Kalabagh Dam dropped without discussion in parliament. Another diversionary tactic by the Pakistan Peoples Party to divert the attention of the nation from the food and energy crisis. Mujib ur Rehman Shami and Dr. Shahid Masud both claimed that this was simply a way for the PPPP to try to set the agenda of the news cycle.

The discussion of Kalabagh Dam cannot be held without a discussion of the Indus Water Treaty and the dams on the Pakistani rivers. Many maintain that the Indus Water treaty was inherintly unfair to Pakistan. India was handed over three rivers, and Pakistan the 4 rivers that emanate from Kashmir and beyond. However India is also building dams on Pakistan rivers. According to the original plan, Pakistan was to build a new dam every few years.

It is amazing that while the country is awash in a severe crisis of electricity, the Kalabagh Dam for which funding has been secured has now been cancelled by a minister (Federal Water and Power Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf ) in the PPPP government. The matter was not discussed in the National Assembly or the Senate. Seasoned PPPP politicians and compadre of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto said that that Minister Ashraf has lost his marbles. President Zia ul Haq cancelled the Indus Highway that had been planned by the team of Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto. During the Afghan war, the US could have been asked to build the Highway.  This was one of the worst blunders of the decade. Now Mr. Ashraf has announced the cancellation. The harbingers of democracy, the custodians of elections did not even find it fit to discuss this huge issue in the National Assembly. These are the planned dams on the Pakistani rivers.

PPP REVERSES ITSELF ON KBD. PAKISTAN WILL BUILD KALA DAMN

SOME BACKGROUND OF THE WATER SYSTEMS AND THE DISPUTE WITH INDIA OVER WATER

Water dispute between India and Pakistan
Another reason behind the dispute over Kashmir is water. Kashmir is the origin point for many rivers and tributaries of the Indus River basin. They include Jhelum and Chenab which primarily flow into Pakistan while other branches – the Ravi, Beas and the Sutlej irrigate northern India. Pakistan has been apprehensive that in a dire need India under whose portion of Kashmir lies the origins and passage of the said rivers, would use its strategic advantage and withhold the flow and thus choke the agrarian economy of Pakistan. The Boundary Award of 1947 meant that the headworks of the chief irrigation systems of Pakistan were left located in Indian Territory.

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960, which governs the sharing of the Himalayan rivers that are common to the two countries is a singular achievement in the area of India-Pakistan relations. Brokered by the World Bank in the 1950s, it took almost nine years before negotiators could agree on a deal. That both India and Pakistan needed development assistance from the World Bank created powerful incentives for a deal to be concluded. Pakistan won the exclusive use of the Indus and its eastern tributaries, while India retained the use of the western tributaries, and — this is where it gets interesting — restricted use of the eastern tributaries. Pakistan received a huge dollop of funding from the international community, including a not inconsequential sum from India, to develop its own irrigation system.

Besides helping lubricate and broker the deal, the World Bank signed a subset of the treaty and resolved to provide neutral umpiring when the treaty’s institutional bilateral mechanism failed to resolve disputes. In the sort of language that international diplomats use, the escalation process started with a question, to be discussed by the bilateral Permanent Indus Commission; which became a difference if the bilateral process failed, requiring the appointment of a ‘neutral expert’; and ultimately became a dispute to be resolved by a ‘court of arbitration’ Foreign Affairs Sharing the Indus

Furthermore, the British commission in charge of Partition handed Gurdaspur district over to India, despite being a Muslim majority district of Punjab, as they thought India to be more favourable for most. The British claims were that if India did not control Gurdaspur, then Pakistan could simply cut off water supplies to Amritsar, though they could not justify just the opposite happening. The result was of many Muslims unexpectedly forced to migrate under harsh conditions, with Hindus and Sikhs killing, raping and mutilating many. However, Gurdaspur is the district in which all roads from India in Kashmir run, and thus, Pakistan alleges that the British effectively decided the fate of Kashmir by giving India a lifeline in Kashmir.

