RUPEE NEWS: Recording History, Narrating Archives, Strategic Intellibrief Analysis: Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | новости рупии | 卢比新闻 | Rupi Nyheter | ルピーニュース | اخبار روپیہ

Noticias de Rupia | Nouvelles de Roupie | Rupiennachrichten | новости рупии | 卢比新闻 | Roepienieuws | Rupi Nyheter | ルピーニュース | Notizie di Rupia | PAKISTAN LEDGER | پاکستاني کھاتا | RUPEE NEWS | February 3rd, 2008 | Moin Ansari | معین آنصآرّی | اخبار روپیہ |

There is a lot of misinformation about the Pakistani Nuclear weapons. Pakistan has more than 250 nukes. Only about 48 are registered and acknowledged. The others are all hidden. The West has been unable to prevent Pakistan from acquiring the weapons and and has been unable to force Pakistan to reverse its nuclear program despite humongous efforts and despite decade long sanctions.

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Why is West after Pakistan’s nukes? by M. Aftab

The answers, apprehensions or motives can be many. But let us explore them. Is it after Pakistani nukes because Pakistan is a Muslim country?

Is it because it can be a danger to America’s great protégé — Israel, which is why the West dubs it as an “Islamic bomb”, although the nukes of other countries do not carry a religious tag or denomination?

Is it because a nuclear-armed Pakistan can see in the eye of the West? Is it because Pakistanis, or their government, are too timid, or naive, or incompetent to swallow all kinds of Western accusations? Is it because, Islamabad rulers, even though pro-US, will let terrorists steal or snatch Pakistani nukes, and pout their own jobs at stake? Is it because Pakistanis are too pliable, and tolerate their arm-twisting without complaining?Why is the US — the biggest nuke maker, nuke owner and killers of thousands of innocent Japanese by nuclear bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, and its Western allies, treating three countries — Pakistan, India and Israel, differently?

Why so when they have exactly the same status by not being signatories to the Non Proliferation Treaty (NPT)? I do not wish to stretch the argument too far, but isn’t it a fact that Israel is surrounded by millions of Muslim “enemies”, ranging from Palestinian-Arab Christians and Muslims in Syria, Lebanon and the rest, who have been at war with Tel Aviv since it was created six decades ago. Doesn’t it owe its birth, in the heart of the Arab world, to Anglo-European-US conspiracy, which also had aimed at dispossessing Arabs and Palestinians of their own homeland and Muslim holy places?If under the American apprehensions and scenarios, anti-Israel Palestinians and Arabs, from whichever country or location, can attack Tel Aviv’s nuclear arsenals and steal or forcibly take away the Jewish bomb, who will stop them from exploding it in Israel?

Is it a fact that, besides Pakistan, wherever there is an “Islamic bomb”, or even a false hint of it or suspicion of it popping up, the US and the West start a hue and cry? Take the alleged “Iranian bomb”. Isn’t it Israel alone that is allegedly “threatened” by Iran’s alleged bomb building? That is why Washington and its Western allies and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) all are hell-bent to stop it. Punish Iran and impose more and more sanctions.Washington is also deploying all its Muslim leaders and other “assets” to stop Iran from going nuclear that will “threaten” Israel, highly suspicious actions against a Muslim country.

Who is next after Iran? Surely, it is Pakistan. On the other hand, why does Washington have such benign relations with India, tolerating its nukes and its vastly bigger and dangerous nuclear programme that started in 1974, forcing Pakistan to start a nuclear plan of its own or perish? Isn’t Washington going to provide India with all sorts of materials and equipment? Isn’t it helping India gain access to 45-member Nuclear Suppliers’ Group for the same purpose? Aren’t many insurgencies going on in various parts of India, which may lead to Indian terrorists stealing or snatching India’s nukes and use them against New Delhi or whosoever? Take the 60-year long Kashmiri freedom fight or insurgency in the Indian-occupied territory. Take Tripura, Assam, Tamil Nadu, and numerous other parts of India, places swarming with anti-New Delhi insurgencies.

The US and Western policies let their friends — Israel and India — get away with nuclear murder but continuously whip Pakistan because it is pliable and yet unreliable Muslim state. Where does Washington’s labeling of Pakistan as the “most allied of all allies” stand in spite of tons of our rulers’ tabedari? Since all these arguments are going to fall on deaf Western ears, one must look into what Pakistan already has on the ground and its repeated assurances of safety of its nukes to the US and the West. What I saw and heard just now was quite formidable. The nuclear programme, its security, safety and safeguards were laid bare at last Saturday’s briefing arranged for the foreign press at the headquarters of the Strategic Planning Division (SPD).

