http://rupeenews.com/2008/02/pakistani-gwador-to-china-links-threatened-by-indian-chahbahar-links-to-kabul-via-iran/Indian Chahbahar vs Pakistani Gwador to China & C. AsiaRupee News

Indian Chahbahar vs Pakistani Gwador to China & C. Asia

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IINDIA-IRAN ROAD LINK TO CENTRAL ASIA VIA KABUL

VS.

PAKISTAN-CHINA ROAD/RAIL/CYBER/PIPE LINKS to CHINA & CENTRAL ASIA

by Moin Ansari

NEW YORK:Feb. 8th, 2008-Rupee News: The sailors of yesteryear, and the nations they represented, Amerigo Vespucci, Christopher Columbus and Vasco De Gama stepped over each other seeking a the shortest route to the South Asian Subcontinent. Today many of the same nations plus the ancient powers who are now independent, are seeking the shortest route to Central Asia. Stopping the supply chain that rains terror on Pakistan

Two visions for Central Asia are emerging. One vision was to link Gwador (various spellings Gwadar, Gwader, and Gwador) to China and Central Asia. The counter-move is the Indian threat first build a new port in Iran and then to connect this new Iranian port city of Chahbahar to the Kabul and beyond. India has built parts of a highway from Chabahar (in Iran) through Afghanistan to Tajikistan (Chabahar-Kabul-Kunduz-Badakhshan) which will enable India to have a transport corridor to the otherwise inaccessible Central Asian region.The suitability of Iranian Chabahar port for acting as a trade conduit for Central Asia is doubtful at best. In the best case scenario, from Iranian point of view, both Gwadar and Chabahar can equally benefit from Central Asian business. Chabahar port is well-suited for linking to the southern parts of Afghanistan and a few Central Asian states. Given the current protracted instability in Afghanistan, Chabahar is not really a serious contender for Central Asian trade – at least, not for the foreseeable future – because the proposed trade route passes through the whole of Afghanistan from bottom to all the way up to its north.

The trade route from Gwadar, on the other hand, to Central Asia and possibly to Russia will pass through only a narrow strip, i.e. Wakhan, in north-eastern Afghanistan. But the real value of Gwadar port lies in its use for Chinese trade with Gulf States, Middle Eastern and European countries. The bulk of the cargo handled by Gwadar port is expected to either originate from or destined to China. And the route for that trade is already nearing to be fully functional. For the trade route to Central Asian states and Russia, the only segment to be built anew is Wakhan part. The construction of that segment, ensuring the safety of trucks in that area, and negotiating the terms and conditions with Afghanistan are more of a need and responsibility of Central Asian states and Russia – and not a headache of Pakistan. Indian participation in the construction of Chabahar and a road linking it to Afghanistan is more of a gimmick than a real strategic investment. The only feasible and shortest trade route for Indian trade with Central Asian countries is the land route that passes through Pakistan.

The Indian participation in the construction of Chabahar should bring more of consolation and satisfaction to Pakistanis than any real benefit for Indians. Chabahar route is really infeasible for Indian trade due to its length, increased taxation and duties, and see/land switch-overs. Due to its high transportation cost and increased time to market, this route will act more as a continuous liability for the Indian traders. The net effect will be the less competitive Indian goods. Indian goods are already infamous for the poor quality. With high transportation costs, double custom duties, and greater delays will not let the Indian trade with Central Asia to really take off. And that is a good news for Gwadar lovers. Rupee News contributor Pakbird

The road that was supposed to have heralded a new area of influence in Afghanistan is a sad state of disrepair and is unusable. The insurgent forces have targeted the roads and the supply chains. This is how they won the war against the USSR. They are using the same tactics against the NATO-ISAF occupation. The road a symbol of US-Bharati and Bharati-Afghan cooperation is already a skeleton of what was planned. Neither ISAF nor NATO dare use the road. Iran is least interested in any venture with Bharat afer Delhi stabbed it in the back by throwing it to the wolves of the IAEA and then firing an Iran specific satellite for Israel. Delhi Tehran relations are on ice and have been in cold storage for a few years.Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Moin Ansari | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed: | RUPEE NEWS | February 8th, 2008 | Moin Ansari | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |The Bharati plan to link Chahbahar to Kabul has failed due to a few reasons.