Pakistan also alleges that the British reasoning for handing over Gurdaspur (http://rupeenews.com/2008/05/25/gurdaspur-was-the-key-to-the-fraud-in-kashmir-accession/) was extremely biased, corrupted, flawed and unfair because while Pakistan was denied Gurdaspur district on the grounds of Indian water security, India maintained control over Pakistani water by retaining all the districts of Punjab in which major Pakistani rivers had their headwaters. Since Pakistan has always been an agriculture based country, it was in danger. Essentially this is seen as a veto power held by India over Pakistan agriculture. The Indus Waters Treaty signed in 1960 resolved most of these disputes over the sharing of water, calling for mutual cooperation in this regard. This treaty faced issues raised by Pakistan over the illegal construction of dams on the Indian side which limit water to the Pakistani side.

Govt has dropped KBD project for good:Ashraf * Water and Power minister says no more load shedding after August 14, 2009  Staff Report

LAHORE/ISLAMABAD: The government has dropped the Kalabagh Dam (KBD) project forever, as it is a controversial issue among the provinces, Federal Water and Power Minister Raja Pervaiz Ashraf said on Monday.

He told a press conference at WAPDA House that Sindh and NWFP had passed a resolution against the dam’s construction. “Kalabagh Dam is a controversial issue and the government does not want to hurt the people of any province,” he said.

Load shedding: Earlier, addressing a ceremony to open bidding proposals for the installation of two separate 500 megawatts power projects at Faisalabad and Dadu, he said load shedding in the country would end by August 14, 2009. He said the government would utilise the power crisis to generate more electricity.

He said bids for another 1,200MW power project had also been invited and would be opened in the presence of media on June 30. “We are also trying to pursue hydroelectric power generation, as well as alternative energy systems such as wind and solar energy,” he added.

Ashraf said the government was undertaking all-out efforts to cope with load shedding by adopting a rational mechanism to generate more electricity through the private sector.

Two companies: Earlier, under the Private Power and Infrastructure Board, two companies were selected for generating 1,000MW electricity through thermal power plants.

Engro Chemical Pakistan had the highest bid for a power plant at Dadu, while Rupa Energy Private Limited had the highest bid for the Faisalabad power plant. After the technical proposals are approved, the bidders will apply to the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority for setting a tariff.

The Kalabagh Dam issue has emerged as the most controversial subject in the 50 years history of Pakistan. A Multipurpose project, aiming to control and use flood water for irrigation purpose and to produce inexpensive hydel power—a purely technical subject falling in the domain of professional engineers—was discussed and debated by mostly ignorant politicians who opposed the Dam more for political reasons than for any technical defect in the project.

Kalabagh Dam has seen many ups and downs during the last 12 years when politicians ruled the country. whosrever came into power—PPP headed by Benazir Bhutto or PML led by Mian Nawaz Sharif, fully convinced of the usefulness of the project for the national economy, wanted to go ahead with the project but could not do so because of the opposition of some regional parties led by the Awani National Party (ANP).

The former Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif announced a national agenda of his priorities in his historic speech after nuclear explosions in May 98. But soon ANP with other political group against or annoyed by Nawaz Sharif personally exploited the situation and started a anti dam movement. Main opponents are the ANP leaders of the NWFP who, after having been defeated on Pukhtoonkhwa, have found a new issue to settle score with their one time ally, Nawaz Sharif. They are also get support from all those vested interests who feel threatened by the national agenda of the Prime Minister aiming to take over all illegal land from their possession in violation of earlier land reforms for distribution amongst the landless haris.

