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THE SINGH DOCTRINE’S “BEYOND OXUS POLICY: FAILS AGAIN

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Following the follies of Lord Curzon’s vision of Imperial India

By MOIN ANSARI

We wrote this article 5 years ago trying to “Look into the seeds of time to see “which will grow and which will not“. Updated May 10th, 2008 The India Doctrine

It was a tectnonic event. The repercussion of this event are being felt today. Pakistan is now facing the tsunami after the earthquake.

THE GREAT GAME CONTINUES:…..

“[T]he master of India,” “must, under modern conditions, be the greatest power in the Asiatic Continent, and therefore . . . in the world.” Britain’s Lord Curzon,

“To me, I confess, [countries] are pieces on a chessboard upon which is being played out a game for dominion of the world.” Lord Curzon, viceroy of India, speaking about Afghanistan, 1898

CURRENT SITUATION: Ignomious Defeat, Total Annhilation and humiliating Withdrawl.

India’s “Beyond the Oxus” policy has failed.and she is withdrawing back to the Ganges. Recent events of this week shows the counter moves by Russia to India’s moves into Central Asia. The Singh Doctrine is very poignant to today’s issues. It’s latest twist is India’s realignment and its Faustian deals. The Singh Doctrine in many ways is associated with the attempts to create trouble in China, threaten Nepal, monitor Afghanistan, take over Sri Lanka and destabilize Pakistan.

Many saw it coming. The problems faced by Pakistan stem from the Sing doctrine and the events that surround the bases in Central Asia. Our Prologue discusses the current situation in detail.

THE 2001 INVASION: AMERICAN “ON TO THE OXUS” PLAN PRE-DATED 911 AND PRE-DATED SOVIET INVASION OF AFGHANISTAN:

The truth about the “good war” is to be found in compelling evidence that the 2001 invasion, widely supported in the west as a justifiable response to the 11 September attacks, was actually planned two months prior to 9/11 and that the most pressing problem for Washington was not the Taliban’s links with Osama Bin Laden, but the prospect of the Taliban mullahs losing control of Afghanistan to less reliable mujahedin factions, led by warlords who had been funded and armed by the CIA to fight America’s proxy war against the Soviet occupiers in the 1980s. Known as the Northern Alliance, these mujahedin had been largely a creation of Washington, which believed the “jihadi card” could be used to bring down the Soviet Union. The Taliban were a product of this and, during the Clinton years, they were admired for their “discipline”. Or, as the Wall Street Journal put it, “[the Taliban] are the players most capable of achieving peace in Afghanistan at this moment in history”.

The “moment in history” was a secret memorandum of understanding the mullahs had signed with the Clinton administration on the pipeline deal. However, by the late 1990s, the Northern Alliance had encroached further and further on territory controlled by the Taliban, whom, as a result, were deemed in Washington to lack the “stability” required of such an important client. It was the consistency of this client relationship that had been a prerequisite of US support, regardless of the Taliban’s aversion to human rights. (Asked about this, a state department briefer had predicted that “the Taliban will develop like the Saudis did”, with a pro-American economy, no democracy and “lots of sharia law”, which meant the legalised persecution of women. “We can live with that,” he said.)

…By early 2001, convinced it was the presence of Osama Bin Laden that was souring their relationship with Washington, the Taliban tried to get rid of him. Under a deal negotiated by the leaders of Pakistan’s two Islamic parties, Bin Laden was to be held under house arrest in Peshawar. A tribunal of clerics would then hear evidence against him and decide whether to try him or hand him over to the Americans. Whether or not this would have happened, Pakistan’s Pervez Musharraf vetoed the plan. According to the then Pakistani foreign minister, Niaz Naik, a senior US diplomat told him on 21 July 2001 that it had been decided to dispense with the Taliban “under a carpet of bombs”. John Pilger “The Good War is a Bad War”

THE INDIAN MOVES CAME ON THE HEELS OF THE US INVASION: It has been half a decade that political scientists witnessed a watershed event in the history of the Subcontinent. India established it’s first military base outside India a few miles from the capital city Dushambe in Tajikistan. India thought that this military base combined with a paltry $40million Aid package to Dushambe would allow India clout in Central Asia. The SCO has negated the Indian moves.