1) The “Taliban” (and 38 other anti-occupation forces) now control about 70% of Afghanistan.

2) ISAF and NATO does not control the famous Ring Road around Afghanistan) The Bharati built Zergham-Dilaram road has fallen into huge pothole of Afghan politics.

It cannot be used and many of the bridges have already been blown up

4) Delhi and Teheran have fallen apart and there is no incentive in Iran to give Bharat access to Kabul r beyond.5) Instead Iran is working with Islamabad on building the Iran-Pakistan pipeline.Was Samuel Huntington right?

ANCIENT TRADE ROUTES CREATING TENSIONS TODAYThe 5000 year old ancient trade routes between Pakistan and China are being revived with modern freeways that were constructed 20 years ago. 5000 years ago the Harrappan Pakistanis were trading with the Chinese.Pakistan is linked to Afghanistan via the Khyber pass. This is Afghanistan’s only access to the ocean. New roads are being constructed to build alternate routes to Kabul via Iran. Because the US does not work with Iran directly, India has been chosen as a proxy to build the road and connect it to the new Iranian port of Chahbahar.

PAKISTAN, CHINA ROAD AND RAIL LINKS:-The supply routes through Pakistan are a matter of much discussion in Pakistan. Allowing the US access through the Khyber is very unpopular and increasingly dangerous. The Khyber Pass is very hard to go through. It is a long winding valley with no exits. A few strategically placed enemy gunmen can choke the pass. Pakistan to US: No pay-No play: Tough lessons on geography!The Karokaram highway from Pakistan to ChinaThis is an all weather road that connect the Northern Areas of Pakistan to the Chinese Ughuristan. A Loan Agreement for Karakoram Highway Upgradation Project between the government of Pakistan and Export/Import Bank of China was signed here Friday. The qualitative upgrade of the Pakistan-China Road Linkage will further facilitate tourism and trade between the two friendly countries. Under the agreement the People’s Republic of China will provide credit of US$327 million. The KKH upgradation project is being executed jointly by China Road and Bridge Corporation (CRBC) and the Pakistan’s National Highway Authority (NHA). The Agreement was signed by the Ambassador of Pakistan to China H.E. Salman Bashir and Xin Bin, Deputy General Manager Commercial Loan Project. (PPI) Gwador to Karokaram, Tue, Jan. 22, 08

CHINESE STRING OF PEARLS PORTS STRATEGY: The Gwader link to China is part of the Chinese “String of Pearl” strategy that encircles India with many naval bases from Pakistan to Thailand.The Chinese have surrounded “India” with a string of pearls strategy with bases in all of India’s neighbors–in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Mayanmar (several ports), and the Malacca straits. India is powerless to do anything about being surrounded except for sounding off, turning on an occasional alarm bell and trying to impress Washington by raising a red flag about the grave threat from Mao’s People Liberation Army. India paranoid cries of wolf elicit a yawn and ridicule among the think tanks. The port in Gwader is already functional and is being linked via high speed train, road and fiberoptics to Beijing. The Sri Lankan port of Hambantota is raising hackles in New Delhi and with the defeat of the Tamils on the horizon, Lanka will remain a hostile state for India.

Chinese string of pearls ports strategy map

India’s ocean is Chinese lake: “String of pearls” threaten India. CHENNAI: The Gwadar port being built by Pakistan with Chinese assistance in its Baluchistan coast has “serious strategic implications for India“, Naval Chief, Admiral Sureesh Mehta has said. “Being only 180 nautical miles from the exit of the Straits of Hormuz, Gwadar, being built in Baluchistan coast, would enable Pakistan take control over the world energy jugular and interdiction of Indian tankers,” he said delivering T S Narayanaswamy Memorial lecture in Chennai on Monday night. The challenge for India was to balance relations with China in such a manner that competition for strategic significance of space in the Indian Ocean leads to cooperation rather than conflict, he said

“The pressure for countries to cooperate in the maritime military domain to ensure smooth flow of energy and commerce on the high seas will grow even further,” he said speaking on “Oceanic Influence on India’s Development in the next Decade.” Talking about “Chinese designs on the Indian Ocean,” Mehta said China had a strategy called `String of Pearls,’ as per which it seeks to set up bases and outposts across the globe, strategically located along its energy lines, to monitor and safeguard energy flows.Mothership” Somalis hijack Indian ship: Where is INS Tabor?

