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پا کستان لیجر| PAKISTAN LEDGER | پاکستاني کھاتا | November 27th, 2007  | Moin Ansari | معین آنصآرّی |  | RUPEE NEWS | Moin Ansari | November 27th, 2007 | معین آنصآرّی | اخبار روپیہ |

When the history of the world is written the year 2001 will the year when historians will peg a milestone. That is the year, when the USA at the peak of its power squandered away the tremendous goodwill and respect that people around the world had for America, American values and American freedoms. A new report by the Intelligence Community lists the facts already known around the world-the planet is moving away from a unipolar world to a pre-ww2 world of many poles.

First Afghan Defeat: The British were thrown out. This picture shows the lone British survivor

The “On to the Oxus” policy was revert to “Back to the Indus” policy.

The Second Afghan defeat: The USSR was thrown out

The Third Afghan defeat: NATO-ISAF is suffering

The area under the control of the NATO forces is shrinking

The area under the contorl of the Pashtuns (wrongly labeled as the Taliban) is growing

The Mayor Kabul, Mr. Karzai remains in control of only a tiny portion of Kabul

Mr. Parag Khanna in the “2nd world” clearly states that the China, and Europe and possibly Russia will be the new poles. He also says that India has missed the boat superpower status again. Cowed down by penury, 89 insurgencies and wars with all her neighbors, India had the opportunity in the 50s, and in the past six decades to make peace with her neighbors and abandon its revanchist irredentist policies. It took the socialistic route and kept not only itself, but also all of South Asia –as the only island of poverty in Asia. The new poles will be China and the US and Europe with other regional powers like Israel, Brazil, South Africa, Nigeria, Australia, Pakistan, Indonesia, and India who will vie for power to make the second ad third tier.

Few political scientists have fully identified the inherent risks of direct US action in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. Not only will this generate a tsunami of anti-Americanism, it will also push the miscreants to the urban areas of Pakistan destabilizing the country. Al-Qaeda will thrive in chaos and threaten the government and the people of Pakistan.The push theory (pushing miscreants out of one area) does not work. When the Police raids a street gang on a street, they simply move over to the next street. The solution is a comprehensive plan to interdict drugs and create alternative employment for the youth. Similarly fighting terror is a two pronged strategy. An unstable Pakistan is bad for the entire planet. The solution is a massive “Marshall Plan” for Pakistan, which creates incentives for the people to earn a proper living. To start with, the US should abolish the quotas and subsidies on textiles. This will enhance Pakistani exports and provide jobs to the youth.

Action in Afghanistan pushed many people into the tribal areas of Pakistan. Pushing them out of FATA will push them deep into Pakistan. When an anti-Pakistan government was installed in Kabul, surely Pakistanis were not happy. The geo-strategic interests of Pakistan have to be taken into account. Neither the government, nor the people of Pakistan have signed up for indentured servitude to carry on the follies of a broken foreign policy that supports an incompetent and corrupt non-representative non-Pushton, minority “government” (actually institutionalized narco-warlordism) in Kabul. The NATO troops are teething on annihilation by the anti-occupation insurgent (wrongly labeled as “Talibaan”). All of Afghanistan is in revolt against the “occupiers”. All this has created immense problems for Pakistan, and Pakistanis are not too happy fighting Pakistanis……neither Musharraf nor anyone else supports Pakistanis fighting Pakistanis. The Tribal areas are “tribal”. They joined Pakistan under treaty obligations that allowed them total autonomy…that was the deal for joining the Federation. They have helped Pakistan for the past 60 years. The articles of the confederation of the constitution of Pakistan cannot be changed because of failed US policies in Afghanistan. NATO and America needs to build peace by wining the hearts and minds of Afghans not by cluster bombs and missiles.

Already all the roads to Kabul are in Talib control. America made a critical mistake in imposing a non-Pashtun Northern Alliance anti-Pakistan Karzai government in Kabul. Pakistan and Pashtuns will never tolerate a Northern Alliance government in Kabul. The worst thing America can do right now, is to invade the FATA areas. This will unite the Talibs as never before, and the fall of Kabul will be expedited. Pakistan has long advocated compromise with the “good” Talibs. This would bring credibility to Kabul’s embattled regime and bring peace to the war torn region.American policy makers are blind to all this. Just like they never found WMDs in Iraq, they will never find OBL in Pakistan. Find one person is irrelevant anyway. The despair has to be eliminated with education, jobs and prosperity. Pakistani cooperation is crucial in this part of the world. NATO actions and bellicose statements by prominent Americans are destabilizing a country of 150 million people which will have long term consequences for India, China, the Central Asian republics, Iran, and the world. Russia is not happy with the Indian love affair with the USA. If attempts to destabilize Pakistan continue a major realignment of forces may occur, and Pakistan may join Iran and create a nexus with China and Russia.  

We need to develop a “Pull theory” which would pull the insurgents into more productive endeavors like employment and economic prosperity.