Is this takeover, combined with the growing Indian-Israeli nexus, a harbinger of things to come in Central Asia and Afghanistan? The Indian “takeover” of Tajikistan by establishing a military base there has long term consequences for Central Asia, the Middle East, Pakistan and China. In 2002 in a look West policy, had Russia abdicated her rights to Central Asia and given them to India?

Will this perceived “imperialism” be defeated? The India “Charge of the Light Brigade” also started with a lot of pomp and ceremony! Is India getting too big for her boots? Does India have the ware withal to take over Russia’s Big Brother role in Central Asia or is this going to be another misadventure for India like the withdrawal from Sri Lanka? This monograph attempts to answer these questions.

ENTRY INTO DUSHAMBE: The entry of the Sultan into Dushambe has been aptly described by Milton in “Paradise Lost”. Here are few lines.

His eye might there command wherever stood
City of old or modern fame, the seat
Of mightiest empire, from the destined walls
Of Cambalu, seat of Cathaian Can,
And Samarkand by Oxus, Temir’s throne,
To Paquin of Sinaean kings, and thence
To Agra and Lahore of Great Mogul
(Milton, Paradise Lost, XI.385-391)His eye might there command wherever stood
City of old or modern fame, the seat
Of mightiest empire, from the destined walls
Of Cambalu, seat of Cathaian Can,
And Samarkand by Oxus, Temir’s throne,
To Paquin of Sinaean kings, and thence
To Agra and Lahore of Great Mogul (Milton, Paradise Lost, XI.385-391)

THE SINGH DOCTRINE ENDED LIKE THE MONROE DOCTRINE: The Singh Doctrine is nothing new, it is the application of the American Monroe Doctrine to Asia. The Doctrine defines spheres of influence for powers with “security zones”. To understand the Singh Doctrine, and to confirm that history repeats itself, we need to leaf through the pages of history for lessons learned Lord Curzon has been described as British missionary with a vision.

After eliminating the “Indian Mutiny”, the British got serious in India. The sloppy command of the East India Company was replaced by the British Army that brought the situation in control Springboarding from the conquest of India, he tried to establish the seeds of a global British Empire that would face the Europeans rivals, the Russians and the Chinese, the pre-eminent powers of the time. Lord Curzon presided over the “High noon of the Empire” and wanted to take it to new heights.

INDIA’S ATTEMPT TO EMULATE CURZON:

After “India” Drunk with victory, Cruzon wanted to rule the world.

“Lord Curzon celebrated India’s importance in The Place of India in the Empire (1909): The central position of India, its magnificent resources, its teeming multitude of men, its great trading harbors, its reserve of military strength, supplying an army always in a high state of efficiency and capable of being hurled at a moment’s notice upon any point either of Asia or Africa–all these are assets of precious value. On the West, India must exercise a predominant influence over the destinies of Persia and Afghanistan; on the north, it can veto any rival in Tibet; on the north-east . . . it can exert great pressure upon China, and it is one of the guardians of the autonomous existence of Siam. The New Great Game; Why the Bush administration has embraced India.Twining, Daniel

Curzon argued that the defense of the Empire entailed protection of the entire region between Kabul and the Amu Darya (Oxus river) to the North, Colombo to the South, the Makran coast (now in Pakistan) to the West and Mandalay in Burma to the East. Lord Curzon seemd to think that that the Britain’s future lay in capturing and holding Central Asia.

“Turkestan, Afghanistan, Transcaspia, Persia – to many these words breathe only a sense of utter remoteness or a memory of strange vicissitudes and of moribund romance. To me, I confess, they are the pieces a chessboard upon which is being played out a game for the domination of the world.