“Each pearl in the string is a link in a chain of the Chinese maritime presence,” he said. “Among other locations, the string moves Northwards up to Gwadar deep sea port on Pakistan’s Makran coast. A highway is under construction joining Gwadar with Karachi and there are plans to connect the port with the Karakoram Highway, thus providing China a gateway to Arabian Sea,” he said adding that this could pose a problem for India.Indians think that Gwader is of no value to Pakistan becasue Pakistan already has two commercial ports of Karachi and Port Qasim. The Indian Naval Chief thinks that the Gwadar port is part of a Chinese strategy.

“Other “pearls” that China has been developing are naval facilities in Bangladesh, where it is developing a container-port facility at Chittagong; in Myanmar, where it is building radar, refit and refuel facilities at bases in Sittwe, Coco, Hianggyi, Khaukphyu, Mergui and Zadetkyi Kyun; and in Thailand and Cambodia.”Pak’s new port has strategic implications for India: Navy chief, 22 Jan 08

The pearls in the Chinese strategy.

Chittagong Bangladesh

Sittwe Burma

Coco, Burma Hianggyi

Khaukphyu, Burma

Mergui Burma

Zadetkyi Burma

Kyun; and in Thailand and Cambodia

INDIA’S  CHAHBAHAR PORT IN IRAN AND  THE RAIL AND ROAD LINKS TO AFGHANISTAN ARE NOW ON ICE

More than 70% of the US supplies go through Pakistan. US bluff: Other arduous US Supply Chain routes to Afghanistan not feasible.

Some in America do believe that alternative supply routes can be found. The recent agreement reached by Germany with Russia to use its railway and road system to transport military as well as non-lethal equipment for its forces in Afghanistan is the first step towards a similar agreement being reached with other NATO countries, including the United States. Such alternative routes will not, however, address the problem faced in South and East Afghanistan, for which Pakistan is the only possible route until US-Iran relations improve to the point that Iran agrees to facilitate such transit.Some also believe that direct military action against sanctuaries and Taliban supply points in Pakistan is a viable option a la the bombing of the Ho Chi Minh trail in Cambodia and Laos to stem the flow of supplies and recruits from North to South Vietnam. Many, however, recognise that such actions would add to the growth of extremism in Pakistan, fuel anti-American sentiment and create an untenable situation. Daily Times. Obama’s Afghanistan strategy -Najmuddin A Shaikh

Indian counter moves to Gawador include the base in Tajikistan and port in Chahbahar Iran.  Conventional wisdom has it that  alternate route of supplies to Afghanistan are not feasible. However the situation is so critical that the US has been forced to look to the long and arduous route to provide essential water, food, arms and supplies to Kabul and beyond. US supplies to Afghanistan in jeopardy

Fighting terror without Pakistan by Lisa Curtis: “The U.S. doesn’t really have the option of abandoning Pakistan. We rely on Pakistani air, land and sea space to.”Maps showing the location of ChabaharMap showing the Iranian road links to Afghanistan. India built the Zarang Delaram Road which hooks up Iran to the Ring Road. India had hoped that his road would allow India to find an alternate route to Kabuil via the port it is building at Chahbahar. Now the bridges on this link and Afghanistan’s main artery lies in ruins without any traffic. The risk on traveling on this road is very high.Death stalks the highway to hell by Salih Muhammad Salih, Abubakar Siddique Following its reconstruction in 2003, the Kabul to Kandahar highway was seen as a logistical lifeline that would bring hope and promise for Afghanistan’s future. But today the nearly 500-kilometer route, known as Highway One, might arguably symbolize the dangers ahead as the country continues its efforts to defeat the Taliban and other “enemies of Afghanistan”, to borrow the government’s phrase for insurgents and other brigands undermining central authority. Afghans who use the road warn that it has become exceedingly treacherous, with Taliban and other armed gangs frequently kidnapping and killing travelers between the capital and the southern city of Kandahar. Death stalks the highway to hell By Salih Muhammad Salih, Abubakar Siddique (Asia Times)