Lt. General (retd) Khalid Kidwai, head of the SPD that looks after Pakistani nukes, informed the press that some 10,000 soldiers, commanded by a two-star general, are protecting the nuclear facilities and assets, forming a well-defined and institutionalised command and control structure since February 2000. The command and control organisation is a multi-layered system, structurally grouped in three tiers: National Command Authority (NCA) at the top, assisted by Strategic Plans Division, and Strategic Forces Commands. The NCA is headed by the president, with the prime minister as its vice chairman, assisted by two committees — Employment Control Committee (ECC) and Development Control Committee (DCC). ECC includes ministers of foreign affairs, defence, interior and finance, Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC), and Chiefs of Staff of Army, Navy and Air Force.

The DCC includes CJCSC, and chiefs of Staff Army, Navy and Air Force.

SPD’s task is to develop and manage Pakistan’s nuclear programme in all dimensions: operational, planning, weapons development, arms control and disarmament affairs. Specifically, SPD comprehensively handles formulation of the country’s nuclear policy, nuclear strategy and nuclear doctrine. It formulates short and long term force development strategy for the army, navy and air force within the ambit of national power potential, nuclear doctrine and arms control regimes. It undertakes measures for the safety, security of strategic assets in the short and long term.

The strategic forces retain a strictly military chain of command. “These are sternly controlled professional military chains of command and hierarchy, where adequate and duplicate checks are in place to ensure that security is of the highest quality and unauthorized use, theft, and pilferage will never occur.” There is a strict system of Sensitive Material (Fissile Material) control and accounting as provided in international practices. The tightest security is provided during transportation of sensitive materials. Specialist vehicles and containers with theft and tamper proofing are provided for such purposes.

Two-man rule, codes and Permissive Actions Links (PALs) have been fully developed. The programme has “well developed physical safety mechanisms and firewalls in the weapons and in the chain of command that ensures that unauthorised use will never take place, especially by a single individual, but that the weapon will be ready when required at the shortest notice.” General Kidwai said, “It is important to understand that South Asia is not a US-USSR model with weapons on hair-trigger alert. It is also worth highlighting that if a country can make complex nuclear weapons and ballistic/cruise missiles, grant it that PALs is a far simpler technology.” He also said that “the concept of physical security on the ground is based on the principles of multiple layers, defence in depth and an ability to detect and defeat both insider and outsider threat.”

Pakistan, unlike most Western countries, does not have a nuclear industry in the private sector. “The capacity for production of all nuclear material, including fissile material, even for civilian applications is with the public sector, specifically the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission and the KRL.”

Strongly rebutting constant Western propaganda, SPD simulates three “extremist take over scenarios”, including democratic elections, breakdown of law and order, and military take-over. Its answers are: A democratic election will not lead to such an eventuality. “This is an impossible proposition. Even the review of the last elections and analysis or current political trends substantiate our claims,” as all Pakistani political parties are “moderate and middle of the road parties”. There is an exaggerated fear of a breakdown of law and order. “None of the recent turmoil was directed against military or nuclear installations. Pakistanis are a non-revolutionary people.”

There are no chances of a “military takeover”. Pakistan has 620,000 regulars plus 302,000 frontier constabulary and rangers. “It is a force with rich Muslim history and traditions, derived from the British Indian Army. Pakistan army has a moderate outlook with a middle class make-up. Our troops are professional, well-trained and educated. They possess vast exposure to the world. The Pakistan army is a cohesive force and operates above provincialism and sectarianism.”

SPD insists that “there is no conceivable scenarios, political or violent, in which Pakistan will fall to the extremists of al Qaeda or Taliban type. The fears are based in a lack of objective understanding of Pakistan’s ground situation and lack of information.” The system Pakistan has evolved “strikes a good balance between physical security, operational readiness, and firewalls that will prevent accidents, unauthorised use or even theft”.