1849 The British seize the Punjab, detaching Kashmir as a separate state with a ruler friendly to them 1898 Russia gains the warm water naval base of Port Arthur from the Chinese. Lord Curzon becomes Viceroy of India

“Because the successors of the Turkish Ottomans were unwilling and unable to exercise the right to rule many of their Turkish subjects in Eastern Turkistan, Britain evaluated her own right to rule these lands. After the defeat of Britain in Kabul, later British policy abdicated the right to rule Central Asia to Russia.India is considered by many as the successor state to the British Empire in India. Many of India’s leaders think of “India” as the land stretching from the Hindu Kush Mountains to the mythical land of Raj Kumari beyond Bali in Indonesia. These were the lands that Hindus lived in for centuries. After solidly defeating Pakistan in 1971, Indira Gandhi seemed to appreciate this notion of Indian Grandeur beyond the Subcontinent. This means physical control of the territory and also a string of satellite states circumnutating the country itself. Of course, this does not mean physical control of the geographical area thus delineated by Curzon. Unfriendly regimes are not to be tolerated in Indian sphere of influence the “security zones”, Curzon’s concept later refined by President Munro of the United States and named after him as the Munro Doctrine.To understand the historical basis of the Singh Doctrine, and the events in Central Asia, we need to look at some snippets of history.

1813 The Treaty of Gulistan forces the Persian Shah to surrender all his territory north of the River Aras, including Georgia, Baku and naval rights on the Caspian Sea

1835 Dost Mohammad secretly approaches the Russians regarding getting help to recapture Peshawar from Ranjit Singh, an ally of Britain (Oct.)

1839 THE FIRST AFGHAN WAR ENDS IN EARLY CAPTURE OF KABUYL BUT REAL DEFEAT FOR THE BRITISH: Robert Bremmer publishes Excursions in the Interior of Russia and the Marquis de Custine publishes La Russe en 1839, both of which warn of Russia’s designs in Asia. The British invade Afghanistan via the Sind, launching the First Afghan War (spring). The British enter Kabul without a fight, Dost Mohammad having fled (July) 1841 Conolly arrives in Bukhara (Nov.) Burnes and others are murdered by a mob in Kabul (Nov.). Sir William Mcnaghten, political head of the British mission to Kabul, and others are murdered by Mohammad Akbar Khan, son of Dost Mohammad (Dec.)

1842 The British, under General William Elphinstone, leave Kabul after Akbar agrees to guarantee their safety, but are massacred by Afghan tribesmen en route to the British garrison at Jalalabad (Jan.)

Thus the British move into Afghanistan was a total failure and British retreated back to the Khyber Pass and ruled India from the Khyber to Burma.

“Independent India’s first prime minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, shared Curzon’s expansive vision, declaring India “the pivot round which the defense problems of the Middle East, the Indian Ocean, and Southeast Asia revolve.” Wary Chinese strategists perceive a continuity of strategic design from Curzon to the Congress party today, accusing Nehru at that time of harboring ambitions for a “greater Indian empire,” and more recently criticizing India’s aspirations for “global military power.”

“China and India,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s Ashley Tellis, “appeared destined for competition almost from the moment of their creation as modern states.” The New Great Game. Daniel Twining

LANDMINES ON THE ROUTE TO DUSHAMBE: At first glance the Singh move into Dushambe, was nothing less than a diplomatic and military coup. In one stroke the Indian Government “took over” the republic of Tajikistan. Not only did India now have a military base in the Central Asian Republic, but India also gave Tajikistan a loan of $40 million to allow Indian companies to have free reign in the economic aspects of Tajikistan

INDIA WANTED TO THREATEN CHINA CONTAIN PAKISTAN: The Singh strategy goes beyond the desire to clearly encircle Pakistan and face China in the coming few decades. India’s presence in Afghanistan along with her presence in the Central Asian Republic allows her to claim regional status and goes towards her goal of a world power aspiring to become a permanent seat on United National Security Council and a say in world affairs. The current regime in Afghanistan prefers Afghanistan to become an Indian vassal than to remain an independent country tied to Pakistan.

By establishing the military base in Dushambe, India has now painted a red target on herself for not only all those that oppose the governments in those states, but also for her rivals in South and Central Asia, namely, China, Pakistan and Iran. Geographically Tajikistan is north of Pakistan separated by a narrow strip of Afghanistan that was created by the British Raj to separate the British Empire from the Russian Empire. The British had an “on to the Oxus Policy” and a few years later they retreated back to the Khyber pass leaving Afghanistan alone.Unable to control her own militancy in Kashmir, India now is poised to be bogged down in Tajiskistan and Kashmir.