Zarang Delaram Road links the Afghan "

Maps showing the relationship of the Indian base in Tajikistan and the trail of terror to Kabul that ends up in Pakistan“Chabahar FTZ: Strategically linked to Sarakhs and located in southwestern Iran off of the Oman Sea, Chabahar is the closest Iranian port to the Indian Ocean, and provides direct access to Turkmenistan and other Central Asian nations, via the Bafq - Bandar Abbas – Mashad - Sarakhs - Tajan rail lines thus effectively linking the Oman Sea to Sarakhs. The FTZ has two jetties with a capacity 2,000,000 tons per year, and has some 150,000 tons of storage facilities. The cornerstone of Chabahar’s industrial development is a large scale oil refinery with a capacity of some 225,000 barrels per day. major attractions of Chabahar has been the incentive package that it offers to investors including: http://rupeenews.com/ia1.Many incentives have been further buoyed by facilities such as social and cultural centers such as theaters, technical and vocational centers and the like, highlighted by the forthcoming establishment of an international university in the zone. In light of the above, over the past four years the Iranian private sector has invested over 500 billion Rials into the FTZ and over 1,600 investment permits have been registered , 65% of which pertained to the manufacturing sector.“To counter the Gwadar port that is also called the Chinese Gibraltar by Washington, India has built Chabahar port in Sistan-Balochistan province of Iran – just adjacent to Gwadar. India is also helping Iran in building a 200km road that will connect Chabahar with Afghanistan. It will provide access via land to the port for their imports and exports to and from Central Asia. Presently, India is in urgent need of a shorter transit route to quickly ship its trade goods to Afghanistan and Central Asia.”“China moved into India’s backyard when it signed an agreement with Sri Lanka in March 2007 to develop Hambantota Development Zone, which includes a container port, a bunkering system, an oil refinery, an airport and other facilities. It is expected to cost about US$1 billion and the Chinese are said to be financing more than 85% of the project. The entire project is scheduled to be completed in the next 15 years. Counter Current Abus Sattat Ghazalli.

Zarang Delaram Road links the Afghan "

The suitability of Iranian Chabahar port for acting as a trade conduit for Central Asia is doubtful at best. In the best case scenario, from Iranian point of view, both Gwadar and Chabahar can equally benefit from Central Asian business. Chabahar port is well-suited for linking to the southern parts of Afghanistan and a few Central Asian states. Given the current protracted instability in Afghanistan, Chabahar is not really a serious contender for Central Asian trade – at least, not for the foreseeable future – because the proposed trade route passes through the whole of Afghanistan from bottom to all the way up to its north. The trade route from Gwadar, on the other hand, to Central Asia and possibly to Russia will pass through only a narrow strip, i.e. Wakhan, in north-eastern Afghanistan. But the real value of Gwadar port lies in its use for Chinese trade with Gulf States, Middle Eastern and European countries. The bulk of the cargo handled by Gwadar port is expected to either originate from or destined to China. And the route for that trade is already nearing to be fully functional. For the trade route to Central Asian states and Russia, the only segment to be built anew is Wakhan part.

