ways that Iranians can have access to the United States.”

There is a small interest section in Tehran administered by the Swiss, who represent American interests in Iran. The Swiss do not have the authority to grant United States visas. Last week, Mr. Burns testified before Congress and was asked about the possibility of establishing an interest section. He seemed to suggest it was under consideration.

He said the idea “is an interesting one, and it’s one that’s worth looking at carefully.”