The ousted Prime Minister, in the meanwhile, created so many other crisis for himself that he could not implement any of his plans. Experts are, however, unanimous about the imperative need to augment the water and power resources of the country and there is no better way to do the needful than have the Kalabagh Dam in place without any further delay. Addressing a press conference the life member of PEC and Incharge of Water Distribution Accord, Mehmoodul Hasan Siddiqui and another PEC member and Head of Hydraulics and Irrigation department of University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore, Professor Abdus Sattar Shakir advocated the construction of Kalabagh Dam and said that agriculture sector require water while industrial sector requires prompt power supply at cheaper rate and both purposes can be served with the construction of Kalabagh Dam. Construction of Kalabagh Dam, with an approximate cost of 5.5 billion dollars would culminate in an average annual economic benefit of Rs. 33.2 billion to the government and would enable us to generate hydel power which is much cheaper than thermal and nuclear’, they said.

Shakir said that Kalabagh Dam which, according to the new design, would be having a height of 915 feet above sea level, with a storage capacity of 6.1 million Acre Feet (MAF), water would be able to generate 2400 Mega Watt hydel power which can be maximized up to 3600. M.W.

Siddiqui said that in the Water Apportionment Accord 1991, there is an built provision for Kalabagh Dam as allocation of live water through our irrigation system has been enhanced from 103 Million Acre Feet (MAF) to 110 MAF which would be distributed among the provinces with a 37 per cent each of this allocation to both Punjab and Sindh while 14 and 12 per cent to N.W.F.P. and Balochistan respectively for agriculture sector promotion.

“But if we fail to enhance water storage capacity, then we would only be redistributing water shortage among the provinces which has been done with much difficulty in the past”. He said that sedimentation process is gradually decreasing the storage capacity of Mangla (9.68 MAF), Tarbela (5.34 MAF) and Chashma (0.78 MAF) which totally comes around to 15.74 MAF.

They said that our rivers run with 150 MAF water out of which 43 MAF usually goes into sea annually and we could only be able to store 6.1 MAF water if Kalabagh Dam is constructed. About objections of the Sindh regarding ruination of land in the wake of abundant presence of salty water at sea coasts he said, still rest of the water that is 43 MAF-61 MAF would go into the sea.

There can be no two opinion that Pakistan is in dire need of efficient water management and supply of cheap electricity. Dams are the way to meet this need. But this dam has become a bone of contention, on the one side of which is the federal government and the Punjab, and on the other the rest of the three provinces, whose assemblies had passed resolutions against the project before the October 12 action. Therefore, it has to be handled very carefully because it has the potential to jolt the federation. The official statement before the LHC talks about efforts to build consensus on the scheme among the provinces. Hopefully, that is actually the case, although there is nothing publicly visible. It is advisable that the Musharraf government should give a comprehensive account of its policy towards the Kalabagh Dam before it erupts into another controversy.

ISLAMABAD, Jan 17: President Gen Pervez Musharraf on Tuesday announced that the construction of Bhasha dam would start next month to be followed by four others, including the Kalabagh dam, by 2016.

“This is time for decision. This is time for action. We cannot delay any more to build big water reservoirs,” he said in an address to the nation over radio and television.

Gen Musharraf said being the president of the country and representing the entire nation he would avoid taking decisions without consensus.

It is against this backdrop, he declared, that Munda, Kalabagh, Akori and Kurrum Tangi dams would be built after the Bhasha dam with a view to removing the growing shortage of water and power in the country.

He advocated immediate construction of Kalabagh dam as its feasibility study and structural design were ready, but assured that “since there are doubts and apprehensions about Kalabagh in Sindh and to some extent in NWFP, it is not immediately being undertaken”.

Yet, the president said, he would continue trying to convince the people of Sindh and NWFP about the need for the Kalabagh dam and asked them “not to play in the hands of vested interest”.

“Kalabagh is extremely necessary for farmers and the people of Sindh and if they continue to oppose it, eventually their lands will go dry creating a huge problem for the country,” he stressed.

He said the government cannot keep quiet over the wastage of 35-40 per cent of water every year and added that there would be fair distribution of water among provinces.

“The construction of new dams is the most important issue today to sustain roughly 7 per cent GDP growth annually,” he said, adding that there was an urgent need of area intensification to improve the agricultural output, especially in Sindh.