General Kidwai, explaining the “totally home-grown nuke system, its security, safety and protection,” said a dedicated intelligence network assists the troops. Out of 10,000 scientists working on nukes, 2,000 are working in sensitive fields and are subjected to intense scrutiny throughout their lives. At least 1,000 scientists, at different locations, have to join hands to make a nuke ready. In any eventuality, if NCA decides to use a nuclear bomb, and a military aircraft takes off on its mission flight, the NCA, till the last minute, retains its control of the codes to explode the weapon or abort the mission. No ready weapons are kept at any location and no one can steal them because their different parts and components are kept at difference places.

In spite of all this, if sceptics and the US still fear or insist that Pakistani nuclear bombs are not in the safe hands, does it not mean that there is something terribly wrong with their minds and hearts?

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist and former Director General of Associated Press of Pakistan

2nd article

Peace accord in Swat must not be frittered away

Asif Haroon Raja

Pakistan is terming its nuclear weapons and the manufacturing facilities as its strategic assets. The nuclear capability provides it with a credible deterrence to thwart the sinister designs of its adversaries who seek its dismemberment. Former Soviet Union with massive nuclear and conventional military capability fragmented from within without putting to use these mass destruction armaments it had heaped at a colossal cost to keep its principal foe USA at bay. In fact the heavy defence expenditure became instrumental in crippling its economy and leading to its eventual downfall from within. It reinforced the age-old dictum that it is the man behind the gun and not the gun which stands the test of trial. In other words, the real asset of any nation is the fighting men imbued with warrior spirit and ever ready to sacrifice their lives for the sake of safeguarding personal, family or nation’s honour.

Going by this logic, we in Pakistan need to re-assess our thinking in this regard. In my humble view, the Islamists whom we brand as extremists and terrorists, if handled wisely can become the real strategic assets of Pakistan. I know this term make the liberals mad and ridicule all those using this terminology. Like the extremist Islamists who consider the liberals as stooges of the West following anti-Islamic way of life, the liberals too hate the Islamists. The western media has helped them in demonising the Islamists. The ultra liberals believing in worldly comforts and disbelieving in Jihad are no less intolerant and ruthless.

Whether we like it or not, we will have to admit that the Islamists are the best fighting force available in Pakistan. By virtue of rough terrain and inclement weather conditions they live in, frugal way of living, valorous stories of their rich past, their ability to fight and use the gun and to brave extreme hardships, closeness to religion and believing in life hereafter, fearless and preferring to die than to surrender, not leaving their dead or wounded in battle behind under any circumstances, dedicated to the given cause and fighting their foes to the last irrespective of superiority of the enemy in terms of manpower, material and technology. Unlike the liberals, they defend Islamic culture and do not promote western culture. Unlike secular leaders, the leaders of Islamists retain a popular appeal among their followers because of their high moral behaviour and conduct. Unlike the secular leaders, there is little difference in the lifestyle of the Islamists leaders and the led and both suffer hardships equally and the leaders lead by example.

To make an assessment of their fighting potential one has to see that few thousand rag-tag militants sandwiched between US-NATO-Afghan troops and Pakistani forces are fighting the latter for the last seven years. Despite the actionable intelligence provided by USA and the pro-government locals and excessive force used by Pak Army for such a long period, they have gained strength instead of getting weakened. Besides their military prowess and endurance, Talibanisation is gaining ground rapidly. These very elements had led a peaceful life and had been kept under control by the political agents and Frontier Constabulary since 1947, but now even the regular army inducted for the first time in the tribal belt is finding it hard to defeat them. The Islamists fighting the army in FATA and in Swat do not want any material benefits to make their life comfortable. Their sole demand is implementation of Islamic laws so that they are able to live their life in accordance with the Quran and Sunnah. This demand is enshrined in the constitution and not unconstitutional.

The Afghan Taliban had promulgated rule of Sharia in war-torn Afghanistan and had produced good results in a short period despite being one of the most impoverished states of the world. They were harsh against evil doers and not against peaceful and Islam-loving people and had succeeded in removing the vices to a great extent and had initiated pro-poor policies. With Afghan economy in dire straits because of severe sanctions imposed by USA and the West, the Taliban could have resorted to opium trade to boost the economy but poppy cultivation was almost eliminated from Afghanistan. The just system adopted by the Taliban and ban on opium production became some of the principle reasons of their ouster by USA since it could have posed a challenge to the pro-rich capitalism. The people of tribal belt as well as Malakand Division in particular who had lent a helping hand to the Afghans in their fight against foreign invaders had got impressed with Afghan Taliban and wanted to replace coercive and pro-rich legal system with Sharia. Desire for speedy and cheap justice led to Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Sharia-Muhammadi (TNSM) under Maulana Sufi Muhammad. The liberals fear Sharia since they know that their lifestyle which is akin to western way of life will get disturbed.