The construction of that segment, ensuring the safety of trucks in that area, and negotiating the terms and conditions with Afghanistan are more of a need and responsibility of Central Asian states and Russia – and not a headache of Pakistan. Indian participation in the construction of Chabahar and a road linking it to Afghanistan is more of a gimmick than a real strategic investment. The only feasible and shortest trade route for Indian trade with Central Asian countries is the land route that passes through Pakistan. The Indian participation in the construction of Chabahar should bring more of consolation and satisfaction to Pakistanis than any real benefit for Indians. Chabahar route is really infeasible for Indian trade due to its length, increased taxation and duties, and see/land switch-overs. Due to its high transportation cost and increased time to market, this route will act more as a continuous liability for the Indian traders. The net effect will be the less competitive Indian goods. Indian goods are already infamous for the poor quality. With high transportation costs, double custom duties, and greater delays will not let the Indian trade with Central Asia to really take off. And that is a good news for Gwadar lovers. Rupee News contributor Pakbird

CURRENT SITUATION: Alternate routes to Kabul. UK Reality check on the war in Afghanistan. We first brought up this issue several years ago. According to the military and defense experts we talked to, the transportation of arms and food through Georgia is not feasible and is part of the US Army’s psy ops strategy. This sort of press release is an attempt to put pressure on Pakistan. The facts on the ground dictate that the US supply routes have to go through Pakistan. US attacks on Pakistan since 2004 fueled Afghan insurgency

Several new factors have emerged.

1) A lot of water has flown down the Indus since President Khatami went to India amid great fanfare and inked the plans to allow Indian access to Afghanistan via Iran.

2) The budding romance between India and the USA has impacted traditional  Indo-Russian and Indo-Iranian relations.

3) India voted to move the Iranian case to the UNO. Indian has been a half-hearted partner in the Iranian pipeline to Pakistan.

4) The eviction notice to India from Tajikistan puts a great dent in the Indian plans to take over Central Asia. The Indian departure from Dushanbe reflects growing tensions with Russia.

5) Attempts to destabilize Pakistan are underway and may have been thwarted.

6) A resurgent Taliban in Afghanistan are a huge impediment to any links that India may develop to gain access to Central Asia

7) Iran is angry with Bharat over her shooting an Israeli spay satellite into space which could monitor Iranian nuclear activity. It remains to be seen, if this is temporary spat.

8) The Ring Road is now in total disarray, with almost all bridges blown up and travel on it more riskier than one would imagine.

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | ??????? ????? | ???? | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ??????? | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | ???????? ????? | Moin Ansari | ???? ??????? | DefensebriefsIntellibriefs Translate to: RSS feed: | RUPEE NEWS | February 8th, 2008 | Moin Ansari | ???? ??????? | ????? ????? |

