The US and NATO is losing the war in Afghanistan, and ”all the kings horses and all the kings men” cannot put the humpty back together. Agregiously blaming Pakistan achieves only in aggravating the Pakistanis, weakening the alliance and exponentially increasing anti-Americanism.

KarzaisitanMr. Karzai’s writes does not extend to all of Kabul.

In an exaggerated claim Mike McConnell testified in Washington that Karzai controls about 30% of Afghanistan.

ISAFistan is shrinking. 10% of Afghanistan translated to only 36 districts of the 360 districts. 

Talibanistan is growing 

Past British retreats from Maiwind, Afghanistan and Delhi (in that order) are harbingers of a withdrawl from Kabul. 

“A big injection of foreign troops has failed to bring stability. The US has almost 50,000 soldiers in Afghanistan and – twice as many as in 2004 – while the UK has 7,700, mostly in Helmand. Another 2,200 US marines are due to arrive next month to combat an expected Taliban surge.”

But analysts believe the Taliban is successfully adapting the brutal guerrilla tactics that have served Iraqi insurgents so well. The six British soldiers killed in Helmand over the past three months were victims of roadside bombs. The drugs trade is swelling the Taliban coffers – according to the highest estimates, 40% of profits, or tens of millions of pounds, go to the insurgency. Attacks have made the main road from Kandahar to Kabul too dangerous for foreigners. Afghan truck drivers travel with armed escort. The Guardian (Declan Walsh in Islamabad and Richard Norton Taylor. Feb 28th, 2008) 

We have been hearing about the “Final offensive” of the Taliban for the past six years. 

The headlines in the UK and the US scream “Afghanistan mission close to failing – USInjection of troops and aid has not brought stability says intelligence chief”

One of the best analysts on Pakistan, with deep insight into the Pakistani defence establishment as well as the Afghan corridors of power, Mr. Syed Saleem Shahzad  is saying that for the Spring offensive, the Taliban again have Kabul in their sights.

Many analysts believe that the US army bogged down in Iraq, Pakistan embroiled in its elections, and the impotent NATO forzen in the North, this spring will be decisive battle if not the final battle for Kabul.

The Road to Kabul by Mr. Salim Shehzad

As politicians scramble to form a coalition government following last week’s parliamentary elections, there has been a surge in violence in the Swat Valley and in other parts of North-West Frontier Province, and on Monday a senior army officer was assassinated. The indications are that whoever takes power in Islamabad – be it the Pakistan People’s Party or the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif or a combination of both – the real battle will be in Afghanistan between the Taliban and al-Qaeda-led militants and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) and its allies. Army surgeon general Lieutenant General Muhammad Mushtaq Baig and seven other people were killed in a suicide attack in Rawalpindi.

It was the most high-profile killing since the death of Benazir Bhutto. Apart from the Swat Valley, there has been an increase in violence, including bomb blasts, in the North Waziristan and Bajaur and Manshera, after a brief lull in the runup to the elections. More than a dozen incidents have been reported. The trigger for this appears to have been planned joint Pakistan-NATO operations in the region against the Taliban and al-Qaeda.

The militants aim to open up several fronts in Pakistan to dissuade the military from cooperating with NATO. This situation is an embarrassment to the security apparatus as it was believed that following recent countrywide operations that uncovered militant cells in Karachi, Rawalpindi, Mianwali, Bannu and Dera Ismail Khan that the problem was being contained.

“ the Taliban’s three-pronged plan for their spring offensive comprises cutting off NATO’s supply lines running from Pakistan to Afghanistan, recruiting fresh volunteers and, most importantly, the creation of a strategic corridor running from Pakistan all the way to the capital Kabul. Since being ousted in 2001 and waging annual spring offensives, this is the first time the Taliban have come up with the idea of creating such a corridor.

The long road to Kabul As things stand, the Taliban have established pockets of resistance all around Kabul, in addition to more settled pockets across the country. The Taliban roam around freely in the eastern province of Wardak, just 30 kilometres from Kabul. But now the Taliban want to connect the dots, as it were, to ensure a quick and steady supply of arms and men to reinforce the pockets sufficiently for attacks on the capital. It is envisaged that the corridor initially starts in Mohmand Agency and Bajaur Agency in Pakistan and then passes through Kunar and Nooristan provinces all the way to the Taghab Valley in Kapisa province in the northeast about 100 kilometres from the capital.

In 2006, the Taliban seized the strategic Taghab Valley – as well as the Musayab Valley to the south of Kabul – with the goal of an assault on the capital, but because of limited supply lines they were only able to maintain their positions for a few months. This year, the Taliban aim to retake these positions, while having in place secure supply lines starting in the Pakistani tribal areas to maintain a steady stream of men and resources. Over the past year, the Taliban have increased the number of their fighters in Mohmand Agency to 18,000 and to between 20,000 to 25,000 in Bajaur Agency.

Taliban quarters believe this will provide sufficient strength to ensure operation, which is due to run from April to September. The counter-strategy This steady gathering of forces in the two agencies did not go unnoticed by NATO. So, with Pakistani assistance, NATO will increase military operations aimed at nipping the corridor idea in the bud. American special ground troops have escalated their activities in Kunar and Nooristan provinces and a US base in Kunar, just three kilometres from Bajaur Agency, is now fully operational. Once the operations are in full swing, Pakistan will provide assistance through its air base in Peshawar for attacks on militant bases in the agencies.

“The operation has to start in the month of March as the Taliban have to launch their operation in April,” a Pakistani security official told Asia Times Online. However, Pakistan’s plans could still be derailed. A powerful lawyers’ movement is scheduled to launch protests on March 9 to pressure the new government into ousting President Pervez Musharraf. This would certainly delay any decision on Pakistan taking on the militants in a big way. Al-Qaeda, meanwhile, will be doing its best to fuel these flames to force Pakistan to back off and leave the way clear for the Taliban’s corridor.