America is trying to sell the idea that takeover of reins of power by the Islamists will spell disaster since Pakistan is not in a position to protect its nuclear arsenal; hence it will be prudent to place the arsenal in safe custody of USA. Secretary of State Hilary Clinton had suggested joint control of USA and Britain during her election campaign. Pakistan on the other hand maintains that it is quite capable of safeguarding its assets and considering the multi-layered safety precautions undertaken, there is no danger of any theft. It asserts that its nuclear strength helps in deterring its enemies from invading Pakistan and hence it cannot even think of any one else hijacking its nuclear arsenal. It does not consider Pakistani Islamists as aliens but very much part of it enjoying equal rights. If they contest the elections and win through polls it will be their right to govern and also manage the nuclear programme. In case they try to seize power by force, they will certainly be resisted and crushed as is happening in Swat and tribal areas.

Having got the army fixed in the inferno of FATA and destabilised Baluchistan, the Indo-US-Afghan-Israeli nexus based in Kabul cleverly shifted the weight of militancy from Afghanistan into Pakistan. USA then began to paste charges of nuclear proliferation, terrorism and religious extremism. Focus of smear campaign was then diverted towards the Pak Army. Having locked up the army against its own people, they not only kept adding fuel to fire to keep flames of militancy inflamed, they kept up the mantra of do more and never got satisfied. In spite of the fact that the army had put in its best and its contribution had been much more than any other state, they lamented that Pakistan Army had not done what was expected from it. They wanted the army to go all out to eliminate each and every militant through brute force without caring for collateral damages. They insinuated that $10.5 billion US assistance had gone to waste since the army was aligned with the Taliban and was disinterested in fighting them. They went a step further alleging that the army was playing a double game by helping the Taliban to cross into Afghanistan and target Afghan-Nato targets. They simply ignored over 1500 fatalities and thousands of injuries sustained by the army and the trials and tribulations it is going through for the last seven years. It is now being whispered that the army is out of the control of civil government so as to create a wedge between the two.

The next in the firing line was the ISI. It was accused of training and launching Taliban into Afghanistan and that it was involved in the 7 July suicide attack on Indian Embassy in Kabul. Now it has been blamed for creating Lashkar-e-Taiba and masterminding Mumbai terror attacks on 26 November. Likewise, our nuclear programme came under sustained propaganda and all sorts of horror stories were wilfully spread. The West in collaboration with Pakistani liberals raised hue and cry that Pakistan had lost control over FATA and most of Frontier province and Talibanisation is on the verge of engulfing whole of Pakistan. Talibanisation (means Islamisation) was projected as a monster that would ruin Pakistan. The theme revolved around nuclear bombs falling into the hands of terrorists to scare the world that world’s security was at risk. None cared to reflect that Talibanisation could never have gained strength in Pakistan had the secular leaders controlling the destiny of Pakistan for over 60 years presented a better model of governance and legal system.

When USA exerted pressure on Pakistan based on unsubstantiated reports and held Dr. AQ Khan responsible for nuclear proliferation, Musharraf instead of contesting it hastily agreed to the charge sheet and forced AQ Khan to accept his uncommitted sin or else get ready for Guantanamo Bay. He said that he was coerced to make a confessional statement on the TV in 2004. Nuclear issue has again been revived to exert pressure on the new leadership. His recent release from house detention by a high Court raised concerns among the US and western officials and India went to the extent of getting Pakistan declared a terrorist state on this count. Restrictions have once again been imposed on AQ Khan under mounting pressure.

The chief motive behind maligning Pakistan’s nuclear programme, the army and the ISI is to weaken the state and get closer to the nuclear assets. The deadly nexus neither desires end of militancy in the region which justifies their stay in Afghanistan, nor stability of Pakistan until and unless it deprives it of its nuclear capability. It is for this reason that USA has sabotaged all efforts towards peace. Drone attacks in FATA and their serious concern over recent peace accord with the militants in Swat is a case in point. After inflaming Pakistan, the US now wants Pakistanis to say that it is not US war on terror but Pakistan’s war. Even after we saw the real face of India in the wake of Mumbai carnage and the patriotic response of the tribal militants, the Americans still want us to believe in their absurd logic that it is not Indian threat but militant threat which is real danger to security and existence of Pakistan.