http://rupeenews.com/d8W

ARTICLES ABOUT PAKISTAN, US FATIMA AND BILAWAL BHUTTO

• The CIA Connection…….The Benazir Bhutto Assassination was pre planned, the Zia model with a twist.
• The continued CIA involvement in Pakistan. The Great Game continues. When the Elephants dance the grass gets stamped upon…Pakistanis suffer. The purpose of this assignation is to destabilize Pakistan and find a reason to secure the Nukes
• Perpetual Mimetic warfare
• Here we go again! Another Indian prophecy of doom. The first one was in 1947
• Fatima Bhutto the niece writes a farewell letter to Aunt Benazir Bhutto
• Fatima Bhutto hints at political involvement. Sign up sheet for a Draft Fatima movement. Leave comments and contact info. Name, email and contact info
• Fatima Bhutto and Bilawal Bhutto…a couple made in heaven
• Two women. Benazirs murder and Princess Dianas Pakistan connection. Was the Quran the reason for her death?
• The speech that Fahim, Zardari, and Bilawal Bhutto should have made. The message that the PPP should have sent. The patriotism that the People Party could have spread
• Criticism of Benazir Bhutto’s 5E Campaign program
• Criticism of Benazir Bhutto. Pre-Assassination
• Who killed Liaqat Ali Khan?
• On deconstructing the wrong paradigm of the USA media
• Rebutting Cohen
• Pakistanis are immune to another prophecy of doom
• Pakistanis want to hear “Thank You” from the ingrate Americans. Nothing is good enough!
• Pakistanis to USA: We want “Friends Not Masters”
• Say Thank You
• Pakistan US Relations should be normal not transactional
• Response to Congressman Hoyer on Pakistan”
• On inadequate US Aid to Pakistan
• Where is Osama Bin Laden
• Where are the Pakistani nukes?
• Where is Leadership of the PPP? Why is it behaving like Nero. Stop the arson and the carnage. Ask for a national Day of prayer and reconciliation
• Open Letter to Mr. 10% Asif Zardari. Show some leadership
• Open Letter to Mr. Bilawal Bhutto
• The CIA connection—Benazir Bhutto assassination was pre-planned, the Zia model with a twist
• Benzir Bhuttos revenge from the grave: Annointing a despised and corrupt politician Mr. 10% as her successor
• Open letter to Mr. Zardari
• The 4th Bhutto assassination is a message to the USA. Hands Off Pakistan
• Pakistani infrastructure needs> Build Pakistan up as a bulwark against American enemies”
• About the inane discussion of taking out Pakistan’s Nuclear weapons.”
• Taking out Pakistani Nuclear weapons.”
• This was an angry reaction to Benazir Bhutto’s unpatriotic comments. According to tradition, we should not say bad things about a dead person. May God Bless her soul.”
• Every time something bad happens, anti-Pakistan elements come out of the woodwork. Here is a response to the talking heads.”
• the Democrats don’t get it.”
• Discussion of taking out Pakistani nukes: The White House should immediately repudiate this aggression and arrest Anti-Americansim”
• Discussion of taking out Pakistani nukes: The White House should immediately repudiate this aggression and arrest Anti-Americansim”
• Wish List from Pakistan to Santa America”
• The Worst Islamphobes
• Where are the Pakistani nukes?
• On Liaqat Ali Khan: Who killed him?
• On deconstructing the wrong paradigm. Why the US Think Tank industry is wrong!
• Rebutting Cohen. He is an Indian agent!
• Another prophecy of doom for Pakistan. Blah Blah Blah!
• Pakistanis want to hear “Thank You” for the US
• Pakistanis to USA: We want “Friends Not Masters”
• America: Say Thank You”
• Pakistan US Relations should be normal not transactional”
• Response to Congressman Hoyer on Pakistan”
• On inadequate US Aid to Pakistan”
• ….Pakistanis are not stupid and have their nukes hidden”
• The Democrats don’t get it
• Where in the world is Osama Bin Laden
• The speech that Bilawal Bhutto should have given. The words that Zardari should have shouted. The thoughts that Fahim should have communicated
• The CIA Connection…….The Benzair Bhutto Assassination was pre planned, the Zia model with a twist.
• The continued CIA involvement in Pakistan. The Great Game continues. When the Elephants dance the grass gets stamped upon…Pakistanis suffer. The purpose of this assignation is to destabilize Pakistan and find a reason to secure the Nukes
• Criticism of Benazir Bhutto’s 5E Campaign program
• Criticism of Benazir Bhutto. Pre-Assassination
• Who killed Liaqat Ali Khan?
• On deconstructing the wrong paradigm of the USA media
  Rebutting Cohen
  Pakistanis are immune to another prophecy of doom
  Pakistanis want to hear “Thank You” from the ingrate Americans. Nothing is good enough!
  Pakistanis to USA: We want “Friends Not Masters”
  Say Thank You
  Pakistan US Relations should be normal not transactional
  Response to Congressman Hoyer on Pakistan”
  On inadequate US Aid to Pakistan
  Where is Osama Bin Laden
  Where are the Pakistani nukes?
• Where is Leadership of the PPP? Why is it behaving like Nero. Stop the arson and the carnage. Ask for a national Day of prayer and reconciliation
• Open Letter to Mr. 10% Asif Zardari. Show some leadership
• Open Letter to Mr. Bilawal Bhutto
• The CIA connection—Benazir Bhutto assassination was pre-planned, the Zia model with a twist
• Benzir Bhuttos revenge from the grave: Annointing a despised and corrupt politician Mr. 10% as her successor
• Open letter to Mr. Zardari
• The 4th Bhutto assassination is a message to the USA. Hands Off Pakistan
• Here we go again! Another Indian prophecy of doom. The first one was in 1947

We would like to refer our readers to the an article on “Toppling the US military” that is worth its weight in gold. Search for it on this site. See: “Kissinger threatened Zulifiqar Ali Bhutto”

Indian Chahbahar vs Pakistani Gwador to China & C. Asia

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