The president was of the view that if there was no proper management of the available water during Kharif and Rabi crops, things would worsen. New dams, he said, were necessary for both agriculture and obtaining the required electricity.

“Once the country got increased hydropower, it will help people purchase electricity on nominal charges compared to expensive thermal power.”

He quoted a World Bank report which says Pakistan’s water resources are rapidly running dry and the country needs large dams, particularly the Kalabagh dam. According to the report, every new dam will substantially add to the country’s GDP and that Pakistan must look into the issue seriously.

“But unfortunately the most vehement opposition to Kalabagh comes from Sindh which is on the low riparian,” he pointed out.

Pakistan, he said, needed to effectively utilize the water of Jhelum, Chenab and Indus rivers and added that over 33 million acres of land was cultivable which required huge amount of water that would only come through major dams.

He cited examples of China, India, Iran and Turkey where a number of new dams were being built. He warned that the existing water shortage of 9 million acre feet (MAF) would reach 25MAF if new dams were not undertaken.

“The projected shortage of water in 2020 will be 20MAF and that is why we need to have minimum two big dams by 2030,” he emphasized.

“It is the question of life and death, especially for Sindh. Therefore, I appeal to you not to listen to those who are against the building of big dams,” he asked the people of Sindh.

All the three committees working on the issue –- parliamentary committee headed by Nisar Memon, technical committee led by A.N.G Abbasi and the foreign consultant group — have concluded that the construction of Kalabagh, Bhasha and other big dams is highly important for the country. These committees also called for adequately implementing the 1991 Water Accord.

The president rejected notions that Sindh would go dry and damage would be caused to the districts of Mardan, Nowshera, Swabi, etc., if the Kalabagh dam was built.

He said the people of Badin and Thatta were weeping because of the acute water shortage. “And those who oppose Kalabagh are distorting facts; they are not the friends of Sindhis,” he said and added that the required amount of water would go downstream Kotri and that about 10,000mw of additional electricity would be available after the construction of the dam.

Currently, the president said, 83 per cent and 17 per cent water was available for Kharif and Rabi crops, respectively. After the construction of Kalabagh, the two crops would get 60 per cent and 40 per cent water, respectively.

He said sea intrusion would stop and tail-end growers would get increased quantity of water in Sindh after the Kalabagh dam and this would also help release additional water to the Chutiari dam.

Gen Musharraf said that no big dam could be built on Jhelum river as it already had Mangla dam on it. Chenab was not fit for any dam owing to less water availability, he said, adding that the only option left was to construct a dam on Indus and this requirement could be fulfilled by Kalabagh dam.

Bhasha dam, he said, would get water from glaciers at Chilas. Katzara dam at Skardu would also receive water from glaciers, while Kalabagh dam would get water by monsoon rains and that too in big quantity.

“Therefore, this is the most suitable dam and I would certainly succeed in convincing my Sindhi brothers on it,” he asserted.

“I will not allow Sindhis to face destruction by not having a dam like the Kalabagh. I am a Sindhi myself and I would never go against my province.”

“Had Punjab been against Sindh, it would not have given additional 6,000 cusecs of water to Sindh,” President Musharraf said.

He said the height of the Kalabagh dam would be 915 feet while Nowshera and Swabi were situated at a height of 940 feet. As such fears of having water-logging and inundation in those areas had no foundation, he added.

CABINET: Earlier, the cabinet decided that work on Bhasha and Munda dams would be started next month. It resolved that reservations on Kalabagh dam would continue to be addressed until a ‘viable decision’ was reached on it.

“Work on Bhasha and Munda dams will start in the first or second week of February,” said Information Minister Shaikh Rashid Ahmed while briefing reporters about the meeting which was held with Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz in the chair. Presiding over the meeting, the prime minister said that the need for water reservoirs was paramount for the country’s economy and agriculture.