The ongoing propaganda warfare against Pakistan’s nuclear assets and army-ISI linkage with the Taliban is similar to the pattern adopted against Iraq. Despite our constant assurances that we have a fool-proof system to safeguard our nuclear assets and that collusion with Taliban is a figment of imagination, the US is unwilling to accept this position. CIA, RAW and Mossad which are pursuing common objective of denuclearising Pakistan have imprinted these misperceptions so deeply into the minds of the US policy-makers that they simply refuse to listen to any other version.

As is well known, we have declared 48 nuclear bombs which are kept separated in six parts at different locations. Detailed information on them has either been voluntarily given or was acquired by USA during the military standoff with India when we had taken some out of closets, assembled them and deployed them in battle locations. This exercise was traced by US satellite to determine hideouts, time taken to assemble and to move them to launching sites. Likewise the de-assembly procedure was also recorded. Reportedly all the 48 nuclear bombs are linked with a tracking device the control of which rests with USA. What worries USA, India and Israel are the undeclared nuclear bombs and their locations! What is needed now is to build few more bombs free of tracking device and have fresh nuclear codes to retain nuclear deterrence. Having played the theme of Pakistan’s nuclear bombs getting stolen by extremists, who knows the theme is modified to read, ‘world security is at risk since the nuclear button is in the hands of an insane president’.

Sensing from the mood and actions of USA, it has now become apparent that having tightened the noose around Pakistan, it is now itching to deliver the hammer. It is eager to cross into Pakistan territory under the garb of eliminating terrorists based in FATA. Israel, India and Afghanistan are constantly urging USA to take the plunge. Mumbai drama was stage-managed by RAW through 2-3 Pakistani non-actors to maximise pressure on Pakistan and gain an opening for surgical strikes from the east. Had this demand been granted, India and Israel were all set to carry out strikes against our nuclear sites under the garb of destroying Jihadi camps.

Pakistan is acceptable to the sole superpower as long as it is ruled by its loved ones who are ever ready to do as told without asking any questions. Nuclear weapon is not the real threat to USA and the West. It is the man behind the gun which actually worries them. Any leader who is highly US centric and liberal and anti-extremist is acceptable to Washington even if he has a nuclear button in his hands. The Americans preferred late Benazir over Nawaz since the latter despite leading a secular party is conservative and has soft corner for religious parties. They do not rule out the possibility of Nawaz striking a working relationship with Baitullah Mehsud or Maulana Fazlullah or Maulana Sufi Muhammad or their types, and thus become a real threat. It is for this reason that Nawaz has been kept out. The Americans are now feeling disturbed and nonplussed as to how come the secular parties they had helped in gaining power have agreed to introduce Nizam-e-Adl in Malakand Division. Concerted efforts are in hand to sabotage the deal. Bomb blasts in Mianwali and Bhakkar, murder of Geo TV journalist Musa Khankhel in Swat and suicide bomb attack on a funeral procession in DIK are part of the sinister plan to demonise the Taliban and change the perceptions of people of Pakistan.

Although India has said that war is no more an option it has still not withdrawn its strike formations from forward areas. Neither its political and military leaders brought any humility in their tone and tenor. Since Mumbai drama had too many loopholes and Pakistan responded amicably, our detractors could not operationalise their sinister plans. The evil plans have been postponed to next winters and not given up. Internal subversion will be further accelerated to spread militancy into Punjab as well. The coastal belt of Pakistan which has been extensively misused by RAW agents in 1980s and 1990s to destabilise Sindh will be again exploited to make Karachi unstable as it had tried to do in December last.

Taking into account twin threat from our eastern and western borders and volatile internal situation, it will be in fitness of things to find a political solution to the foreign-inspired militancy in FATA, Swat and Baluchistan through dialogue and policy of give and take. The army must be pulled out from the troubled spots at the earliest so that it can concentrate on its primary task of defending the frontiers. The tribesmen who proved their patriotism on a number of occasions must be won over and made to defend our western border as they have been doing for the last 60 years. Accord in Swat is a good beginning which must be followed up. Unwarranted concerns expressed by USA, western countries and India must be ignored. President Zardari should give peace a chance and shouldn’t dither signing the accord. If this chance is frittered away under pressure from our detractors, the bloodletting would intensify with harrowing consequences.

The writer is a defence analyst. Email: ah.raja@yahoo.com