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1) Iran will block the Gulf of Hormuz pushing the price of oil from $250 per barrel (the day the attack starts) to $500 per barrel when the Gulf of Hormuz is blocked. This translates to at least $50 or more for a gallon of gasoline at the pump.

2) Sorties of small gun boats armed with Exocet copies will be unleashed at the American Air carft carriers creating huge casualties for America. Iran has honed a swarming tactic, in which small and lightly armed speedboats come at far larger warships from different directions.

3) Shahab missles from hardened silos will begin reaining down on American Air bases as well as on Israel proper. Iran has already affirmed that it will target Israel’s Dimona reactor. Nuclear leaks from the reactor may unleash another holocaust for Jews and Arabs alike.

4) Hizbullah will begin raining Qasam rockets on Northern israel and apparently had the ability to target as far south as Tel Aviv. During the war in Labanon, all of Norhtern Israel spent more than a month in shelters. This time it may be worse.

5) Israel’s worst nighmare may  be a full scale attack by Syria as well as from the Palestinians in Jordan, West bank and Gaza.

6) Muqtada Sadar and other pro-Iranian groups in Baghdad will rise up in rebellion in Iraq and make life hard not only for the pro-Iranian Maliki government but also for the forces in occupation. Iraq is declared a pro-Iranian Islamic republic.

7) The Pakhtuns may rally and attack Kabul and overthrow the Vichey government of Mr. Hamid Karzai. NATO and ISAF unable to sustain the farce of an Afghan government pack up and go home.

A nuclear attack on Iran may change things forever. The soaring oil pricies beyond $50 per gallon bring unmentionable misery on the innocent people throughtout the world. American trasnportation comes to a halt and air conditioned homes and offices are left without comfort. Hospitals are unable to provide services and schools are closed.

9) The world as we know it comes to an end. 

US air bases aour Iran are targets for Iranian retaliation

Iran threatens to hit 32 US bases, Israel

Map of possible war with Iran

 
TEHRAN, July 12: Iran would destroy Israel and 32 US military bases in the Middle East if the Islamic Republic was attacked over its disputed nuclear programme, a senior Iranian official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

Map of US facilities around Iran

The Islamic Republic and Israel have been embroiled in an escalating war of words in recent weeks, increasing speculation of military confrontation and helping to send global oil prices to record highs.

Iranian missile tests this week further stoked tension and rattled financial markets.

Map of more than 50 US air bases in the Middle East

“The US knows full well that with the smallest move against Iran, Israel and 32 US military bases in the region would not be out of the reach of our missiles and would be destroyed,” the semi-official Fars News Agency quoted Mojtaba Zolnour as saying in a speech.

Zolnour is the deputy of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s representative in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards.

Israel, long assumed to have its own atomic arsenal, has sworn to prevent Iran from emerging as a nuclear-armed power.

Iranian missile range

Washington has said it wants diplomacy to end the row but has not ruled out military action should that fail.

Iran, the world’s fourth largest oil exporter, has vowed to strike back at Israel, US interests and shipping in the region if it is attacked, threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for about 40 per cent of globally traded oil.

Iranian target maps. Don't wait for the attack to begin on Iran. The war has already started and Iran has been facing the brunt of this for years. The Government of Baluchistan setup in the Middle Eastern capital along with support to Jundallah as well as the Kurds, Arabs (Khuzistan) and the Baluch are only some of the insurgencies raging in Iran.

On Wednesday, Iran said it tested nine long- and medium-range missiles, including one which it says could reach Israel and US bases.

Some US facilities across the Gulf are little more than 200km from Iran’s coast. The United States has air and naval bases in nearby Arab states, including Qatar and Bahrain.

“Today the enemies know that they lack the power to confront Iran’s missile attacks,” ISNA news agency quoted Zolnour as saying.

Iran in crosshair map

Earlier on Saturday, Iran’s government spokesman, Gholamhossein Elham, warned the United States and Israel it would be “madness and stupidity” to attack Iran.

Elham said Iran was ready for talks in “fair conditions” but would not accept giving up what it sees as its nuclear rights.—Reuters

Accroding to Janes as reported by Reuters.The following are some details about Iran’s military capability. The totals include equipment held by the Revolutionary Guards, which operate on land, at sea and in the air:

* ARMED FORCES:

Iran has 545,000 personnel in active service. Major General Ataollah Salehi is the armed forces chief.

* ARMY: The army comprises 350,000 men, including 220,000 conscripts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, viewed as the most loyal guardian of the ruling system, has another 125,000 men. In 2004 the army was organised in four corps, with four armoured divisions and six infantry divisions.

– There are nearly 1,700 tanks including some 100 Zulfiqar locally produced main battle tanks. A large number of Iran’s tanks are elderly British-made Chieftains and U.S.-made M-60s.