Every province, he claimed, would get its due share of water.

Since more than a half-century, the giant dam project of Kalabagh, on the Indus River, keeps on bringing about controversies in Pakistan. They have recently been fuelled by the announcement, by the central government, of its will to revive the job. The arguments concern the economical need to build the facility as well as its social and environmental impacts. They become further complicated by political issues in the bosom of the delicate balance of the Pakistan federal State. This article will try to explain the main data.

The dam

It is a earth filled dam, with a total volume of 26 millions cubic meters. Its height will reach 79 m, for a length of 3,35 km. Its gross storage capacity is 9,8 cubic kilometers for a live storage capacity 7,5 cubic kilometres.

It will be built near Mianwali (Punjab province), at three hours South-West from Islamabad by road. The average flow of the Indus River at this place is 110 cubic kilometers/year, made up of 72 % from the Higher Indus, 25 % from the Kabul River and 3 % from the Soan River.

Project history

The first studies date back from 1953-54. A site, now known as site B, was chosen 4 km downstream of the confluence of the Indus and Soan rivers, at 13 km upstream from the city of Kalabagh. The preliminary feasibility study ended in 1956. A second project was proposed by experts in 1966, which included deep sediment sluices to avoid rapid loss of storage capacity. At the same time, the Water And Power Development Authority (WAPDA) evaluated a second site (site A) 3 km downstream of site B. In 1972, a new feasibility study proposed a third site (site C) upstream of site B. A fourth one (site D), upstream of the confluence of the Indus with the Soan river was also proposed. It was further followed by four other sites (CE, E, F and G). In 1975, a eight volumes synthesis of the various studies was proposed to the government. The following step was the sending, in June 1980, of a mission of the World Bank, which will give its agreement to the project. In 1982, Kalabagh Consultants were fielded to carry out Project Planning, Detailed Design and preparation of Contract Documents. The United Nation Development Program (UNDP) gave its support in 1984, and the building was scheduled for the middle of 1987. But the veto of the Southern Provinces will stop the project, and, in the present state, the dam will not be completed until 2011.

power sourcesof Pakistan are thermal plants (7,77 GW) and hydro power plants(4,83 GW), with a small nuclear production (137 MW). The main producers are WAPDA (85 %) and Karachi Electric Supply Corporation (KESC, 13 %). The demand is growing at an average rate of about 7 % annually, leading to energy shortages. The peak capacity shortage often reaches 30 % of the installed capacity. Power consumption per capita is, at the present time, 311 kWh/year (36 % more than in India).

Oil products necessary to the running of thermal plants are 75 % imported. The Thar Desert shelters 22 billion tons of coal. The identified hydroelectric potential of the country is estimated to be about 38 GW, of which 13 % are exploited at the present time.

The power plant associated to the Kalabagh dam will have an electrical powerof 3,6 GW, and will supply current to 70 million people. The annual production will be 11,4 TWh. Conjunctive operation with the Tarbela damwill add 600 MW of peaking capability and additional 336 TWh of annual generation.

Water supply

Usable rivers have an average annual flow of 175 cubic kilometers, of which 130 (74 %) are used for irrigation. The per capita water availability is 1 200 cubic meters per year at present (against 5 000 in 1947). Installed dams store 9 % of the total annual water inflows (33 % in India). The live storage capacity of Kalabagh reservoir, 7,5 cubic kilometers, represents 7 % of the total inflow. The incoming flow will be maintained excepted during 40 to 50 days at high flood period, where it will be used to refill the dam.

The dam must allow for the irrigation of 100 000 square kilometers, mainly in Punjab. Sindh province would get an additional flow of about 2,6 cubic kilometers in accordance with the 1991 Inter Provinces Water Accord. It is estimated that 30 to 40 % of the water released for irrigation is lost on account of seepage through the bed of the network of canals and channels.