Her charges of the militants moving back and forth between Kashmir, Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics are now to be come a self-fulfilling prophecy, since there is now reason for all the “Hizbs” (Hizb e Tahrir and Hizb e Mujiheen) to cooperate with each other. To understand India’s move, we have to understand the the Central Asian republics are going through what can be described as Civil War.

Of course this is not covered in the mainstream or even the Muslim media. Some even consider America’s move into Afghanistan and Iraq to prevent the establishment of super state in Central Asia that would rival Russia and create a new power center to be dealt with. Neither Bolsevik decimation nor absolute Stalinist brutality, nor Putin’s dictatorship have been able to eliminate the desire of the Muslims of the Valley of Ferghana in Tajikistan, Karghyistan, Kasikhistan, Uzbekistan etc to come together under one flag. To take a peek into current affairs, w are witnissign the birth of a nation. All the growing pains are there. The aspirations of the people of Central Asia may allow them independence and control of their enormous oil wealth.

SINGH VS. REHMAT ALI: The antithesis of the Singh Doctrine is the Chaudry Rehmat Ali Doctrine. We have discussed the Chaudry Rehmat Ali Doctrine as accepted by General Hamid Gul that aspires to establish Pakistan as the focul point of the problems faced by the Central Asian Republics and what India will have to face in the coming decades, if it continues to follow the imperial policy of Lord Curzon.

THE DISASTER IN AFGHANISTAN:

“What Brown and his Foreign Office advisers wilfully fail to understand is that the tactical victory in Afghanistan in 2001, achieved with bombs, has become a strategic disaster in south Asia. Exacerbated by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, the current turmoil in Pakistan has its contemporary roots in a Washington-contrived war in neighbouring Afghanistan that has alienated the Pashtuns who inhabit much of the long border area between the two countries. This is also true of most Pakistanis, who, according to opinion polls, want their government to negotiate a regional peace, rather than play a prescribed part in a rerun of Lord Curzon’s Great Game. John Pilger

PROLOGUE: Ignomious Defeat, Total Annhilation and humiliating Withdrawl.It is now evident that the Vajpayee Doctrine and the Sing Doctrine has failed and India has to vacate it’s base in Tajikistan and beat a hasty retreat back to the Ganges.

Eurasia Insight:Stephen Blank: 1/11/08
RUSSIAN-INDIAN ROW OVER TAJIK BASE SUGGESTS MOSCOW CAUGHT IN DIPLOMATIC VICIOUS CYCLE

India’s strategic ambitions in Central Asia are in flux after Russia reversed an earlier stance, and now opposes the deployment of Indian military jets to an air base in Tajikistan. Russian displeasure over India’s strategic drift toward the United States appears to be the primary reason for the Kremlin’s policy shift.

India and Russia have traditionally had cordial relations, underpinned by New Delhi’s status as a prime buyer of Russian-made arms and military equipment. These strong ties enabled the Kremlin to sanction India’s efforts to establish a strategic beachhead in Central Asia, specifically at a Tajik air base at Ayni, about 15 kilometers outside the capital Dushanbe, and at a medical facility in Farkhor, near the Tajik-Afghan border. India has maintained a presence at the Ayni base since 2002, spending an estimated $1.77 million on upgrading the facility.

From New Delhi’s standpoint, seeking a permanent presence in Central Asia makes both economic and strategic sense. It would improve India’s response capability to a crisis in either Afghanistan or Pakistan, as well as potentially help India’s efforts to secure wider access to Central Asian energy supplies. As recently as mid-2006, reports were circulating that New Delhi was on the verge of deploying as many as 12 MiG fighter-bombers at Ayni — a development that would mark the establishment of India’s first military base beyond its borders. The deployment was initially delayed due to problems with India’s ability to upgrade Ayni. The base was not capable of accommodating the jets until mid 2007, when renovations were finally completed about two years behind schedule.