– Soviet-made T-54 and T-55s, T-59s, T-62s, and T-72s were also part of the inventory, all captured from the Iraqis or acquired from North Korea and China.

– The latest Military Balance report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies says that some of the tanks’ serviceability may be in doubt.

– There are around 640 armoured personnel carriers. There are 8,196 artillery pieces of which 2,010 are towed, and over 310 are self-propelled.

* MISSILES:

– In a 2007 parade to mark the anniversary of 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war, Iran showed its Shahab-3 missile, saying it could travel 2,000 km (1,250 miles) — enabling it to hit Israel and U.S. bases in the region. Another missile at the parade, the Ghadr-1, can reach targets 1,800 km (1,125 miles) away. It was believed to be the first time it has been shown publicly.

* NAVY: There are 18,000 naval personnel. The navy has its headquarters at Bandar-e Abbas. Iran’s navy has three Russian Kilo class submarines, three frigates and two corvettes.

– As of 2001 the regular Iranian navy was in a state of overall obsolescence, and in poor shape because they had not been equipped with modern ships and weapons. The readiness of the three frigates is doubtful, and the two nearly 40-year-old corvettes do not have sophisticated weapons.

– In late 2007 Iran launched a new locally made submarine and a navy frigate named as Jamaran. Jane’s Defence Weekly reported last November that Iran was also building missile-launching frigates copied from 275-tonne Kaman fast attack missile craft originally purchased from France in the late 1970s.

* AIR FORCE:

– The air force has 52,000 personnel and 281 combat aircraft. However, serviceability may be as low as around 60 percent for U.S. aircraft types and 80 percent for Russian aircraft. There are F-14 and MiG 29 aircraft. There are also some aircraft impounded from Iraq — Russian-built Sukhoi Su-24s and 25s. Iran also has transport aircraft and helicopters.

– In September 2007, Iran said it had tested two new domestically-produced jet fighters. State television said the Saegheh was a new generation of the Azarakhsh (Lightning) fighter. Iran said it was being built on an industrial scale. Sources: Reuters/Military Balance 2008/www.globalsecurity.org/Jane’s Defence Weekly

The Coming Catastrophe? The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran by David DeBatto Global Research, June 23, 2008Global Research Editor’s note

We bring to the attention of our readers David DeBatto’s scenario as to what might occur if one of the several contingency plans to attack Iran, with the participation of Israel and NATO, were to be carried out. While one may disagree with certain elements of detail of the author’s text, the thrust of this analysis must be taken seriously.

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“Israel has said a strike on Iran will be “unavoidable” if the Islamic regime continues to press ahead with alleged plans for building an atom-bomb.” (London Daily Telegraph, 6/11/200

“Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany joined President Bush on Wednesday in calling for further sanctions against Iran if it does not suspend its uranium enrichment program.” Mr. Bush stressed again that “all options are on the table,” which would include military force. (New York Times, 6/11/200

We are fast approaching the final six months of the Bush administration. The quagmire in Iraq is in its sixth painful year with no real end in sight and the forgotten war in Afghanistan is well into its seventh year. The “dead enders” and other armed factions are still alive and well in Iraq and the Taliban in Afghanistan again controls most of that country. Gas prices have now reached an average of $4.00 a gallon nationally and several analysts predict the price will rise to $5.00-$6.00 dollars per gallon at the pump by Labor Day. This, despite assurances by some major supporters of the decision to invade Iraq that the Iraq war “will pay for itself” (Paul Wolfowitz) or that we will see “$20.00 per barrel” oil prices if we invade Iraq (Rupert Murdoch).

One thing the Pentagon routinely does (and does very well) is conduct war games. Top brass there are constantly developing strategies for conducting any number of theoretical missions based on real or perceived threats to our national security or vital interests. This was also done prior to the invasion of Iraq, but the Bush administration chose not to listen to the dire warnings about that mission given to him by Pentagon leaders, or for that matter, by his own senior intelligence officials. Nevertheless, war gaming is in full swing again right now with the bullseye just to the right of our current mess – Iran.

It’s no secret that the U.S. is currently putting the finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iranian nuclear and military facilities. With our ground forces stretched to the breaking point in Iraq and Afghanistan, none of the most likely scenarios involve a ground invasion. Not that this administration wouldn’t prefer to march into the seat of Shiite Islam behind a solid, moving line of M1 Abrams tanks and proclaim the country for democracy. The fact is that even the President knows we can’t pull that off any more so he and the neo-cons will have to settle for Shock and Awe Lite.