Other advantages

Kalabagh dam will regulate the Indus River floods, which are responsible of the loss, in recent years, of 4 000 square kilometers of cultivated land in Thatta and Badin districts. Its building will provide 35 000 jobs. Lastly, Tarbela damwill soon be out of operation due to siltation in its reservoir and the seismic risks, and Kalabagh dam will take over from it.

Drawbacks

The sole Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) study for Kalabagh Dam was executed by WAPDA, through consultants, in 1984. Opponents to the dam’s building put forward some drawbacks:

Population displacements and need of infrastructures rebuilding:
120 000 people will have to be evacuated, to which 78 000 in Punjab and 42 000 in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The relocation would require the purchase of 300 square kilometers of irrigated land by the government. The town of Nowshera (200 000 inhabitants) is at risk of been flooded. Roads, railways and bridges will have to be rebuilt. Traffic on the Indus River will also be interrupted and the historic town of Makhad will disappear.

Cultivated land and mineral resources submersion:
The reservoir will have a length of 150 km and extend 16 km upstream of confluence between the Kabul River and the Indus. The project will submerge 5 670 square kilometers of land, of which 71 % in the Punjab and 28 % in the NWFP. 26 % of the submerged land is cultivated. The oil fields of Tut will also be inaccessible.

Effect on the river eco-system:
Indus River brings down, yearly, 600 million tons of silt, it is the fifth river in the world for the amount of sediment carried. Before the dams building, half of it fertilized the Indus plain and the other half deposited in the delta. Today, just 36 million tons pass the upstream barrages and dams. Some aquatic species will see the acceleration of their disappearance: the Palla fish (Tenualosa ilisha), the bullahan (Platanista minor, Indus blind dolphin) and the khagga (Arius thalassinus, Giant Catfish). Fishing produces only 500 tons, against 5 000 in 1950. Water quality is rapidly deteriorating. Upstream of the dam, the water table will rise, leading to increased salinity of the surrounding land.

Effects on the Indus delta:
Before the 1949 partition, the delta was spread over 35 square kilometers, with nine perennial streams. At the present time, its area has reduced to 25 square kilometers, with only two perennial streams. 2 400 square kilometers of riverine forests and 1 050 square kilometers of mangrove forest (a loss of 40 %) have disappeared. It is feared that the tides of the Arabian Sea will flood a growing area.

Effects on fauna and flora in the vicinity of the reservoir:
The dam can result in the destruction of wildlife sanctuaries, forests and natural lakes like
Manchar, Kinjhar, Hadero, Haleji and Chotiari. It will also affect migratory birds coming from Siberia and Kazakhstan.

Cost

The total cost of the dam is evaluated at 4,9 billions euros, of which 77,9 millions euros for land purchase. Since today, 16,5 millions euros have already been spend in studies for this project. The yearly awaited benefits will be 497 millions euros (87 % for power generation and 11 % for irrigation).

Political controversies

Since Punjab appears to be the great beneficiary of the Kalabaghdam building, Sindh, Baluchistan and NWFP strongly oppose this project. These three provinces have passed resolutions adverse to its realization. It also divides the poranks of the political paries, notably the ruling Pakistan Muslim League, the People Party and Nawaz Sharif’s party (opposition). The Muttahida Qaumi movement, who participate to the government, is the o,nly one to have expressed itself against, even at the cost of losing power. 56 % of the 140 millions of Pakistan inhabitants live in Punjab.

Pakistan President, General Pervez Musharraf has revived the project on 11 December 2005. Some are specukating that it could be a way of shifting the focus from widespread criticism of the government and the army’s inaction in the wake of the recent earthquake in Pakistan-administered Kashmir and some parts of the NWFP. The opponents have immediately mobilized, the Natioanl Awami Party, representing the Pashto ethnic group in the NWFP gathering 20 000 people in a demonstration at Jahangira at the end of December 2005.

For a detailed study of the dam: IUCN website
For the arguments of the pro-dam : Institute of Engineers Pakistan

The awaited advantages of the dam

Power generation

The main