At about the same time in 2006 that India was contemplating MiG deployment, Russian and Indian diplomats opened discussions on the possibility of enlarging the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), and on India’s possible role within the group. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. By engaging India, Moscow seemed clearly interested in trying to check rising Chinese influence in Central Asia, especially given China’s own efforts to establish a military presence in the region, and for Beijing’s refusal to turn the Shanghai Cooperation Organization into a military alliance.

When India was finally ready to proceed with making Ayni fully operational, Russia was having second thoughts. And during the latter half of 2007, Moscow let it be known that it not only opposed Indian deployment, but it also began pressuring President Imomali Rahmon’s administration in Dushanbe to revoke Indian access to the base. About 150 Indian military personnel, mainly engineers and support staff, have been stationed at Ayni.

Russia’s policy change, according to analysts, is connected to possible shifts in the international arms market. Available sources in India strongly suggest that Moscow is concerned that New Delhi is becoming too close to the United States in general, and, in particular, too close to US defense firms. Over the next few years India is scheduled to buy $40 billion in weapons systems from foreign providers, and already it has released a tender for 126 fighter jets. Military aircraft manufacturers, including the US giants Boeing, General Dynamics and Lockheed Martin, have until late February to submit bids. The American firms are competing against Russia’s Mikoyan Design Bureau, maker of the “MiG” line of combat aircraft.

Indian sources believe that Moscow’s pressure on Dushanbe reflects its anger and apprehension that a valued and long-standing client, namely India, might well turn to Russia’s main rival in the weapons business. This would be a significant loss to Russia’s defense industry since India has been the Russian defense industry’s largest client and longest-serving customer.

Difficulties with recent arms purchases and negotiations have helped spur speculation that India might look elsewhere for weapons. With Moscow’s coffers filled with oil money, the Russian military is in the process of giving itself a total make-over after falling into a state of decay following the Soviet collapse in 1991. Russian defense manufacturers are presently having a tough time keeping up with domestic demand, and this is causing serious delays in the meeting of its export obligations to countries like India and China. In addition to delays, Indian officials have reportedly been miffed by the shoddy quality of some recent deliveries, and Russian efforts to drag out ongoing negotiations in order to extract a higher price.

Given the pattern established by Moscow in its energy dealings, the Ayni base matter may well be Russia’s not-so-subtle way of threatening New Delhi: Either give Mikoyan the military jet contract, or else kiss the base goodbye.

Beyond attempting to pressure both local governments and third parties outside Central Asia by squeezing their interests there, Moscow’s stance toward India betrays growing apprehension about the Kremlin’s geopolitical influence in Central Asia. It is clear that Moscow wishes to have controlling influence over the region’s political and economic affairs. But after experiencing a rapid rise in its influence in 2005-2006, Russian influence may again be on the ebb, as the region’s wealth of energy resources is providing political leaders, especially those in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, with leverage to resist Russian pressure.

As recent energy deals with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan show, it is costing Russia ever more money to obtain energy form Central Asia. Central Asian governments are all increasingly able to conduct a “multi-vector” foreign policy, playing off regional powers — including Russia, China, the United States, and even India — for the maximum political and economic benefit.

In Tajikistan’s case, Dushanbe does not enjoy anywhere near the same level of foreign policy latitude as has been achieved by some of its bigger neighbors, namely Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Even so, Rahmon’s administration has grown more confident in itself over the past few years, as it has managed to establish a tight grip over domestic political life. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Thus, Moscow’s efforts to bully India, and by extension Tajikistan, could easily emerge as a source of irritation in Russian-Tajik relations.

Ultimately, the Ayni base issue highlights the fact that Russia may be caught up in a vicious diplomatic cycle, in which it must rely increasingly on coercion in order to get erstwhile loyal friends and neighbors to go along with the Kremlin’s economic and strategic wishes. Such a cycle can spin for only so long before it experiences a breakdown.

Editor’s Note: Stephen Blank is a professor at the US Army War College. The views expressed this article do not in any way represent the views of the US Army, Defense Department or the US Government.

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