If we invade Iran this year it will be done using hundreds of sorties by carrier based aircraft already stationed in the Persian Gulf and from land based aircraft located in Iraq and Qatar. They will strike the known nuclear facilities located in and around Tehran and the rest of the country as well as bases containing major units of the Iranian military, anti-aircraft installations and units of the Revolutionary Guard (a separate and potent Iranian para-military organization).

Will this military action stop Iran’s efforts to develop nuclear weapons? Probably not. It will probably not even destroy all of their nuclear research facilities, the most sensitive of which are known to be underground, protected by tons of earth and reinforced concrete and steel designed to survive almost all attacks using conventional munitions. The Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard will most likely survive as well, although they will suffer significant casualties and major bases and command centers will undoubtedly be destroyed. However, since Iran has both a functioning Air Force, Navy (including submarines) and modern anti-aircraft capabilities, U.S. fighter-bombers will suffer casualties as well. This will not be a “Cake Walk” as with the U.S. led invasion of Iraq in 2003 when the Iraqi Army simply melted away and the Iraqi Air Force never even launched a single aircraft.

Not even close.

If the United States attacks Iran either this summer or this fall, the American people had better be prepared for a shock that may perhaps be even greater to the national psyche (and economy) than 9/11. First of all, there will be significant U.S. casualties in the initial invasion. American jets will be shot down and the American pilots who are not killed will be taken prisoner – including female pilots. Iranian Yakhonts 26, Sunburn 22 and Exocet missiles will seek out and strike U.S. naval battle groups bottled up in the narrow waters of the Persian Gulf with very deadly results. American sailors will be killed and U.S. ships will be badly damaged and perhaps sunk. We may even witness the first attack on an American Aircraft carrier since World War II.

That’s just the opening act.

Israel (who had thus far stayed out of the fray by letting the U.S. military do the heavy lifting) is attacked by Hezbollah in a coordinated and large scale effort. Widespread and grisly casualties effectively paralyze the nation, a notion once thought impossible. Iran’s newest ally in the region, Syria, then unleashes a barrage of over 200 Scud B, C and D missiles at Israel, each armed with VX gas. Since all of Israel is within range of these Russian built weapons, Haifa, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem and virtually all major civilian centers and several military bases are struck, often with a result of massive casualties.

The Israeli Air Force orders all three squadrons of their F-16I Sufa fighter/bombers into the air with orders to bomb Tehran and as many military and nuclear bases as they can before they are either shot down or run out of fuel. It is a one way trip for some of these pilots. Their ancient homeland lies in ruins. Many have family that is already dead or dying. They do not wait for permission from Washington, DC or U.S. regional military commanders. The Israeli aircraft are carrying the majority of their country’s nuclear arsenal under their wings.

Just after the first waves of U.S. bombers cross into Iranian airspace, the Iranian Navy, using shore based missiles and small, fast attack craft sinks several oil tankers in the Straits of Hormuz, sealing off the Persian Gulf and all its oil from the rest of the world. They then mine the area, making it difficult and even deadly for American minesweepers to clear the straits. Whatever is left of the Iranian Navy and Air Force harasses our Navy as it attempts minesweeping operations. More U.S casualties.

The day after the invasion Wall Street (and to a lesser extent, Tokyo, London and Frankfurt) acts as it always does in an international crisis – irrational speculative and spot buying reaches fever pitch and sends the cost of oil skyrocketing. In the immediate aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iran, the price of oil goes to $200.00 – $300.00 dollars a barrel on the open market. If the war is not resolved in a few weeks, that price could rise even higher. This will send the price of gasoline at the pump in this country to $8.00-$10.00 per gallon immediately and subsequently to even higher unthinkable levels.

If that happens, this country shuts down. Most Americans are not be able to afford gas to go to work. Truckers pull their big rigs to the side of the road and simply walk away. Food, medicine and other critical products are not be brought to stores. Gas and electricity (what is left of the short supply) are too expensive for most people to afford. Children, the sick and elderly die from lack of air-conditioned homes and hospitals in the summer. Children, the sick and elderly die in the winter for lack of heat. There are food riots across the country. A barter system takes the place of currency and credit as the economy dissolves and banks close or limit withdrawals.

Civil unrest builds.

The police are unable to contain the violence and are themselves victims of the same crisis as the rest of the population. Civilian rule dissolves and Martial Law is declared under provisions approved under the Patriot Act. Regular U.S. Army and Marine troops patrol the streets. The federal government apparatus is moved to an unknown but secure location. The United States descends into chaos and becomes a third world country. Its time as the lone superpower is over.

It doesn’t get any worse than this. Then the first Israeli bomber drops its nuclear payload on Tehran.

David DeBatto is a former U.S. Army Counterintelligence Special Agent, Iraqi war veteran and co-author the “CI” series from Warner Books and the upcoming “Counter to Intelligence” from Praeger Security International. Global Research Articles by David DeBatto